Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Bean Poll Set To Predict Another Election Winner

October 31 , 2011

Bean Poll Set To Predict Another Election Winner

A consumer poll that involves voters putting coffee beans in plastic holders has advantages over traditional polling methodologies, says a top academic expert.

Dr Andrew Balemi, from the University of Auckland’s Department of Statistics, says the Muffin Break Bean Poll, held by the muffin and coffee chain since 2002, takes into consideration the communal strategy employed by voters, unlike traditional phone polls.

Held a month prior to the last three general elections, the Bean Poll has predicted the winning party every time – even in 2005 when the Labour Party won with a narrow margin over National.

Dr Balemi, whose area of expertise is in polls, surveys, market research and consumer behaviour, says the Muffin Break Bean Poll has advantages over other polling methodologies.

“While there’s been no external validation* of the Bean Poll’s accuracy on scientific principles, it’s certainly fun. It strikes me as a low tech equivalent of election prediction markets which are popular in the United States and have proven to be reasonably accurate in the past,” he says.

“One thing that the Bean Poll does have as opposed to a prediction method such as a telephone poll is that it takes into account the social aspect of the decision-making process whereby voters use the information from other voters to vote tactically.”

The Bean Poll is the largest of its kind in New Zealand. More than 120,000 people cast their vote for their preferred party with a coffee bean in the month leading up to the 2008 general election.

Starting tomorrow and running throughout the four weeks leading up to this year’s November 26 election, customers at Muffin Break’s 36 stores from Whangarei to Dunedin will each be given a coffee bean, which they can use to vote for their preferred party by placing it in the relevant holder in-store.

The results are then tallied to give an overall picture of how Kiwis will vote on election day.

Muffin Break General Manager Garry Croft says the Bean Poll has become more and more popular every election year and 2011 will be no exception.

Additionally, for the first time this election people will also be able to cast their vote online as well as in-store.

“We love having a bit of fun around the election and feedback from our customers every time we have run the Bean Poll shows that they love it too,” says Mr Croft.

“Plus, if it gets people thinking about the election and who they will vote for on November 26, we’ve played a part in the democratic process.”

For more information, or to cast your vote online, visit www.muffinbreak.co.nz.

*This would entail finding out, for example, if people are representative of eligible voters throughout New Zealand which would be very difficult to prove and spoil the spontaneity of the process.

About Muffin Break
Encompassing over 200 sweet and savoury muffin recipes, Muffin Break is renowned for their freshly baked goods prepared daily onsite, providing an irresistible range of baked products as well as Muffin Break’s distinctive blend of espresso coffee.

First launched in 1989, Muffin Break has since grown to 177 stores in Australia, 33 in the United Kingdom, 36 in New Zealand and two in Dubai. Muffin Break operates under the Foodco Group. The Foodco Group is an Australian franchise company which comprises over 300 retail outlets trading through the Muffin Break specialty bakery, Jamaica Blue cafes and Dreamy Donut stores. Foodco currently operates in Australia, New Zealand, USA, Kuwait, Dubai, the UK, China.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Two Dead, One Injured: Suspect Charged After Ashburton Shooting

Russell John Tully has appeared in Christchurch District Court. Tully has been remanded in custody on charges of murder of Peg Noble and Leigh Cleveland and attempted murder of Lindy Curtis.

The victim’s families and the victim have requested that their privacy be respected and will not be making a statement at this time.

Police have formed a picture of what has occurred yesterday and are appealing for further information and sightings .... More

 

Parliament Today:

John Key Press Conference: Ashburton Shootings, Judith Collins Inquiry

Prime Minister John Key has delayed the release of Nationals’ fiscal policy in light of this morning’s shooting at a Work and Income office in Ashburton... Key also answered questions about Judith Collins, and confirmed that independent inquiry will be held with regard to allegations made against Collins. More>>

ALSO:

Internet MANA: Georgina Beyer Rocks The Waka

“There is now, and always will be, a range of views about many issues within our movement and members are free to express them, but Georgina’s views on Kim Dotcom are not shared by the MANA Movement leadership or the vast majority of MANA members and supporters around the country” states MANA Candidate for Waiariki, Annette Sykes. More>>

ALSO:

IGIS Update: Inquiry Into Release Of NZSIS Information

The Inquiry would be conducted in private and individuals would appear before her separately over a period of more than a week. She does not intend to name those summoned to give evidence until her report is published. “I can confirm that all persons summoned will be required to appear under oath...” More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell:
On John Key’s ‘Blame It On Judith’ Strategy

Right now, Prime Minister John Key seems intent on limiting the scope of any inquiry into his government’s dealings with Cameron Slater. The declared aim is to make that inquiry solely about Judith Collins’ behavior with respect to the Serious Fraud Office. More>>

ALSO:

Maori Council Lawyers' Statement: Supreme Court Decision On Maori Water Rights

“…the Supreme Court refused to give Pouakani people what they asked for, but may have given them something much, much better instead… the Supreme Court has questioned whether the Crown owns the River at all.” More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Debate, And The Collins Accusation

Debating is a peculiar discipline in that what you say is less important than how you’re saying it. Looking poised, being articulate and staying on topic generally wins the day – and on that score, Labour leader David Cunliffe won what turned out to be a bruising encounter with Prime Minister John Key last night on TVNZ. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Winston Peters' Latest Bout Of Immigrant Bashing

It is only one poll, but rather than cannibalising each other's vote, Colin Craig and Winston Peters do seem to be managing to find the room to co-exist... Few are questioning how Peters got to this happy place, and what it says about the mood of the electorate. More>>

ALSO:

More Immigration News: First People Trafficking Charges

The first people trafficking charges in New Zealand have been brought by Immigration New Zealand (INZ)... The defendants have been charged under the Crimes Act 1961 for arranging by deception the entry of 18 Indian nationals into New Zealand. More>>

Collins 'Misinterprets Media Reports': "Too Compromised To Remain Justice Minister"

Bizarre claims by Judith Collins this morning that she had been cleared of inappropriate behaviour by the Privacy Commissioner demonstrates she is too compromised to remain Justice Minister, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news