Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


iPredict - Political Update Nov 29 - Labour and Cabinet

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update

Tuesday 29 November 2011


Key Points

* Unusual trading in stocks on the next Labour Leader is suggestive of irrational exuberance by supporters of candidates David Parker, David Cunliffe, David Shearer and Grant Robertson - with the sum of the probabilities of the four candidates well over 100%, creating certain profits for traders if they short all these stocks.

* With that proviso, the market suggests Mr Parker remains favourite to replace Phil Goff as Labour leader (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.PARKER), followed closely by Mr Cunliffe (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.CUNLIFFE), with Mr Shearer (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.SHEARER) and Mr Robertson (https://www.ipredictco.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=LABLEAD.ROBERTSN) well behind.

* iPredict's new stocks on the new Cabinet at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=322 currently suggest that a 20-member Cabinet would consist of:
1. John Key
2. Bill English
3. Gerry Brownlee
4. Steven Joyce
5. Tony Ryall
6. Paula Bennett
7. Judith Collins
8. Hekia Parata
9. Nick Smith
10. Anne Tolley
11. Tim Groser
12. David Carter
13. Jonathan Coleman
14. Murray McCully
15. Craig Foss
16. Amy Adams
17. Phil Heatley
18. Kate Wilkinson
19. Nathan Guy
20. Chris Tremain

* The market suggests a 97% probability Bill English will remain Minister of Finance and an 88% probability that Judith Collins will become Minister of Justice but just a 53% probability Jonathan Coleman will remain Minister of Immigration. New portfolio contracts will be released this afternoon.

* Act, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture all have more than 90% probability of having at least one Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the next Government.

* New stocks on whether or not final seat allocations will reflect election-night results have been launched at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318

* Stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Allegations Of Left Wing Media Bias

“Left wing bias” accusations date back at least to the mid 1990s, when complaints were commonly being levelled at RNZ’s Morning Report programme, largely by National MPs discomfited by being interviewed by Kim Hill.

The charge of left wing bias was ridiculous then, and is ridiculous now. More>>


Next Wave Of Reforms: Gun Registration And Licensing Changes Announced

“The Bill includes a register to track firearms and new offences and penalties that can be applied extraterritorially for illegal manufacture, trafficking, and for falsifying, removing, or altering markings – which are a new requirement under the Firearms Protocol.” More>>


Gordon Campbell: On Labour’s Mishandling Of The Alleged Sexual Assault

The focus of Labour’s alleged sexual assault scandal has now shifted from the party organisation to the Beehive... This is now a crisis of Beehive management and response, not something occurring at a distance within the party organisation. More>>


'History Rectified': Rua Kēnana To Be Pardoned

An official pardon for Tūhoe prophet and leader Rua Kēnana is one step closer after the Te Pire kia Unuhia te Hara kai Runga i a Rua Kēnana: Rua Kēnana Pardon Bill was read in Parliament for the first time today. More>>


Mental Health: Initial Mental Health And Wellbeing Commission Appointed

The Government has announced details of the initial Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission which will play a key role in driving better mental health in New Zealand. More>>


people outside the meeting house at WaitangiEducation: NZ History To Be Taught In All Schools

“We have listened carefully to the growing calls from New Zealanders to know more about our own history and identity. With this in mind it makes sense for the National Curriculum to make clear the expectation that our history is part of the local curriculum and marau ā kura in every school and kura,” Jacinda Ardern said. More>>


Sexual Assault Claims Mishandled: Labour Party President Resigns

Jacinda Ardern: “This morning I was provided some of the correspondence from complainants written to the party several months ago. It confirms that the allegations made were extremely serious, that the process caused complainants additional distress, and that ultimately, in my view, the party was never equipped to appropriately deal with the issue…" More>>


Budget Process: Wellbeing To Be Enshrined In Law

Legislation has been introduced in Parliament to ensure every Government considers the wellbeing of New Zealanders when creating future budgets. More>>

National In China: Bridges Praises CCP, Meets Law Enforcement Head

A recent trip to China has raised questions over who the Opposition leader Simon Bridges met with and why... Anne-Marie Brady, a Canterbury University professor and expert on Chinese politics, has described Guo Shengkun as the leader of the Chinese secret police. More>>


Gordon Campbell: On The SIS/GCSB’s Compliance With Torture

Torture is a crime under international law. New Zealand has signed (a) the UN convention against torture and (b) formal agreements about how armed conflict should be conducted. That’s the legal backdrop to the fascinating report released this week by the SIS Inspector-General.





InfoPages News Channels