NZ Govt to forecast 2014/15 surplus but fail to deliver
NZ Govt to forecast 2014/15 surplus but fail to
The New Zealand Government is set to
announce a 2014/15 surplus in its Budget tomorrow but will
fail to deliver, according to the 6900 registered traders on
New Zealand’s online prediction market,
As at 5.30 pm tonight, traders were
predicting tomorrow’s Budget will forecast a 2014/15
surplus of 0.75% of GDP but they believe the government
accounts that year will turn out to be in deficit to the tune of 0.64% of
Nevertheless, iPredict traders continue to favour
National to win the general election in
2014/15 (53% probability), with an 86% probability
current Prime Minister John Key will lead his party
into that election. Should National win, there is an 85%
probability Mr Key will reappoint current Finance Minister Bill
English to that role
Portfolios likely to have a
higher total appropriation in tomorrow’s Budget than in
Budget 2011 are Education, Tertiary Education, Health, Social Development and the Ombudsmen,
Portfolios likely to be cut
are Defence, Transport, Conservation, Corrections, Courts, Justice, Ministerial Services, National Archives, National Library and the Police.
Trading volumes for many
Budget 2012 stocks have been surprisingly low suggesting the
opening prices set by the market maker were broadly accurate
or that insiders have declined to trade.
opportunities therefore remain for those who believe that
have an insight into likely government decisions.
in the stocks will continue until tomorrow afternoon, with
the market maker to be turned off at approximately 1.00
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