iPredict - Political Update Dec 7
New Zealand Political Update
Wednesday 7 December 2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
* Heatley expected to be replaced as
Fisheries Minister, with Carter early favourite
* Energy & Resources expected to go to dark horse, with new stocks to be launched on additional options
* Guy picked to take Transport from Joyce, and Bridges Statistics from Williamson
* ACC too close to call between N Smith and Coleman
* Shearer/Robertson still ahead for Labour leadership
* Labour continues to be favoured for 2014 and Shearer has a 55% chance of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015
* L Smith to retain Speakership
Labour Party Leadership & Next Prime Minister
David Shearer continues to be favoured to be the next Labour leader, with 69% probability (up from 68% yesterday). The probability Grant Robertson will be deputy leader has leapt from 48% yesterday to 68% today. There is now only a 10% probability (down from 14% yesterday) that David Cunliffe will resign from Parliament before 1 April 2012. The probability the Prime Minister after the 2014 election will be a Labour Party MP is back up to 55%, from 52% yesterday, and the probability David Shearer will be Prime Minister before 1 January 2015 is also 55%. Stocks on the Labour leadership can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=1. Stocks for the 2014 election can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319.
Final 2011 Results
The probability National will lose a seat once special votes are counted is up to 82% (from 80% yesterday), taking its caucus down to 59 MPs from the election night 60. The Greens continue to be favoured to take the extra seat which would mean that National would need the ongoing support of both Act and UnitedFuture, or the Maori Party, to pass legislation, compared with just one of these as indicated on election night. Final seat allocation stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318.
There continues to be a 97% probability that the Maori Party will reach an agreement with the National Party that will see it either support National on confidence and supply, or abstain on such votes (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=CS.MAORI.NAT). There is a 92% probability there will be at least one Maori Party Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=MIN.MAORI.12). There continues to be just a 2.5% probability the Green Party will have a Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government. Stocks on which parties will provide Ministers can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=309.
iPredict's stocks on the new Cabinet, Ministers Outside Cabinet and portfolios (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318) continue to be fairly stable, although there have been some changes in portfolio allocation over the last 24 hours:
* Energy & Resources: A dark horse is now expected to be appointed. None of Gerry Brownlee, Hekia Parata, David Carter, Nick Smith, Anne Tolley, Amy Adams, Chris Tremain or Steven Joyce has more than a 4% probability of getting the job. "Other" now has a 94% probability of winning the portfolio. Stocks on other options for the portfolio will be launched today.
* ACC: Yesterday this was expected to go to Jonathan Coleman, with 55% probability. Today, it is too close to call, with incumbent Nick Smith and Dr Coleman both having 43% probability of being given the job.
* Fisheries: Phil Heatley is now expected to lose the portfolio, with just a 7% probability of keeping the job down from 98% yesterday. David Carter is favoured but with just 33% probability.
* Transport: Nathan Guy is now expected to be Minister of Transport, with 52% probability.
Overall, the shape of the new Government is emerging as follows:
Probability, Name, Portfolios (probability)
100% John Key: Prime Minister (na); Tourism (93%)
100% Bill English: Finance (98%); Infrastructure (76%)
100% Murray McCully: Foreign Affairs (94%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
99% Gerry Brownlee: Leader of the House (91%); Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (92%)
98% Steven Joyce: Economic Development (87%); Associate Finance (73%); Science & Innovation (23%)
98% Tony Ryall: Health (94%); State Services (48%); SOEs (30%)
98% Christopher Finlayson: Attorney-General (95%); Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations (95%)
98% Paula Bennett: Social Development (98%)
98% Judith Collins: Justice (88%); Corrections (53%); Veterans' Affairs (40%); Commerce (39%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (79%)
95% Phil Heatley: Housing (97%)
95% Nick Smith: Environment (94%); Climate Change Issues (83%)
94% Amy Adams
93% Craig Foss
93% Anne Tolley: Police (55%)
93% Jonathan Coleman
91% Nathan Guy: Transport (53%)
90% Kate Wilkinson: Labour (82%)
88% David Carter: Agriculture (76%); Forestry (70%); Fisheries (33%)
Probability, Name, Portfolios (probability)
na Peter Dunne: Revenue (na); Associate Health (na); Associate Conservation (na)
na John Banks: Regulatory Reform (na); Small Business (na); Associate Education (na); Associate Commerce (na)
94% Tariana Turia: Whanau Ora (83%)
76% Chris Tremain: Consumer Affairs (48%)
70% Simon Bridges: Statistics (58%)
50% Maurice Williamson: Land Information (52%)
50% Pita Sharples: Maori Affairs (48%)
Portfolios which are now up for grabs are Broadcasting, Defence, Immigration and Local Government. Jonathan Coleman is expected to lose both Broadcasting and Immigration, with just a 12% probability of holding the former and just a 9% probability of holding the latter. No individual has more than a 14% chance of getting Broadcasting and no individual has more than a 15% probability of getting Immigration. Amy Adams is favoured for Defence with a 22% probability of being appointed to the portfolio (down from 27% yesterday), but "other" has 65% probability (up from 52% yesterday). Craig Foss has a 17% probability of being awarded Local Government, but "other" has a 33% probability.
The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 86%. National's Chief Whip continues to be expected to be Jo Goodhew (66%). Lockwood Smith is expected to retain the Speakership (91% probability). New portfolio stocks will be released progressively for the rest of this week.
The probability Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China has fallen back to 34%, from 35% yesterday and 50% last week (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162). The leading MFAT candidate continues to be Grahame Morton (15%).
National Party Leadership
John Key continues to be strongly expected to remain Leader of the National Party until 2014, with only a combined 10.3% probability he will depart before then. There continues to be a 40% probability he will depart in 2014 and a 15% probability he will depart in 2015 (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=143). Independent of the timing of his departure, Judith Collins is favoured to replace him with 22% probability followed by Simon Bridges (20%) and Steven Joyce (14%). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=155.
2011 Election stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week.
iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.