Te Tai Tokerau Voters Support Harawira In TV Poll
TUESDAY OCTOBER 28 2008
Te Tai Tokerau Voters Support Harawira In Maori Television Poll
A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that Maori Party MP Hone Harawira holds a comfortable lead (69 per cent) over Labour's Kelvin Davis (19 per cent) as the leading candidate in Te Tai Tokerau. Slightly more than one in 10 voters in this electorate, however, has yet to decide who they will select as their preferred candidate.
At the party vote level, the Labour Party (42 per cent) holds a clear lead over the Maori Party (35 per cent). This split in party vote support is similar to the poll results gained in the electorate of Te Tai Hauauru. Back in the northern Maori electorate, National wins just 11 per cent of Maori votes while NZ First (six per cent) and the Greens (five per cent) attract similar levels of party vote. Sixteen per cent of this electorate's sample of 500 Maori voters are still undecided or will not vote.
The special analysis of Maori voters' opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in Te Tai Tokerau was unveiled tonight (Tuesday October 28) on KOWHIRI '08 - a series of political programmes screening on Maori Television every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5.
The next political poll will focus on the Maori electorate of Te Tai Tonga (Wednesday October 29) followed by Hauraki Waikato (Tuesday November 4); and Ikaroa Rawhiti (Wednesday November 5).
Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the research in Te Tai Tokerau polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered on Te Tai Tokerau Maori roll between October 14 to 23 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
Just on a third (34 per cent) of this sample most preferred Helen Clark to be their Prime Minister - a result which is consistent across the four Maori electorates polled so far. Winston Peters is clearly the next most preferred candidate for PM with 14 per cent support. Pita Sharples (eight per cent), John Key (seven per cent) and Tariana Turia (six per cent) gathered minor levels of support to be Prime Minister. Again, there is a relatively high proportion (22 per cent) of voters who have no opinion as to which politician would be the best Prime Minister.
Similar to the polls in the other three Maori electorates, the following four issues were rated as the most pressing for Maori in Te Tai Tokerau: access to quality education for their children (92 per cent - very important); positive future for their children (89 per cent); a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out on the street (87 per cent); and access to affordable quality health services (84 per cent). Of secondary importance are the issues of: good jobs in my area (77 per cent); access to affordable quality housing in my area (68 per cent); and fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims (64 per cent).
Compared to Te Tai Hauauru, voters interviewed in Te Tai Tokerau were less convinced that the Labour Party would be best placed to deliver on these important issues facing them. While 42 per cent of this electorate's sample regarded Labour as being best placed to deliver on quality education for their children, only 32 per cent believed that Labour could ensure a positive future for their children.
Slightly more of this sample felt that the Maori Party (34 per cent) would best deliver a positive future for their local people. And, in terms of ensuring a sense of safety on the streets and in their homes, no party could claim any real leadership with 28 per cent of the voters believing that either Labour or the Maori Party would be best placed to deliver on this issue.
MMP VOTING - PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?
Party Vote %
Maori Party 35
NZ First 6
Green Party 5
United Future -
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2
Family Party 0.5
All others 0.2
Base (those with an opinion) 418
Don't know/undecided 15
Would not vote 1
Total Sample 500
PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE - TE TAI
Te Tai Tokerau Candidate Candidate %
Hone Harawira (Maori Party) 69
Kelvin Davis (Labour) 19
Peter Tashkoff (ACT) 1
Other candidates 11
Base (those with an opinion) 440
Don't know 9
Total Sample 500
Main candidates Total %
Helen Clark 34
Winston Peters 14
Pita Sharples 8
John Key 7
Tariana Turia 6
Jim Anderton 0.6
Tim Barnett 0.4
Others (less than 0.5%) 8.
Don't know 17
IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN TE TAI TOKERAU:
Issue Very important % Quite important
% Not that important % Of no importance to me % Don't know
not applicable %
Quality education for my children 92.2 6.2 0.4 0.2 1.0
Access to affordable quality health services 84.2 13.0 1.8 0.2 0.8
Fair settlement of treaty claims 64.4 21.6 9.0 2.8 2.2
Good jobs in my area 77.0 16.8 4.2 0.8 1.2
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area 68.2 21.6 7.4 0.8 2.0
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street 87.0 9.8 2.4 0.0 0.8
My children will have a positive future 88.6 7.4 1.6 0.4 2.0
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:
Issue Labour Party
% Maori Party
% National Party
% NZ First
% Green Party
% Don't know
Your children receive quality education 42.4 25.8 13.0 3.0 2.4 2.8 10.6
You can access affordable quality health services 40.8 29.2 7.8 4.6 3.6 2.6 11.4
There is fair settlement of treaty claims 19.2 64.2 3.8 1.8 1.0 1.6 8.4
There are good jobs in my area 40.4 23.4 11.6 1.6 1.8 5.6 15.6
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area 40.2 30.0 8.2 1.2 1.8 4.0 14.6
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street 28.2 27.6 18.6 5.0 1.8 5.4 13.4
Your children will have a positive future 32.4 33.6 11.6 3.2 5.2 2.4 11.6
WHICH TE TAI HAUAURU CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:
Statements Hone Harawira (Maori Party)
% Kelvin Davis (Labour)
% Peter Tashkoff (ACT)
% Other candidates
% Don't know
Can be trusted 48.4 20.6 3.0 16.6 8.8 18.8
Will deliver on promises 49.4 21.2 2.4 12.4 7.6 19.4
Knows the needs of the local people 67.8 16.2 2.4 15 2.8 13.4
Is experienced in politics 60.0 16.6 3.2 13.2 4.0 18.0
Is a capable leader 59.4 19.2 3.2 11 4.8 16.0
Would be good in a crisis 56.6 19.6 3.6 16.4 5.2 17.4
Has lots of personality 71.4 11.2 2.0 9.6 1.8 14.0
Maori Television's coverage of the 2008 General Election - KOWHIRI '08 - is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panelists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. It screens every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5 with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.