PANEL DISCUSSIONS
HOSTED BY PAUL HOLMES

In response to RUSSEL NORMAN and WINSTON PETERS interview
PAUL HOLMES
Welcome to our panel this morning. Dr Raymond Miller from the Auckland University; Deborah Morris-Travers, manager of Every Child Counts and former Minister of Youth Affairs in the National/NZ First-led government back in the ‘90s; and Fran O’Sullivan, columnist with the New Zealand Herald. So, Fran, first of all to you. What options, really, despite what they were both saying, what options has Bill English got in this Budget aside from self-restraint and some reprioritising?

FRAN O’SULLIVAN - NZ Herald Columnist
Well, he doesn’t have many options, because one of the things we always knew after the GFC and when they first came in, they had their rolling maul of initiatives, and it was a big fiscal stimulus programme. Much of it was around the tax cuts, but also construction, which was brought forward. We always had to taper off that, and it was always going to be painful.

PAUL What was the GFC?

FRAN The global financial crisis.

PAUL Oh, OK. Got you.

FRAN So coming in when they did in 2008 in that first Budget, that first set of measures with the tax cuts and also bringing the national roads of significance, all those sorts of things, which did keep some hum in the economy. That was also done with debt. So sooner or later, you had to start tapering it off. We’re at that stage, so it strains the options. The tax revenue is not as high as the government thought, and Russel Norman made a good point there about the fact that the tax cuts haven’t delivered the fiscal stimulus that was supposed to happen. But the point about that also - he talked to the $1 billion or $2 billion that had been cut out of the system. Well, the government’s been piling on debt at $1 billion a month, so there’s that extra quantum that has to be measured. It’s not an easy task.

PAUL It is not. And, of course, since the books in February, we have deteriorated by $1 billion. Raymond?

RAYMOND MILLER - Political Analyst
Yes, um, but of course this current orthodox austerity allows the government to preface every announcement about the Budget with, of course, ‘We’re in a global financial crisis,’ which is a softening-up process, in a sense. One of the things I did think where Winston Peters and Russel Norman were in agreement was over the need to invest more in the productive sector, particularly given the competition with Australia, to do more in terms of skills, technology, education and, of course, jobs.

PAUL That’s right, but he’s talking rewarding winners, but picking winners, isn’t he, Winston Peters.

RAYMOND Indeed, indeed.

PAUL I was interested in how passionate Winston was about this slide against the Australian economy which, I suppose, he’s blaming on the politics we’ve used since Rogernomics.

DEBORAH MORRIS-TRAVERS - Manager, Every Child Counts
Well, of course, because we keep losing so much talent across the Tasman. I think an interesting point that both Russel and Winston touched on was that of inequality. And, in fact, economists at the International Monetary Fund and the OECD and elsewhere are saying that if countries want vibrant economies, they have to be addressing the issue of inequality, which means we need both a wealth-creation strategy and a poverty-alleviation strategy. We have got to be ensuring that there are jobs for our young people. And our unemployment rate for youth is extremely high, and we’re talking about specifically Maori and Pacifica.

PAUL But where do we get them? We can’t flick them out of the sky.

RAYMOND The government’s reforms are much gentler than they are in places like Europe, but nevertheless there is concern that if you continue to basically pick winners, and there are many people who feel as if there are being disadvantaged by this recession worldwide, then there is a public backlash. And we saw it in the 1930s, we saw it in the 1980s. We’re seeing it in parts of Europe. And every government has to be concerned about pushing too hard with the zero Budgets.

PAUL Yes. Mr Key’s got to be careful about governing, too, because he doesn’t have too many friends on the right. You talked about an interesting point, though, and it’s interesting politically that whilst the government can point to the global financial meltdown around the world, he can say every problem we’ve got here is because of that, and so that helps him politically, doesn’t it? It helps the Nats politically.

FRAN Well, it does to a degree, and people can see obviously what’s happening in Greece, but I think Raymond makes a very valid point that if you lose your trust with your own nation and if you push austerity too far and if you end up with something like Greece with 50% youth unemployed. That’s revolution, that’s mad, right-wing parties, that’s fascism, because people will not stand for it. That puts you on the default path, and probably quite rightly so, as a nation. But I think one of the things that both, um, Winston Peters and Russel Norman touched on and I think it really valid is how do you generate the export economy. Removing R & D incentives - what do we do to incentivise that? Market assistance for getting into new markets, tax right-offs, that sort of thing. They really should be part of the arsenal today when we’re trying to go out into the world.

PAUL Do any of you actually see any sign of this economy really regenerating or really turning a corner or really going anywhere? Russel Norman talks about going to a clean-tech, sustainable economy.

FRAN I think there’s room to do things there. For instance, in China, the Chinese government has made clean tech. It’s one of the major strands of their economy. We probably haven’t had a concerted programme in New Zealand to look at how New Zealand can clip on to that. Only needs to get a small slice of that in one or two major growth cities in, again, places like Indonesia, as well, where I think we will see Mighty River Power get involved. But it can be broader than that. But I think the other thing that both our politicians spoke about was the exchange rate, and obviously the Americans have run their programme to keep their exchange rate low, and China runs a competitive devaluation process. We don’t do anything here, and I think both are right. Our firms are being buffeted around on this. It’s very difficult.

PAUL Just to finish, Mr Peters is very big on this. I think he may have drafted a bill to change that Reserve Bank Act again to try and moderate the fluctuations of the exchange rate.

In response to JUDGE NEIL MACLEAN interview

PAUL HOLMES
Why don’t I ask each of you what you took from what Judge MacLean was saying? Principal things you heard there. I know, Fran, you were making a lot of notes.

FRAN O’SULLIVAN - NZ Herald Columnist
Well, I guess the major point was to pick up on the coroner’s recommendation to make it mandatory to get a response.

PAUL From government?

FRAN And other agencies as well, yes. I think that’s a sensible move.

RAYMOND MILLER - Political Analyst
Yes, my parents came to New Zealand because they understood it was a great place to bring up kids, and there are hundreds of thousands of other immigrants who came here for the same reason. So these statistics we’ve heard today are really quite horrifying. I think there are so many ad hoc decisions being made by various government ministries and agencies, and I would like to see a more comprehensive response along the lines that are being suggested. Now, one of the things is the common denominator to all of this is age. We’re talking about young New Zealanders, and really there needs to be one agency where the buck stops, one ministry where the buck stops. Youth Affairs, for instance. Um, because it seems as if a lot of things are being picked up - Health, Education, Justice, wherever. But there needs to be some clearing house.

PAUL We heard Shane’s example of where he went to enquire about something being flicked from agency to agency, and Judge MacLean confirmed that sounds a bit like passing the buck. What do you think?

DEBORAH MORRIS-TRAVERS - Manager, Every Child Counts
Yes, I wanted to comment on that actually, because it’s something that we encounter in our work in communities as well - that there’s a complete lack of coordination across government. So one of the things that we’ve been advocating for is a comprehensive children’s action plan that would meet the needs of all New Zealand children, that would coordinate government activity, also ensure a good interface between community and government, but to identify accountabilities and set some targets. We are dealing with issues of national significance. They are gnarly and complex, and if we do not address them, then I’m afraid that given in just 11 years’ time we’ll have more people over the age of 65 than we’ll have under the age of 14, these children are going to continue to be on the margins of political consideration. And we are going to fail as a nation.

PAUL I mean, I think we can say we’ve got to the point where we’re in a deep crisis here regarding our children. You’ve heard Peter Gluckman on this programme talking about this, saying he’s deeply frustrated at the way we treat and deal with kids in New Zealand. We almost haven’t got to a point where matters to do with children should almost be the first thing any Cabinet minister wants to talk about when addressing any subject.

FRAN What about the family side? I mean, one of the things the Chief Coroner did say was that when you get down into it and investigate these instances where deaths have occurred prematurely through whatever, it’s often a dysfunctional family. So who takes responsibility at the family level for having the right sort of environment?

PAUL No, but then you can also go the other way when kids start to get into trouble, it can drive parents nuts and spare and they don’t know what to do. And I liked the fact that he said how difficult parenting is, and there has probably never been a generation where children can hide so effectively from their parents as now with texting and stuff.

DEBORAH A couple of things that I think are really important around this - obviously support for parents and education for them. But what I like to think of it is if you think about how well we’ve done with our road toll, we’ve had a number of things in place to do with our road safety. We’ve had the right laws and indeed recent changes to law around zero alcohol for young people when they’re driving. We have enforcement of those laws. We have a lot of public education and social marketing. But then very importantly, there’s significant investment in making sure that the roads themselves are as safe as they can be and likewise the vehicles. So in the context of what’s happening for children and young people, we need the right laws in place that prevent their access to alcohol. We need the right price regimes and things. But also when we’re talking about that in terms of road safety, the environment in which our children are growing up and our parents are parenting has to be looked at. So we need connected communities, so we need an economy that invests in them. We need to make sure that the social and economic circumstances are right for our children.

PAUL Fran, you talk about the family, though. You’re quite right to bring up the matter of responsibility of the families, because I was very shocked by this. This comes from Nikki Kaye to us. She’s the chairman of the Education and Science Select Committee. ALAC has two surveys: ’05 and ’06 and ’09 and ’10 showing that around 70% of teens - Shane mentioned this - are given alcohol by their parents. 70% of them. That’s their first port of call for booze.

FRAN But the thing is what sort of booze? It wouldn’t be in the European sense of a glass of wine at a meal. It would be endorsing the alco-pop industry, and frankly that made various people billionaires in this country. I actually see that as leading to a big explosion in teen drinking which was seen as OK way back when.

RAYMOND There’s a long history of binge drinking in New Zealand. The 6 o’clock swill, for instance, where people on empty stomachs were stumbling round trying to find their car to drive home. This is something that goes back a long way, and we’re not as responsible as we should be, both as parents and as young people.

PAUL I’ve got to leave it there, thank you. I’ve got to thank the Chief Coroner for bringing these matters forward.

In response to COLIN CRAIG interview

PAUL HOLMES
Well, did he [Colin Craig] cover himself with this business on the promiscuity?

DEBORAH MORRIS-TRAVERS - Manager, Every Child Counts
No, I don’t think so. I think it’s really important for social policy to move with the times, and we’re in a time where we do have sole parenthood, women are in the workforce, technology is a major force to be reckoned with, and we’re an incredibly diverse society, and we need to accommodate that in our social policy. And to some extent, I think that’s what the government’s trying to do with this contraception move.

RAYMOND MILLER - Political Analyst
Quite apart from the seriousness of the allegation, politically I think it was pure gold, quite frankly, for him. Pure gold. Who knew of the conservative Party before last week? He’s learned a lot from Winston Peters and Bob Jones before him, and that is when you lead a small party, any news is good news. You get in there as hard and fast as you can. I think it was unintended. I don’t think he set out to do that, but it has put him on the map, and that’s certainly cheaper than spending $1.8 million attracting 59,000 votes.

PAUL He will have found an audience.

FRAN O’SULLIVAN - NZ Herald Columnist
Yes, he certainly will have, and the surveys, to be honest, are probably right. New Zealand does rank up there for both men and women on all of these international surveys. But the weakness in his argument is if you assume that you’ve got all these young women sleeping around, having one night stands, having babies, sure as hell you would want to actually stop children being born into a situation like that if you were conservative. So why, in God’s name, are you not supporting the government to make contraception available on a free basis?

PAUL That’s where it gets muddled.

FRAN That is the Christian thing to do, I would suggest.

PAUL Would he have brassed off New Zealand women, do you think? Just very quickly - yes or no?

DEBORAH Yes.

RAYMOND Some. Many. Most. (ALL LAUGH) There will be some who might agree with him.

PAUL The ones who sleep around. Yes, Fran?

FRAN Yes, I think he would have. But I agree - I think it has put him on the map. In the context of the MMP review, if you have a threshold for coming into Parliament to attract say only 4% of votes, I would say he would have a good chance pushing this.

PAUL All of which is linked to the old Hollywood maxim: there is no bad publicity.

FRAN Absolutely.

PAUL I’ve got to thank you all very much indeed.

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