Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

NZ Govt to forecast 2014/15 surplus but fail to deliver


NZ Govt to forecast 2014/15 surplus but fail to deliver: iPredict

The New Zealand Government is set to announce a 2014/15 surplus in its Budget tomorrow but will fail to deliver, according to the 6900 registered traders on New Zealand’s online prediction market, iPredict.

As at 5.30 pm tonight, traders were predicting tomorrow’s Budget will forecast a 2014/15 surplus of 0.75% of GDP but they believe the government accounts that year will turn out to be in deficit to the tune of 0.64% of GDP.

Nevertheless, iPredict traders continue to favour National to win the general election in 2014/15 (53% probability), with an 86% probability current Prime Minister John Key will lead his party into that election. Should National win, there is an 85% probability Mr Key will reappoint current Finance Minister Bill English to that role

Portfolios likely to have a higher total appropriation in tomorrow’s Budget than in Budget 2011 are Education, Tertiary Education, Health, Social Development and the Ombudsmen,

Portfolios likely to be cut are Defence, Transport, Conservation, Corrections, Courts, Justice, Ministerial Services, National Archives, National Library and the Police.

Trading volumes for many Budget 2012 stocks have been surprisingly low suggesting the opening prices set by the market maker were broadly accurate or that insiders have declined to trade.

Profit opportunities therefore remain for those who believe that have an insight into likely government decisions.

Trading in the stocks will continue until tomorrow afternoon, with the market maker to be turned off at approximately 1.00 pm.

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On The Fallout From The Barclay Tape

This is hardly a case of cleaning out your desk and being turfed out onto the pavement.

As others have pointed out, the disgraced Clutha-Southland MP will remain on the public payroll for three months until the election, and for three months afterwards. More>>

 

Ombudsman: Canterbury Schools Reorganisation Mishandled

An investigation into the Canterbury schools reorganisation after the February 2011 earthquakes has found significant gaps and flaws in the Ministry’s engagement and communications with schools and communities. More>>

ALSO:

Law Commission: Contempt Report "Protects Right To Fair Trial"

The proposed Act limits what news media representatives and bloggers can report on court proceedings, but it also makes clearer than the current law where the line is between contempt and freedom of expression. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Our Refugee Intake (And Uber’s Woes)

On figures released this week, there are currently 65.6 million people worldwide who have been displaced from their homes by war, famine or other external causes… More>>

ALSO:

IGIS Report: GCSB Support For Groser WTO Bid Not Illegal

“The inquiry has found that the GCSB did not act unlawfully or improperly in providing assistance to the New Zealand government campaign”, Ms Gwyn said. More>>

ALSO:

PM's Press Conference: Pike And Houses

There were questions on Pike River mine re-entry after new video from inside the drift was released over the weekend. English maintained a human effort would not be feasible irrespective of any future coalition demands from NZ First. He said the government would continue to work with families on non-manned re-entry. More>>

ALSO:

Flogging A Dead Horse: NZ First Seeks New s59 Referendum

10 years on from the so called “anti-smacking” law - NZ First calls for a binding referendum. NZ First MP Tracey Martin told TVNZ’s Q+A programme that the law change has had a “chilling effect” on NZ parents including herself. More>>

ALSO:

Always Interesting: Internet Party Has New Leader

The Internet Party has a new leader: Suzie Dawson... She currently resides in Moscow, Russia, where she has applied for temporary asylum due to severe persecution she reports being subjected to by those whose corruption she worked to expose.More>>

 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

Featured InfoPages

Opening the Election
 
 
 
  • PublicAddress
  • Pundit
  • Kiwiblog