Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number...

5 December 2012
For immediate release
TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number, Any Number ….

“The government seems to be plucking figures out of the air in a rather desperate attempt to claim that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will deliver concrete economic benefits to New Zealand, and justify trade offs that will have serious fiscal and social consequences”, says Professor Jane Kelsey who monitors the negotiations.

Not long ago, Trade Minister Tim Groser said: “Let me put down a marker: I ‘look forward’ with a certain weary sense to the inevitable attempts to ‘model’ the gains from TPP in some econometric model. I am a deep sceptic here.”

Likewise, Wikileaks exposed former lead trade negotiator Mark Sinclair’s view, expressed to a US official, of “a public perception that getting into the US will be an ‘El Dorado’ for New Zealand's commercial sector. However, the reality is different.’”

“Now the government is on the back foot in trying to sell the TPPA, we are seeing the return of that hyperbole”, Jane Kelsey said.

Yesterday the Prime Minister defended the proposed TPPA, saying “forecasts suggest the gains for New Zealand could be as high as 1.4 per cent of GDP, roughly $US2.9 billion ($NZ3.5b).” There is no indication of the source of this projection.

Presumably it was the East-West Centre’s econometric study from October 2011. The study assumed that all 21 APEC countries joined a regional wide agreement in which they largely removed their existing export restrictions, while it ignored any fiscal, economic, social or environmental downsides. New Zealand was mentioned in a single line of two tables and several passing references.

The NZIER’s carefully worded review of the report’s application to New Zealand in May 2012 noted these shortcomings of GCE modeling exercises, concluding that it provided “a good sense of the potential macroeconomic impacts of TPP if the agreement developed along the lines as assumed in the study.”

“But that study projected ‘welfare gains’ of US$1.7 billion. It is not clear how this has grown to $3 billion”, Jane Kelsey observed.

“When you are Prime Minister, maybe you assume that you can pluck figures out of the air. But there is a serious onus on the government to provide a robust costbenefit analysis based on various real world scenarios, which can inform debate about whether the TPP will genuinely foster economic growth and jobs, including the impact on future innovation, and fully cost the trade-offs the government is contemplating in return”.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell:
On The Last Rites For The TPP

The Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal is one of those litmus issues that has always had more to do with one’s place on the political spectrum than with any imminent reality.

To date, the Greens have opposed (a) a wide range of the leaked content of the TPP (b) the secretive way it has been negotiated and (c) the undemocratic way in which any final document would be ratified. Labour has shared some of those concerns, but while remaining generally supportive of the deal itself.

National has, for its part, been very enthusiastic about the TPP, while still giving assurances about Pharmac being protected... For the TPP’s friends and foes alike though, the end now seems nigh. More>>

 
 

Gordon Campbell: On The Farcical Elevation Of David Seymour

With the election won, it’s time to find jobs for the boy. David Seymour is the Act Party’s latest scrounger to be rewarded by the National Party, and not only with a seat in Parliament. More>>

ALSO:

As Key Mulls Joining ISIS Fighting: McCully Speech To UN Backs Security Council Bid

It is an honour to address you today on behalf of the Prime Minister and Government of New Zealand. Our General Election took place last week - our Prime Minister Rt Hon John Key is engaged in forming a government and that is why he is unable to be here in New York... More>>

ALSO:

Labour: Cunliffe Triggers Party Wide Leadership Contest

David Cunliffe has resigned as Labour Leader, but says he will seek re-election... If there is any contest the election will have to go through a process involving the party membership and union affiliates. More>>

ALSO:

Flyover Appeal: Progress And Certainty, Or Confusion And More Delays?

Lindsay Shelton: The Transport Agency, embarrassed by the rejection of its flyover alongside the Basin Reserve, says it’s appealing because the decision could “constrain progress.” Yet for most clear-sighted Wellingtonians a 300-metre-long concrete structure above Kent and Cambridge Terraces would in no way be seen as progress… More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Cunliffe’s Last Stand

Right now, embattled Labour leader David Cunliffe has three options. None of them are particularly attractive for him personally, or for the Labour Party... More>>

ALSO:

Key Seeking 'New Ideas': Look To Children’s Commissioner On Poverty - Greens

John Key should not reinvent the wheel when it comes to ideas for tackling child poverty, and instead look to the recommendations of the Children’s Commissioner’s Expert Group on Child Poverty, Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei says. More>>

ALSO:

'Safe To Re-Enter' - OIA Docs: Safety Is Absolute Priority At Pike River Mine

“We understand that the time it is taking to complete our evaluation of the risks is frustrating for the family members and we are trying to complete this work as quickly as we can,” Ms Dunphy says. “It is Solid Energy’s responsibility to make this decision and we will do so, once we have all the information required to make a fully-informed decision.” More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
More RSS  RSS
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news