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What's On The Secret Teapot Tape?

Wednesday, 16 November 2011, 8:30 am
Press Release: iPredict

What's On The Secret Teapot Tape?

New Zealand's online predictions market, iPredict, has today launched new stocks asking about the content of the so-called "teapot tape".

Prime Minister John Key and Act Party Epsom candidate John Banks met for tea on Friday and their conversation was recorded by Bradley Ambrose, formerly known as Brad White. Act leader Don Brash did not attend the meeting.

The Herald on Sunday and TV3 have reported that they have obtained the recording but its contents remain unknown. Mr Key has asked the police to investigate the circumstances of the recording. The Deputy Editor of the Herald on Sunday, Jonathan Milne, says the contents of the recording are potentially a "game-changer" for the election. The Political Editor of TV3, Duncan Garner, disagrees but says the contents are "interesting and raise some questions for Key and Banks".

The new stocks launched by iPredict today are as follows:

* Tea Pot Tape to NOT be released before Election Day: https://www.ipredictco.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.NORELEASE

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks criticised Brash: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS1

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks predict NZ First likely to secure 5% party vote: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS2

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks predict Greens to a secure lower party vote than current polls suggest: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.phpdo=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS3

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks discuss planned but unannounced policy initiatives: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS4

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks suggest Brash should or will be replaced as ACT leader: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS5

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks critical of National Cabinet Ministers: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS6

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks critical of support party MPs: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS7

* Tea Pot Tape to show Key and/or Banks discussed future role for Banks and/or Brash: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.COMMENTS8

* Tea Pot Tape to be released but not show Key and/or Banks making comments as described above: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=TAPE.NOCOMMENTS

The price of each stock will indicate the probability that that event will occur. If the event occurs, the stock will close at $1. If it does not, the stock will close at 40. This means, for example, that if the stock on Mr Key and/or Mr Banks criticising Dr Brash trades at 35c, that suggests the probability the tape will be released and will reveal Mr Key and/or Mr Banks criticising Dr Brash is 35%.

As outlined in the terms of these contracts, traders in these contracts acknowledge the inherent subjectivity of the question and that iPredict's decision on closing price is final. iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at http://www.ipredict.co.nz

ENDS

 
 
 
 
 
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