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iPredict - NZ Political Update Dec 9

iPredict Ltd New Zealand Political Update
Friday 9 December 2011

Latest Developments:

* Shearer remains favoured as Labour Leader, but Key now picked to be re-elected in 2014
* Coleman favoured for ACC, Foss for Broadcasting, Tolley for Corrections, N Smith for Local Government and Joyce for SOEs
* Goodhew and Bridges swap forecast roles, with Goodhew now expected to be made a Minister and Bridges to become Chief Whip


Labour Party Leadership & Next Prime Minister

David Shearer remains ahead in the race to be the next Labour leader, with 72% probability, up from 69% on Wednesday. Grant Robertson is expected to be his deputy, with 69% probability compared with 68% on Wednesday. For the first time since last month's election, however, National is favoured to provide the Prime Minister after the 2014 election, and there is just an 8.9% probability John Key will step down from the National Party leadership in 2012 or 2013. Stocks on the Labour and National leaderships can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=1. Stocks for the 2014 election can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319.

Final 2011 Results

The probability National will lose at least one seat once special votes are counted is up to 88% from 82% on Wednesday. Assuming it loses only one seat, its caucus would be down to 59 MPs from the election night 60. The Greens continue to be favoured to take an extra seat, with 84% probability, while Labour has only a 31% probability of picking up an extra seat. Stocks on how election night results may change when official results are declared tomorrow can be found at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318.

The Government

There continues to be a 97% probability that the Maori Party will reach an agreement with the National Party that will see it either support National on confidence and supply, or abstain on such votes (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=CS.MAORI.NAT). There is a 92% probability there will be at least one Maori Party Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=MIN.MAORI.12). There continues to be just a 2.5% probability the Green Party will have a Minister (in or outside Cabinet) in the new Government. Stocks on which parties will provide Ministers can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=309.

iPredict's stocks on the membership of Cabinet and the appointment of Ministers Outside Cabinet have remained stable in the last 48 hours (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318) but there has continued to be significant changes in some forecast portfolio allocations:

* ACC: Nick Smith appears to have dropped out of the race and Jonathan Coleman is now favoured with 45% probability
* Broadcasting: Craig Foss is now expected to take over from Jonathan Coleman, with 60% probability
* Corrections: Anne Tolley is now expected to take the portfolio, with 80% probability, instead of the previously favoured Judith Collins
* Local Government: With 72% probability, Nick Smith is expected to add this portfolio to Environment and Climate Change
* SOEs: Steven Joyce is now favoured, but with only 28% probability

Overall, the emerging shape of the new Government is as follows:

Probability, Name, Portfolio(s) and probability
100% John Key: Prime Minister (na); Tourism (93%)
100% Bill English: Finance (98%); Infrastructure (78%)
100% Murray McCully: Foreign Affairs (94%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
99% Gerry Brownlee: Leader of the House (91%); Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (92%)
98% Steven Joyce: Economic Development (85%); Science & Innovation (85%); SOEs (28%)
98% Tony Ryall: Health (94%)
98% Christopher Finlayson: Attorney-General (95%); Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations (95%)
98% Paula Bennett: Social Development (80%)
98% Judith Collins: Justice (72%); Veterans' Affairs (40%); Commerce (39%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (80%)
98% Phil Heatley: Housing (97%); Energy & Resources (76%)
98% Nick Smith: Environment (94%); Climate Change Issues (89%); Local Government (72%)
95% Jonathan Coleman: ACC (45%)
94% Amy Adams
94% Anne Tolley: Corrections (80%); Police (70%)
93% Craig Foss: Broadcasting (60%)
93% Kate Wilkinson: Labour (63%)
90% Nathan Guy
88% David Carter: Agriculture (87%); Forestry (74%); Fisheries (40%)

Probability, Name, Portfolio(s) and probability
na Peter Dunne: Revenue (na); Associate Health (na); Associate Conservation (na)
na John Banks: Regulatory Reform (na); Small Business (na); Associate Education (na); Associate Commerce (na)
87% Tariana Turia: Whanau Ora (83%)
82% Jo Goodhew
76% Chris Tremain: Consumer Affairs (37%)
57% Te Ururoa Flavell: Maori Affairs (40%)
50% Pita Sharples

Defence look set to go to a dark horse, with an 84% probability it will go to someone other than Amy Adams, Judith Collins, Hekia Parata, Anne Tolley, Kate Wilkinson, David Carter, Craig Foss, Gerry Brownlee or John Banks.

Immigration is also set to go to a dark hourse, with a 77% probability it will go to someone other than Amy Adams, Kate Wilkinson, Jonathan Coleman, Craig Foss, Anne Tolley, Maurice Williamson, Chester Borrows or Simon Bridges.

The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 87%. National's Chief Whip is now expected to be Simon Bridges (70%). Lockwood Smith is expected to retain the Speakership (90% probability).

Diplomatic Appointments

The probability Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China remains 34% (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162). The leading MFAT candidate continues to be Grahame Morton (15%).

Fine Print

2011 Election stocks whose payout was determined on election night are being closed progressively through the week. iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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