Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number...

5 December 2012
For immediate release
TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number, Any Number ….

“The government seems to be plucking figures out of the air in a rather desperate attempt to claim that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will deliver concrete economic benefits to New Zealand, and justify trade offs that will have serious fiscal and social consequences”, says Professor Jane Kelsey who monitors the negotiations.

Not long ago, Trade Minister Tim Groser said: “Let me put down a marker: I ‘look forward’ with a certain weary sense to the inevitable attempts to ‘model’ the gains from TPP in some econometric model. I am a deep sceptic here.”

Likewise, Wikileaks exposed former lead trade negotiator Mark Sinclair’s view, expressed to a US official, of “a public perception that getting into the US will be an ‘El Dorado’ for New Zealand's commercial sector. However, the reality is different.’”

“Now the government is on the back foot in trying to sell the TPPA, we are seeing the return of that hyperbole”, Jane Kelsey said.

Yesterday the Prime Minister defended the proposed TPPA, saying “forecasts suggest the gains for New Zealand could be as high as 1.4 per cent of GDP, roughly $US2.9 billion ($NZ3.5b).” There is no indication of the source of this projection.

Presumably it was the East-West Centre’s econometric study from October 2011. The study assumed that all 21 APEC countries joined a regional wide agreement in which they largely removed their existing export restrictions, while it ignored any fiscal, economic, social or environmental downsides. New Zealand was mentioned in a single line of two tables and several passing references.

The NZIER’s carefully worded review of the report’s application to New Zealand in May 2012 noted these shortcomings of GCE modeling exercises, concluding that it provided “a good sense of the potential macroeconomic impacts of TPP if the agreement developed along the lines as assumed in the study.”

“But that study projected ‘welfare gains’ of US$1.7 billion. It is not clear how this has grown to $3 billion”, Jane Kelsey observed.

“When you are Prime Minister, maybe you assume that you can pluck figures out of the air. But there is a serious onus on the government to provide a robust costbenefit analysis based on various real world scenarios, which can inform debate about whether the TPP will genuinely foster economic growth and jobs, including the impact on future innovation, and fully cost the trade-offs the government is contemplating in return”.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Anzac Issue Out Now: Werewolf 47

Alison McCulloch: Lest We Remember

Local iwi have plans to spruce up the Te Ranga site as part of the 150th commemorations this year of key battles in the “New Zealand Wars”, but not a lot of money to do it with.

Information gathered from numerous government agencies shows that while more than $25 million is being spent on monuments and commemorations relating to foreign wars, primarily World War I and its centenary, only around $250,000 has been set aside for those fought on our own soil. More>>

Anne Russell: Anzac Day - Identity Politics, With Guns

Even cursory research into media reports from the past forty years reveals a cultural shift in the commemoration of Anzac Day. Among other things, turnout at Dawn services has increased significantly in recent decades.

Contemporary numbers are estimated at 3,000-4,000 in Wellington, and 10,000-15,000 in Auckland. Newspaper reports from the 1970s and 80s estimated Wellington turnouts at 300-800, and Auckland at anywhere from 600 to 4,000. More>>

 
 

Parliament Today:

Spookwatch: New Inspector-General Of Intelligence And Security Appointed

Prime Minister John Key hasannounced the appointment of Cheryl Gwyn as Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security. The appointment was made by the Administrator of the Government on behalf of the Governor General and is for a term of three years. More>>

Crowdsourcing: Green Party Launches Internet Rights And Freedoms Bill

The Green Party has today launched the Internet Rights and Freedoms Bill, New Zealand’s first ever Bill crowdsourced by a political party. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Shane Jones Departure

Shane Jones has left Parliament in the manner to which we have become accustomed, with self interest coming in first and second, and with the interests of the Labour Party (under whose banner he served) way, way back down the track. More>>

COMMENT:

Multimedia: PM Post-Cabinet Press Conference - April 22 2014

The Prime Minister met with reporters to discuss: • The recent improvement in the economy with a growing job market • Income and wealth inequality • Easter trading laws • The New Zealander killed in a drone strike in Yemen... More>>

ALSO:

Easter Trading: Workers 'Can Kiss Goodbye To Easter Sunday Off'

The Government’s decision to “reprioritise” scarce labour inspector resources by abandoning the enforcement of Easter Sunday Shop Trading laws means workers can kiss goodbye to a guaranteed day off, says Labour’s Associate Labour Issues spokesperson Darien Fenton. More>>

ALSO:

ACT Don't Go For Maximum Penalty: Three Strikes For Burglary, Three Years Jail

Three strikes for burglary was introduced to England and Wales in 1999. As in New Zealand, burglary was out of control and given a low priority by the police and the courts. A Labour government passed a three strikes law whereby a third conviction for burglaries earned a mandatory three years in prison... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Drone Strikes And Judith Collins‘ Last Stand

The news that a New Zealand citizen was killed last November in a US drone attack in Yemen brings the drones controversy closer to home. More>>

ALSO:

Elections: New Electorate Boundaries Finalised

New boundaries for the country’s 64 General and seven Māori electorates have been finalised – with an additional electorate created in Auckland. More>>

ALSO:

Policies: Labour’s Economic Upgrade For Manufacturing

Labour Leader David Cunliffe has today announced his Economic Upgrade for the manufacturing sector – a plan that will create better jobs and higher wages. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Life And ACC Work Of Sir Owen Woodhouse

With the death of Sir Owen Woodhouse, the founding father of the Accident Compensation Scheme, New Zealand has lost one of the titans of its post-war social policy. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news