Nats Set For Election Victory, But No Majority As NZF Rises

Today’s Special Election Eve New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set to be re-elected tomorrow, but falling short of gaining a majority in its own right. National has 49.5% (down 3.5%) of the party vote well ahead of second party Labour (23.5%, down 1%) and a surging Greens (14.5%, up 1.5%).

Support for New Zealand First (6.5%, up 3.5%) has increased after Leader Winston Peters gained public attention when he revealed parts of the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal to the public, and his action may result in his party’s surprise return to Parliament after failing to win a seat at the 2008 New Zealand election.

Support for the other minor parties shows ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%) unlikely to retain their seats in Parliament while the Maori Party 1% (down 2%) and Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) will closely contest the seven Maori seats.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 18 points to 118.5 – with 49.5% (down 11%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 7%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister John Key is set to be re-elected tomorrow to a second-term in Government, however Key may fall agonisingly short of being able to govern in his own right as the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal looks set to cost Key’s National an outright majority in Parliament – and return outspoken New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters to Parliament after his party failed to win a seat the 2008 New Zealand Election.

“National (49.5%, down 3.5%) has lost support in the wake of the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal – and also Key’s underwhelming performance in Monday night’s Leaders Debate – The Roy Morgan Reactor of uncommitted voters scored the debate 54% Opposition Leader Phil Goff cf. 46% John Key. Despite Goff’s victory on Monday, Labour has not benefited (23.5%, down 1%) and looks set for a record low vote.

“The Greens (14.5%, up 1.5%) will emerge as clearly New Zealand’s third party and look set win between 10- 15 seats – the first time they will have more than 9 seats. However, it is the re-emergence of New Zealand First (6.5%, up 3.5%) that is set to be the big story tomorrow as Peters may lead his party into the balance of power on the back of his revelations concerning the ‘Teapot Tape’ Scandal and as many as 7 seats in the new Parliament.

“When considering today’s results it must be remembered that at the 2008 New Zealand election the final NZ Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.3% and underestimated the Maori Party by 1.4%. These figures may be repeated tomorrow as the Greens traditionally fail to man all the polling booths on election day which lowers their final vote – however the late increase in the Greens vote comes after the decisive stand taken by the Green Party against election billboard ‘vandal’ Jolyon White and his wife, Anne Heins, who was stood down from her role as co-Leader Russel Norman’s secretary.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide crosssection of 959 electors from November 22-24, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 4%) didn’t name a party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4

Finding No. 4724 is taken from Computer Report No. 2345

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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