iPredict 2011 Daily Election Update #3 - Teapot Special

iPredict Ltd
2011 Daily Election Update #3
16 November 11
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.ipredict.co.nz

Main Movers

* Stocks launched yesterday on the content of the teacup tape suggest a 57% probability that the tape will be released before Election Day. There is also a 50% probability that it will include Prime Minister John Key and/or Act's Epsom candidate John Banks suggesting that Don Brash should be replaced as the ACT leader, and a 50% probability that Mr Key and/or Mr Banks criticised Dr Brash.

* National's party vote remains stable at 47% and the party could govern with its choice of the Greens, Act, Maori Party or UnitedFuture

* UnitedFuture has fallen below 1% party vote, though Peter Dunne is still predicted to win Ohariu

The Parties

National 47.0% n/c 60 MPs
Labour 28.5% n/c 36 MPs
Greens 11.3% +0.2% 14 MPs
New Zealand First 4.6% +0.6% 0 MPs
Act 3.1% -0.1% 4 MPs
Mana Party 2.0% n/c 3 MPs
Conservative 1.6% n/c 0 MPs
Maori Party 1.3% n/c 3 MPs
UnitedFuture 0.9% -0.1% 1 MP

Stratos: iPredict Election 2011

iPredict is now featured on TV five nights a week, with political insiders sharing their views and tips on a range of iPredict stocks.

Watch iPredict Election 2011, Stratos (Sky 89, Freeview 21) weeknights at 700 pm
Last night's episode can be found at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXe0Bgn3d10

Tonight's guests: National's Tauranga MP Simon Bridges and Labour's Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson

Tonight's topics:

1) Has the teacup tape saga been handled well by the National Party, and has going to the Police made things worse?
2) In the wake of Green Party activist's attack on National Billboards, have the Greens kept their middle class respectability but without alienating their base?
3) National has just announced welfare reforms which will require beneficiaries to be drug tested; is this the sort of policy that will help John Key be re-elected as Prime Minister?

Fineprint

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. All of the election 2011 stocks, along with political analysis, can be found at www.electionresults.co.nz The daily election snapshot replaces the weekly political snapshot for the final two weeks of the election campaign. It is taken at a random time each day to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. Today's was taken at 10:00 am.

ENDS