Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

Peters' sacking chances plummet on prediction site


Peters' sacking chances plummet on prediction website


Click for big version


Stocks in Winston Peters' sacking fell sharply in record trading on iPredict following Helen Clark's decision not to sack Mr Peters this morning.

In the minutes following the Prime Minister's announcement, traders dumped Peters stock, indicating a view that Mr Peters may not lose his job in the run up to the election.

As Miss Clark delivered her statement, stock in Mr Peters’ sacking was trading at 92 cents, meaning traders gave a 92% probability that Mr Peters would resign or be sacked as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Within 30 minutes of Miss Clark's announcement, the Peters stock had dropped to 78 cents, recovered to 82 cents by mid-afternoon, then plunged to 69 cents at 7pm tonight (Thursday 11 September).

More than 10,000 stocks in Mr Peters' resignation or sacking were traded, a site record.

iPredict’s Chief Executive, Matt Burgess, said dramatic price changes reflected the importance of the new information as it arrived.

"These price changes are traders' reactions to new information. Trading measures the effect of the Prime Minister's announcement, which is precisely why we run iPredict."


Click for big version


Labour's re-election likelihood increased 3 cents to 26 cents after Miss Clark's announcement, indicating a 26% likelihood of a Labour-led government next year.

iPredict launched on September 9 and is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR). It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education.

Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Back Again: Government Approves TPP11 Mandate

The Government has approved a negotiating mandate for Trans-Pacific Partnership 11 (TPP11), which will ensure New Zealand businesses remain competitive in overseas markets.

Trade Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand will be pushing for the minimal number of changes possible to the original TPP agreement, something that the remaining TPP11 countries have agreed on. More>>

ALSO:

.

 
 

Gordon Campbell: On Why Labour Isn’t Responsible For Barnaby Joyce

As a desperate Turnbull government tries to treat the Barnaby Joyce affair as a Pauline Hanson fever dream – blame it on the foreigners! We’re the victims of the dastardly New Zealand Labour Party! – our own government has chosen to further that narrative, and make itself an accomplice. More>>

ALSO:

Rail: Greens Back Tauranga – Hamilton – Auckland Service

The Green Party today announced that it will trial a passenger rail service between Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga starting in 2019, when it is in government. More>>

ALSO:

Housing: Voluntary Rental Warrant Of Fitness For Wellington

Wellington City Council is partnering with the University of Otago, Wellington, to launch a voluntary Rental Warrant of Fitness for minimum housing standards in Wellington, Mayor Justin Lester has announced. More>>

ALSO:

Treaty: Agreement In Principle Signed With Moriori

“The Crown acknowledges Moriori was left virtually landless from 1870, hindering its cultural, social and economic development. The Crown also acknowledges its contribution to the myths that the people of Moriori were racially inferior and became extinct." More>>

ALSO:

Susan Devoy: Call For Inquiry Into State Abuse Reaches UN

Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy is in Geneva and has asked a United Nations committee to urge the New Zealand government to initiate an inquiry into the physical and sexual abuse of children and disabled people held in state institutions. More>>

ALSO:

(Not National): Cross-Party Agreement On Pike River Re-Entry

The commitment was signed this afternoon by the leaders of Labour, United Future, The Maori Party, and the Green Party and, together with the earlier commitment by New Zealand First, means that there is now a Parliamentary majority behind the families’ fight for truth and justice. More>>

ALSO:

Earlier:

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

Featured InfoPages

Opening the Election
 
 
 
  • PublicAddress
  • Pundit
  • Kiwiblog