Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


HorizonPoll: Coalition options on knife edge

Media release

Sunday December 2, 2012

Coalition options on knife edge: National, Labour enjoy strong support rises

National and Labour have enjoyed significant increases in support among eligible voters.

There would be a knife edge choice between potential National and Labour led coalitions if an election were held now.

New Zealand First, with control of the cross benches, would determine what happened in Parliament.

A nationwide HorizonPoll of 2,284 people 18+, conducted between November 23 and December2, shows National support has risen 6.2% since September to 31%. At the 2011 general election National won 32.31% of the votes of the total population aged 18+.

In the latest HorizonPoll Labour support has risen 4.7% to 23.8% of the total eligible voting population 18+.

It won 18.77% of all people aged 18+ at the 2011 general election.

New Zealand First is up 0.5% to 8.3% in the HorizonPoll, a 0.5% lift.

The Green party has 10.1%, down from 11.4 in late September.

 
18+ POPULATION SUPPORT TRACKED FROM 2011 GENERAL ELECTION 
        
 2011 election April 24- May 6, 2012 May 18 – June 6, 2012 July 6-18, 2012 September 21-25, 2012 Nov23- Dec 2 2012 
              
National 32.31 28.1 26.6 26.5 24.8 31 
              
Labour 18.77 23.4 23.2 20.5 19.1 23.8 
              
Green 7.55 11 8.2 13 11.4 10.1 
              
NZ First 4.5 5.4 6.4 5.9 7.8 8.3 
              

The results are weighted by six criteria, including party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the adult population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.1%.

COALITION OPTIONS

The results show the current National-led coalition would have 33.9% of adult population support, while a Labour-led coalition with the Green and Mana parties would have 34.6%.

NZ First could deliver 42.2% total support for a National-led coalition, 42.9% for a Labour-led one.

 
POTENTIAL COALITIONS - NZ FIRST ON CROSS BENCHES 
      
  Nat led   Lab led   
          
Act 0.8   Green 10.1 
          
Maori 1.6   Labour 23.6 
          
National 31   Mana 0.9 
          
United Future 0.5       
          
Total 33.9     34.6 
          
NZ First 8.3     8.3 
          
Total 42.2     42.9 
          

Support for the Conservative Party, another potential coalition party for National, is 3.2% (3.1% September). 5% or a seat in Parliament under current electoral law would be needed to the Conservatives to have a say in which main party led a coalition government.

The poll covers the period during which Labour held its annual conference. There was significant media coverage of leadership issues and a new policy to build 100,000 affordable homes.

NATIONAL, LABOUR VOTERS COME HOME

National’s rise results from a major return of support from those who voted for it in 2011.

In late September it had the support of 68.3% of its 2011 election voters. This is now up nearly 10% to 78%.

In September 18% of former National voters said they didn’t know who they would vote for. This has fallen to 5.6%.

Labour’s rise also reflects a 7% leap in 2011 voter loyalty, from 70.1% in September to 77% now.

The number of 2011 Labour voters who don’t know who to vote for has dropped from 14% to 5.6%.

The Greens have 75.4% voter loyalty, NZ First 76%, Act 49.5% - and the Maori Party just 21.9%. It has bled support to National, Labour and Mana.

The following tables shows results for all parties and current support of 2011 party voters:


Click for big version.
 
Q46. If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for with your party vote?

Multichoice - Single Answer Only

A. ACT New Zealand
B. Conservative Party
C. Green Party
D. Labour Party
E. Mana Party
F. Maori Party
G. National Party
H. New Zealand First Party
I. United Future
J. Other party
K. Choose not to vote
L. Not eligible to vote
M. Don't know

  Total A B C D E F G H I J K L M   
                                
                                
                                
ALL 2286 0.8%  3.2%  10.1%  23.8%  0.9%  1.6%  31%  8.3%  0.5%  1.1%  6.8%  0.4%  11.4%  100% 
                                
                            
                                
PARTY VOTE 2011                           
                                
ACT New Zealand 0.6% 49.5%  1.7%    5.6%    11.1%  13.9%            18.1%  100%  
                                
Chose not to vote 16.5% 0.4%  2.4%  6.1%  17.6%      6.3%  9.4%    4.9%  35.9%  0.4%  16.8%  100%  
                                
Green Party 7.1% 0.2%  1.7%  75.4%  15%  0.3%    2.2%  0.7%    0.3%      4.2%  100%  
                                
National Party 29.9% 0.4%  3.3%  1.1%  6.1%    0.7%  78.1%  2.9%  0.7%  0.3%  0.8%    5.6%  100%  
                                
New Zealand First Party 4.2% 0.3%  0.3%  1.9%  14.4%  0.2%    1.5%  76%    0.2%      5.2%  100%  
                                
Was not eligible to vote 2.8% 9.2%    45.4%  6.6%      25.3%        3.4%  10.1%    100%  
                                
Conservative 2.1%   62.7%  0.8%  8.8%      3.6%  2.3%      1.7%    20%  100%  
                                
Labour Party 17.4%   1.5%  6.6%  77%  0.5%  1.6%  4%  3.2%    0.1%      5.6%  100%  
                                
Don't know or can't remember 10%     4.8%  10.5%    3.5%  26.7%  8.8%      4.7%    41%  100%  
                                
Mana Party 0.8%     1.2%  9.4%  70.7%  12.8%              5.9%  100%  
                                
Maori Party 0.8%     5.4%  17.6%  21.9%  15.9%  25.9%  7.2%          6.1%  100%  
                                
Other party 0.1%     16.5%              83.5%        100%  
                                
United Future 0.4%     2.9%  5%      4.1%  26.2%  59.2%  2.7%        100%  
                                

Results of the September HorizonPoll party vote survey are here.

Web published results of this survey are here.

The November 2012 Roy Morgan poll also showing the current National-led coalition would be defeated by a narrow margin if an election were held now is here.


ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

Ruataniwha: DOC, Hawke's Bay Council Developer Take Supreme Court Appeal

The Department of Conservation and Hawke's Bay Regional Investment Company (HBRIC) are appealing to the Supreme Court over a conservation land swap which the Court of Appeal halted. More>>

ALSO:

With NZ's Marama Davidson: Women’s Flotilla Leaves Sicily – Heading For Gaza

Women representing 13 countries spanning five continents began their journey yesterday on Zaytouna-Oliva to the shores of Gaza, which has been under blockade since 2007. On board are a Nobel Peace Laureate, three parliamentarians, a decorated US diplomat, journalists, an Olympic athlete, and a physician. A list of the women with their background can be found here. More>>

Gordon Campbell: On The Key Style Of Crisis Management

At Monday’s post Cabinet press conference Key was in his finest wide- eyed “Problem? What problem?” mode. No, there wasn’t really a problem that top MPI officials had been at odds with each other over the meaning of the fisheries policy and how that policy should be pursued... More>>

ALSO:

Mt Roskill: Greens Will Not Stand In Likely Post-Goff By-Election

“The Green Party’s priority is changing the Government in 2017, and as part of that we’ve decided that we won’t stand a candidate in the probable Mt Roskill by-election... This decision shows the Memorandum of Understanding between Labour and the Green Party is working." More>>

ALSO:

Wellington: Predator Free Capital Plan

Wellington City Council (WCC), the Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) and NEXT Foundation, today announced a joint collaboration to make Wellington the first Predator Free capital city in the world. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Judith Collins’ Efforts At Self Correction

Thousands of prisoners currently in prison may be entitled to an earlier release than expected – and compensation – because Corrections has incorrectly calculated their term of imprisonment. Unless of course, the government buries its mistakes by changing the law and retro-actively getting itself off the hook… More>>

ALSO:

More Justice & Corrections

Sector Opposes Bill: Local Government Bill Timeframe Extended

The Minister of Local Government Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga has asked the Select Committee to extend the report back date for the Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2). More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news