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Predictions market measures Glenn testimony

Predictions market measures Glenn testimony fallout

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Revelations by Owen Glenn at today's Privileges Committee increased Winston Peters' likelihood of losing his job as Minister of Foreign Affairs to 84% according to traders on iPredict, New Zealand's first real money prediction market.

In a flurry of trading, stock on Mr Peters' resignation or sacking rose over 5% in the space of about 90 minutes following Mr Glenn's disclosures before the Committee.

"The political cost of Mr Glenn's revelations is being measured in real time by traders on iPredict," said iPredict's Chief Executive Matt Burgess.

"That cost is exactly 5.5%, the change in the trading price of Mr Peters' resignation stock before and after Mr Glenn's testimony."

Stock in Mr Peters' resignation or sacking had settled at around 78 cents in trading when Mr Glenn commenced his testimony. Within 30 minutes it had climbed to 80.7 cents, and when news reports about Mr Glenn's testimony filtered through at 4pm, heavy trading saw Mr Peters' stock climb steeply to 84.1 cents. This price corresponds to a likelihood of 84.1% that Mr Peters will resign or be sacked as Foreign Minister before the election.

"What we saw today demonstrates the value of prediction markets – their unique and powerful ability to measure the political value of news in real-time," Mr Burgess said.

"It’s like running a poll every minute of every day for an entire election campaign."

Prediction markets harness the wisdom of crowds and have earned a reputation for extraordinary accuracy since their invention in the US in 1988.

iPredict launched on September 9 and is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR). It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education.

Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.


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