Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


$7.8 billion deficit forecast for 2011/12

$7.8 billion deficit forecast for 2011/12

A big cut to Working for Families income limits will help slash the fiscal deficit to approximately $7.8 billion in 2011/12 and pave the way for a return to surplus in 2014/15, one year earlier than forecast in last year's Budget.

That's the combined view of the thousands of traders this week on New Zealand's online prediction market, iPredict Ltd, owned by Victoria University of Wellington.

The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said there had been very heavy trading on iPredict's Budget 2011 stocks earlier in the week although volumes fell yesterday probably as a result of a consensus view being formed.

"Anyone can open an iPredict account and start trading and we believe those with an insight into New Zealand's economy and political decision-making processes have been among those who have taken advantage to trade on our Budget stocks," he said.

Mr Burgess said big cuts to Working for Families income limits were forecast, with iPredict using the income limit for parental tax credits for a family with four children as an indicator stock.

"This year, the income limit for parental tax credits for a family with four children is over $166,000 but iPredict traders are saying they believe it will be slashed to around $112,000 next year," he said.

"Partly as a result of that, traders expect the fiscal deficit to fall from the 8% of GDP talked about for 2011/12 to 3.9% of GDP in 2011/12 - or around $7.8 billion, assuming a $200 billion economy.

"A 2011/12 deficit of 3.9% of GDP would be much worse than the 2.5% of GDP deficit forecast for that year in last year's Budget, although many would see it in the context of the Christchurch earthquakes and the South Canterbury Finance and AMI bailouts.

"One improvement from last year's Budget forecasts is that iPredict traders now expect the Government's accounts to return to surplus in 2014/15 compared with last year's Budget which forecast no return to surplus until 2015/16.

"It will be interesting later today to see how close iPredict's forecasts are to the forecasts to be announced by Finance Minister Bill English," he said.

iPredict uses Total Crown Operating Deficit Before Gains and Losses as its indicator of the fiscal deficit.

Details on iPredict and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Another Reason To Loathe HR Departments (And On The Teachers Strike)

This morning’s news item about Police emergency call centre staff turning up for work while they’re sick – because they’re afraid their sick leave statistics will be used against them, and their jobs put in jeopardy – is not an isolated case...

Obviously, sick people shouldn’t be being treated by doctors and nurses who are themselves sick and potentially infectious. Similarly, Police emergency calls also need to be fielded by people who’re feeling alert, and on top of their game. More>>


MPs' Computers To Be Searched: Inquiry Into Leak On Simon Bridges' Expenses

An inquiry has been launched to find out who leaked the National Party's expenses to the media... Parliament's speaker, Trevor Mallard, said a Queen's Counsel would lead the inquiry with the help of an employment lawyer and also someone with forensic IT skills. More>>


Teachers Strike: Nationwide Rallies And Marches

Teachers and principals voted for a full day strike to be held on 15 August to send a strong message to the Government that the current collective agreement offers from the Ministry of Education would not fix the crisis in teaching. More>>


Wellington.Scoop: City Council Ends Its Support For Jackson’s Movie Museum

The Wellington City Council and the Movie Museum Limited have today announced a mutually-agreed parting of the ways for a joint project between the Council’s Convention Centre and TMML’s Movie Museum... Both parties remain optimistic for the future of their respective projects. More>>

Pay Equity: Historic Settlement For Education Support Workers

The New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) and the Ministry of Education today signed Terms of Settlement to address a pay equity claim for 329 support workers who work with very young children in early childhood and primary schools. More>>


Gordon Campbell: On The Stereotypes About Jacinda Ardern

Routinely, female politicians get depicted as either show ponies or battle axes, with little room for anything else in between. .. More>>

Weekend Interviews: "Discriminatory And Racist" Aussie Deportations

The former president of Australia’s Human Rights Commission Gillian Triggs says deportations have risen dramatically in Australia since 2014 when ministers and ministerial delegates were given the power to cancel visas - and half of those being deported are New Zealanders. "These are massive numbers, actually escalating dramatically."... More>>


Legal Challenge: Prisoner Has 9 Boxes Of Documents Seized

Human rights organisation People Against Prisons Aotearoa says a prisoner they advocate for has had 9 boxes of legal documents seized from him just days before his case against the Department of Corrections was to be heard. More>>

Single-Use Plastic Bags: Govt To Phase Them Out

Single-use plastic shopping bags will be phased out over the next year, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage announced today. More>>





Featured InfoPages