Hone Harawira to win Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or representing a party other than the Maori Party

• Probability of new left-wing party rises
• New Zealand First drops below 5% threshold
• National/Act/UnitedFuture to have numbers to govern with or without Maori Party
• Contracts for East Coast Bays, Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Whanganui to be launched at noon today

Commentary:

Rebel Maori Party MP Hone Harawira is now expected to win his Te Tai Tokerau electorate as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, indicates. The change in prices follows disciplinary action against Mr Harawira being initiated by his colleagues after a column he wrote in the Sunday Star-Times. National’s John Key continues to be expected to remain Prime Minister, and could govern with the support of the Act and UnitedFuture parties.

Since last week’s snapshot, the probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and Mr Harawira has increased from 15% to 33%, but remains below 50%. The probability of a new right-wing party around former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash remains lower, steady at 11%. Page 2 of 3

All current party leaders are expected to retain their positions. The most vulnerable is now Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia, with a 12% probability of her leaving that role prior to the election. The probability of Labour Leader Phil Goff losing his position is now down to 11%, from 17% last week and 31% before Christmas.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 43.4% (steady compared with last week), Labour 32.5% (down from 34.9%) Greens 7.8% (steady), Act 3.4% (up from 3.1%), New Zealand First 3.4% (down from 5.9%), UnitedFuture 2.4% (steady) and the Maori Party 2.2% (down from 2.3%). Other parties are now expected to win 2.2% of the vote, up from 1.8% last week.

Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 66% probability of winning Epsom for his party, up from 65% probability last week, and UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne a 50% probability of being re-elected in Ohariu, up from 45% probability last week.

While Mr Harawira is now expected to retain Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party, the Maori Party is expected to retain its other four seats and win Ikaroa-Rawhiti (55% probability, down from 57% last week).

New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters is not forecast to be returned to Parliament.

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 57 MPs, Labour 43 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, the Maori Party 5 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would be 123 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.

National, Act and UnitedFuture would have a combined 64 MPs and could govern with or without the Maori Party. A Labour-led government could only be formed with the support of all of the Greens, the Maori Party, UnitedFuture and Mr Harawira.

The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (78% probability, steady from last week).

Because the situations in Te Tai Tokerau and Ikaroa-Rawhiti remain finely balanced, iPredict has also analysed what would happen based on all politically plausible outcomes in those electorates. In all scenarios, a National/Act/UnitedFuture Government could be formed, with or without the Maori Party.

There are no surprises in any of the electorate races for which stocks were launched last week. Labour’s Brendon Burns has an 87% chance of retaining Christchurch Central, Labour’s Kris Faafoi an 88% chance of retaining Mana, Page 3 of 3

National’s Chris Tremain an 86% chance of retaining Napier and National’s Maurice Williamson a 92% chance of retaining Pakuranga.

Other than Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Ohariu, and Te Tai Tokerau mentioned above, electorates where the predicted winner has less than a 65% probability of winning are New Plymouth (63% probability to be won by Labour’s Andrew Little from National’s Jonathan Young), Te Tai Tonga (63% probability to be retained by the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene) and Waitakere (53% probability to be won by Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni from National’s Paula Bennett).

There is an 81% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, down from 83% last week.

iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The company will be providing full election coverage this year, including of every electorate race in the country. Bundles of contracts for every electorate will be launched progressively through to the end of March. Contract bundles will be launched at noon today for the East Coast Bays, Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Whanganui electorates.

The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties. This week’s was taken at 7.51 am today.

ENDS

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