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iPredict Political Update Dec 11

iPredict Political Update

Sunday 11 December 2011



Latest Forecasts:
* Three South Islanders to be big winners in tomorrow's National reshuffle - Adams into Cabinet, Goodhew to become Minister outside Cabinet and Woodhouse to be Chief Whip
* Foss to become Minister of Commerce
* Coleman now looks safe in Broadcasting
* Joyce to be Innovation Tsar (Economic Development and Science); N Smith to be Resource Management Tsar (Environment, Local Government and Climate Change); and D Carter to be Primary Industries Tsar (Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries)
* Labour again narrowly ahead for 2014 and Shearer/Robertson still favoured for Tuesday's leadership vote, but probability has fallen


The Government

As overwhelmingly forecast by iPredict since the election, the Green Party has picked up one extra seat from its election night result at the expense of the National Party while - as also overwhelmingly forecast by iPredict - John Key has brought the Maori Party into his Government.

With the Executive expected to be announced tomorrow, iPredict is now forecasting the following ministerial roles, as are trading at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=318:

Probability, Name, Portfolio(s) and probability
100% John Key: Prime Minister (na); Tourism (98%)
100% Bill English: Finance (98%); Infrastructure (89%)
100% Murray McCully: Foreign Affairs (94%)
100% Tim Groser: Trade (98%)
99% Gerry Brownlee: Leader of the House (91%); Canterbury Earthquake Recovery (96%)
98% Steven Joyce: Economic Development (94%); Science & Innovation (91%)
98% Tony Ryall: Health (94%); SOEs (72%)
98% Christopher Finlayson: Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations (98%); Attorney-General (96%);
98% Paula Bennett: Social Development (92%)
98% Judith Collins: Justice (92%); Veterans' Affairs (42%)
98% Hekia Parata: Education (95%)
98% Nick Smith: Environment (98%); Climate Change Issues (95%); Local Government (78%)
98% David Carter: Forestry (94%); Agriculture (93%); Fisheries (43%)
98% Phil Heatley: Housing (98%); Energy & Resources (92%)
98% Kate Wilkinson: Labour (90%)
95% Amy Adams
95% Jonathan Coleman: Broadcasting (60%); ACC (40%)
95% Anne Tolley: Police (95%); Corrections (85%)
93% Craig Foss: Commerce (65%)
90% Nathan Guy

Probability Name Portfolio(s) and probability
na Peter Dunne: Revenue (na); Associate Health (na); Associate Conservation (na)
na John Banks: Regulatory Reform (na); Small Business (na); Associate Education (na); Associate Commerce (na)
na Tariana Turia: Whanau Ora (na); Disability Issues (na); Associate Health 9na); Associate Housing (na); Associate Social Development and Employment (na)
na Pita Sharples: Maori Affairs (na); Associate Education (na); Associate Corrections (na)
100% Jo Goodhew
100% Chris Tremain: Consumer Affairs (35%)
55% Maurice Williamson

Defence is expected (94% probability) to go to someone other than Amy Adams, Judith Collins, Anne Tolley, Kate Wilkinson, David Carter, Hekia Parata, Craig Foss, Gerry Brownlee or John Banks.

Immigration is expected (94% probability) to go to someone other than Kate Wilkinson, Craig Foss, Chester Borrows, Anne Tolley, Maurice Williamson, Amy Adams, Simon Bridges or the incumbent, Jonathan Coleman.

State Services is expected (94% probability) to go to someone other than Tony Ryall, Gerry Brownlee, Paula Bennett, Judith Collins, Chris Finlayson, Steven Joyce, Hekia Parata, Bill English or Murray McCully.

Transport is expected (93% probability) to go to someone other than Steven Joyce, David Carter, Nathan Guy, Craig Foss, Judith Collins, Phil Heatley, Kate Wilkinson or Jonathan Coleman.

The probability a Minister will depart in 2012 is 90%. National's Chief Whip is now expected to be Michael Woodhouse (94%). Lockwood Smith is expected to retain the Speakership (97% probability). There is a 57% probability he or another presiding officer will throw Winston Peters out of the House of Representatives by 31 March 2012 (https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=WP.LEAVE.31MAR12).

There is a 35% probability that Phil Goff will be the next Ambassador to China (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=162). The leading MFAT candidate continues to be Grahame Morton (15%).

National Party Leadership

With Labour again narrowly forecast to win the 2014 election (see below), there is a now a 67% probability John Key will leave the leadership of the National Party in 2014 or 2015 (see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=143). Independent of the timing of his departure, the favourites to replace him are Judith Collins (35% probability), Simon Bridges (16% probability), Bill English (11% probability) and Steven Joyce (11% probability). Stocks on the next National leader can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=155.

Labour Party Leadership & 2014 Election

After dipping briefly behind National on Friday for the first time since the election, Labour is again narrowly favoured to win the 2014 election, with 52% probability. There is a 31% probability that David Shearer will be Prime Minister by 1 January 2015, a 9% probability David Cunliffe will be Prime minister before 1 January 2015, 6% probability for Grant Robertson and a 3% probability for David Parker.

For this week's leadership vote, David Shearer and Grant Robertson are still ahead but the probability they will be elected has fallen back. There is a 65% probability Mr Shearer will be elected (down from 72% last week) and a 52% probability Mr Robertson will be elected deputy (down from 69% last week). David Cunliffe has an 8% probability of being deputy. Stocks on the Labour and National leaderships can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=1.

Fine Print

iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz The New Zealand Political Update is published periodically depending on market developments.


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