Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


HorizonPoll: Coalition options on knife edge

Media release

Sunday December 2, 2012

Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises

National and Labour have enjoyed significant increases in support among eligible voters.

There would be a knife edge choice between potential National and Labour led coalitions if an election were held now.

New Zealand First, with control of the cross benches, would determine what happened in Parliament.

A nationwide HorizonPoll of 2,284 people 18+, conducted between November 23 and December2, shows National support has risen 6.2% since September to 31%. At the 2011 general election National won 32.31% of the votes of the total population aged 18+.

In the latest HorizonPoll Labour support has risen 4.7% to 23.8% of the total eligible voting population 18+.

It won 18.77% of all people aged 18+ at the 2011 general election.

New Zealand First is up 0.5% to 8.3% in the HorizonPoll, a 0.5% lift.

The Green party has 10.1%, down from 11.4 in late September.

 
18+ POPULATION SUPPORT TRACKED FROM 2011 GENERAL ELECTION 
        
 2011 election April 24- May 6, 2012 May 18 – June 6, 2012 July 6-18, 2012 September 21-25, 2012 Nov23- Dec 2 2012 
              
National 32.31 28.1 26.6 26.5 24.8 31 
              
Labour 18.77 23.4 23.2 20.5 19.1 23.8 
              
Green 7.55 11 8.2 13 11.4 10.1 
              
NZ First 4.5 5.4 6.4 5.9 7.8 8.3 
              

The results are weighted by six criteria, including party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.1%.

COALITION OPTIONS

The results show the current National-led coalition would have 33.9% of adult population support, while a Labour-led coalition with the Green and Mana parties would have 34.6%.

NZ First could deliver 42.2% total support for a National-led coalition, 42.9% for a Labour-led one.

 
POTENTIAL COALITIONS - NZ FIRST ON CROSS BENCHES 
      
  Nat led   Lab led   
          
Act 0.8   Green 10.1 
          
Maori 1.6   Labour 23.6 
          
National 31   Mana 0.9 
          
United Future 0.5       
          
Total 33.9     34.6 
          
NZ First 8.3     8.3 
          
Total 42.2     42.9 
          

Support for the Conservative Party, another potential coalition party for National, is 3.2% (3.1% September). 5% or a seat in Parliament under current electoral law would be needed to the Conservatives to have a say in which main party led a coalition government.

The poll covers the period during which Labour held its annual conference. There was significant media coverage of leadership issues and a new policy to build 100,000 affordable homes.

NATIONAL, LABOUR VOTERS COME HOME

National’s rise results from a major return of support from those who voted for it in 2011.

In late September it had the support of 68.3% of its 2011 election voters. This is now up nearly 10% to 78%.

In September 18% of former National voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for. This has fallen to 5.6%.

Labour’s rise also reflects a 7% leap in 2011 voter loyalty, from 70.1% in September to 77% now.

The number of 2011 Labour voters who don’t know who to vote for has dropped from 14% to 5.6%.

The Greens have 75.4% voter loyalty, NZ First 76%, Act 49.5% - and the Maori Party just 21.9%. It has bled support to National, Labour and Mana.

The following tables shows results for all parties and current support of 2011 party voters:


Click for big version.
 
Q46. If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know

  Total A B C D E F G H I J K L M   
                                
                                
                                
ALL 2286 0.8%  3.2%  10.1%  23.8%  0.9%  1.6%  31%  8.3%  0.5%  1.1%  6.8%  0.4%  11.4%  100% 
                                
                            
                                
PARTY VOTE 2011                           
                                
ACT New Zealand 0.6% 49.5%  1.7%    5.6%    11.1%  13.9%            18.1%  100%  
                                
Chose not to vote 16.5% 0.4%  2.4%  6.1%  17.6%      6.3%  9.4%    4.9%  35.9%  0.4%  16.8%  100%  
                                
Green Party 7.1% 0.2%  1.7%  75.4%  15%  0.3%    2.2%  0.7%    0.3%      4.2%  100%  
                                
National Party 29.9% 0.4%  3.3%  1.1%  6.1%    0.7%  78.1%  2.9%  0.7%  0.3%  0.8%    5.6%  100%  
                                
New Zealand First Party 4.2% 0.3%  0.3%  1.9%  14.4%  0.2%    1.5%  76%    0.2%      5.2%  100%  
                                
Was not eligible to vote 2.8% 9.2%    45.4%  6.6%      25.3%        3.4%  10.1%    100%  
                                
Conservative 2.1%   62.7%  0.8%  8.8%      3.6%  2.3%      1.7%    20%  100%  
                                
Labour Party 17.4%   1.5%  6.6%  77%  0.5%  1.6%  4%  3.2%    0.1%      5.6%  100%  
                                
Don't know or can't remember 10%     4.8%  10.5%    3.5%  26.7%  8.8%      4.7%    41%  100%  
                                
Mana Party 0.8%     1.2%  9.4%  70.7%  12.8%              5.9%  100%  
                                
Maori Party 0.8%     5.4%  17.6%  21.9%  15.9%  25.9%  7.2%          6.1%  100%  
                                
Other party 0.1%     16.5%              83.5%        100%  
                                
United Future 0.4%     2.9%  5%      4.1%  26.2%  59.2%  2.7%        100%  
                                

Results of the September HorizonPoll party vote survey are here.

Web published results of this survey are here.

The November 2012 Roy Morgan poll also showing the current National-led coalition would be defeated by a narrow margin if an election were held now is here.


ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gaza.Scoop: UNRWA School, Ambulances Attacked - Gaza MOH

The Ministry of Health Gaza expresses its horror and outrage at the latest Israeli massacre moments ago at an UNRWA school sheltering displaced persons in Beit Hanoun. Ten people have been killed and there is a large number of wounded. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell:
On Gaza And Burning The Israeli Flag

One of the selling points in New Zealand’s campaign for a temporary seat on the Security Council is that we have a pluckily independent voice to offer on international conflicts.

This image is not entirely self-delusional. When we did occupy a temporary UN Security Council seat in the 1990s, New Zealand was forthright about the need for the international community to actively respond to the Rwanda genocide. On April 14, 1994, New Zealand, Nigeria and the Czech Republic were the only nations to call for a forceful UN intervention to halt the killings. It was a proud moment in the diplomatic record of the Bolger government.

What then, is the current National government doing with respect to the slaughter in Gaza? More>>

 

Parliament Today:

Minister Told Of FBI Investigation, Says INZ: Coleman Must Quit Or Be Sacked Over Dotcom Case - Harré

Immigration New Zealand has done the right thing in distancing itself from Jonathan Coleman’s claims that ministers were not aware of FBI involvement in Kim Dotcom’s residency application, says the Internet Party. More>>

ALSO:

Resignation Not Accepted: Transport Minister Breaches Aviation Security Rules

"Running late for a plane at Christchurch Airport, I without thought breached airport and airline security rules by entering the gate lounge through a door usually used for exit only..." More>>

ALSO:

TAIC Report: Urgent Recommendations After Melling Rail Accident

The Transport Accident Investigation Commission has made four urgent recommendations to KiwiRail following the accident two months ago (27 May) when a Matangi passenger train collided with a stop block at Melling Station, Lower Hutt. More>>

ALSO:

Red Tape: Local Regulations Go Under Microscope

The Government says it is accepting nearly all of the recommendations the Productivity Commission has made on ways to improve local regulations. More>>

ALSO:

Spending Questions: Claudette Hauiti To Step Aside At Election

National Party President Peter Goodfellow confirms that he has received notification from List MP Claudette Hauiti that she plans to step aside at the 20 September election. More>>

ALSO:

EPA: Board Of Inquiry Rejects Basin Flyover By Majority Of 3 To 1

The independent Board of Inquiry delegated to decide on the Basin Bridge Proposal has, by a majority decision (3 to 1), cancelled the Transport Agency’s Notice of Requirement and declined its resource consent applications for the construction, operation and maintenance of a flyover on State Highway 1 in Wellington City... More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news