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National Wins Leaders' Debate – iPredict Traders

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National Wins First Leaders' Debate – iPredict Traders


National's chances of leading the next government increased by 5.1% during the first leaders' debate according to traders on iPredict, New Zealand’s online futures prediction market.

Labour's leadership chances fell 4.4% during the debate and this morning Labour was trading with a 25% chance of leading the next government. The result gives John Key a decisive victory over Helen Clark in their first debate.

"Traders must have decided National's chances of an election victory were improved by Mr Key's performance. We saw rapid real time changes in the contract price as traders reacted to the live broadcast. This is exactly why we run iPredict," said iPredict CEO Matt Burgess.

The largest price movement occurred about 15 minutes into the debate as traders saw signs Mr Key would not be dominated by his more-experienced opponent. Prices moved in National's favour again in the second half of the debate as the leaders discussed climate change.

Contracts on iPredict pay $1 each if a defined event comes true and the prices that these contracts trade for is the prediction. For example, contract PM.NATIONAL, which pays $1 if National leads the next government, is trading at $0.74, which can be interpreted as a 74% likelihood at a given time of Labour winning the election.

iPredict is owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation. It is authorised by the Securities Commission as a futures dealer. The primary purpose of iPredict is research and education. Anybody can browse iPredict and see the predictions for free by going to www.iPredict.co.nz. Traders must be 18 years and older to set up an account. Accounts are free to set up and people can start trading with as little as $5.


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