Roy Morgan Poll - National down two percentage points

Friday, 13 July 2012, 6:32 pm
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

NATIONAL (45.5%, DOWN 2%) LEAD LESSENS
LABOUR (32.5%, UP 0.5%) AT HIGHEST SINCE 2011 ELECTION

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Finding No. 4802 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,026 electors from June 25 – July 8, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.: July 13, 2012

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 45.5% (down 2% since June 8 — 24, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has barely changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 32.5% (the highest Labour has been since July 2011), Greens are 13% (up 1%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 2% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll suggests an election result would be ‘too close to call’.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 117.5, with 51.5% (down 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National 45.5% (down 2%) with a reduced lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (32.5%, up 0.5%). This is the closest the two parties have been since May 16-29, 2011: National (49%) cf. Labour (36%).

“The spread of support in Parliament shows that a Labour & Greens alliance (45.5%, up 1.5%) is now even with National (45.5%) and the result of a NZ election held now would depend on whether NZ First (4.5%) managed to cross the threshold of 5% support that determines whether they get allocated list seats.

“A special New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll released today shows that Economic Issues (52%, down 3% since April 2012) continue to dominate the thoughts of New Zealanders as the most important problem facing New Zealand today. These issues include the Economy/ Financial Crisis/ Recession/ Inflation/ Unemployment & Job Security/ Cost of Living/ Poverty/ The Gap between Rich & Poor and Household debt. These are the issues Prime Minister John Key must address if he is to regain lost support and strengthen his Government’s standing in the electorate.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,026 electors from June 25 — July 8, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
Link to Full Poll

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