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Will the NZ Police budget be increased or cut?



Friday 9 March 2012



Will the New Zealand Police budget be increased or cut?

New Zealand’s online predictions market iPredict, has today launched a bundle of contracts asking if funding for the New Zealand Police will be increased or cut in this year’s Budget, and by how much.

iPredict’s nearly 6000 registered traders, and anyone else who signs up for free at www.ipredict.co.nz, can now trade the stocks at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=12&show=charts

Eight stocks have been launched asking whether or not the police budget will be increased by more than 4%, increased by 2-4%, increased by 0-2%, cut by 0-2%, cut by 2-4%, cut by 4-6%, cut by 6-8% or cut by more than 8%. Whichever stock is confirmed by announcements on Budget Day will pay $1, meaning that the price in cents at any given time should indicate the probability of the police budget announcement being in that range. The value of all eight stocks should sum to $1 at all times.

The iPredict administrator, Oliver Ibbetson, said New Zealand’s largest newspaper, the New Zealand Herald, had reported this week that budget pressures mean that police numbers might need to fall and some stations might need to close unless officers forgo pay rises or the government increases the police budget.

In the 2011 Budget, the police budget was cut by 0.2% from NZ$1,483,884,000 to NZ$1,480,743,000.

In its policy statement for the 2012 Budget, published in December 2011, the New Zealand Government confirmed “operating allowances of $800 million for Budgets 2012 and 2013, returning to $1.2 billion for Budget 2014 and growing thereafter at 2 per cent per annum.”

It said: “To stick to these operating allowances we will continue to reprioritise spending into higher-priority areas and require government departments to find efficiencies as part of their four-year budget plans.”


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