Roy Morgan Poll 12/3 to 1/4/12: Nat 44% Lab 30.5% Green 17%

Thursday, 5 April 2012, 4:20 pm
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

NATIONAL (44%) LEAD OVER LABOUR TUMBLES (30.5%)
GREENS (17%) HIGHEST RECORDED

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Finding No. 4761 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 – April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.: April 05, 2012

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows decreasing support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 4.5% since February 27-March 11, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 30.5%, Greens 17% (up 4.5%) — a record high, New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would likely be returned to Government, however a Labour/ Greens alliance could form Government.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5 points to 124 — with 53.5% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party (44%, down 4.5%) falling to its lowest share of the vote since immediately after the 2008 New Zealand Election. Although Labour support (30.5%, up 0.5%) was largely unchanged the Greens (17%, up 4.5%) have surged to their highest level of support ever. The record Greens support coincides with the yearly ‘Earth Hour’ which was held during the survey period last Saturday, March 31, 2012. This is the first time since the election of the Key Government in 2008 that Labour and Greens support (47.5%) is greater than support for National (44%).

“Recent controversies involving several National MPs have embarrassed the Government and provided plenty of ‘ammunition’ for the Opposition. Today’s result shows that while National continues to enjoy a strong lead by itself, a combination of left-leaning parties could form Government if there was a shock election in the near future. At present though, Key is not due to go back to the polls until late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 — April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Full results with charts: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4761/

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