Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number...

5 December 2012
For immediate release
TPPA Gains: $1.7 Billion, $3 Billion – Pick A Number, Any Number ….

“The government seems to be plucking figures out of the air in a rather desperate attempt to claim that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will deliver concrete economic benefits to New Zealand, and justify trade offs that will have serious fiscal and social consequences”, says Professor Jane Kelsey who monitors the negotiations.

Not long ago, Trade Minister Tim Groser said: “Let me put down a marker: I ‘look forward’ with a certain weary sense to the inevitable attempts to ‘model’ the gains from TPP in some econometric model. I am a deep sceptic here.”

Likewise, Wikileaks exposed former lead trade negotiator Mark Sinclair’s view, expressed to a US official, of “a public perception that getting into the US will be an ‘El Dorado’ for New Zealand's commercial sector. However, the reality is different.’”

“Now the government is on the back foot in trying to sell the TPPA, we are seeing the return of that hyperbole”, Jane Kelsey said.

Yesterday the Prime Minister defended the proposed TPPA, saying “forecasts suggest the gains for New Zealand could be as high as 1.4 per cent of GDP, roughly $US2.9 billion ($NZ3.5b).” There is no indication of the source of this projection.

Presumably it was the East-West Centre’s econometric study from October 2011. The study assumed that all 21 APEC countries joined a regional wide agreement in which they largely removed their existing export restrictions, while it ignored any fiscal, economic, social or environmental downsides. New Zealand was mentioned in a single line of two tables and several passing references.

The NZIER’s carefully worded review of the report’s application to New Zealand in May 2012 noted these shortcomings of GCE modeling exercises, concluding that it provided “a good sense of the potential macroeconomic impacts of TPP if the agreement developed along the lines as assumed in the study.”

“But that study projected ‘welfare gains’ of US$1.7 billion. It is not clear how this has grown to $3 billion”, Jane Kelsey observed.

“When you are Prime Minister, maybe you assume that you can pluck figures out of the air. But there is a serious onus on the government to provide a robust costbenefit analysis based on various real world scenarios, which can inform debate about whether the TPP will genuinely foster economic growth and jobs, including the impact on future innovation, and fully cost the trade-offs the government is contemplating in return”.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Parliament Today: State Opening Of Parliament

The House sits at 10.30am today before MPs are summoned to hear the Speech from the Throne in the Legislative Council Chamber.

The speech delivered by the Governor-General on the Government’s behalf outlines its priorities for this Parliament.

After this MPs will return to the House for the presentation of petitions and papers and the introduction of any bills.

The Government has five notices of motion on the Order Paper which can be debated. These relate to relating to the appointment of the Deputy Speaker, Assistant Speakers, the reinstatement of business in a carryover motion and one on “Entities to be deemed public organisations”. More>>

 

Housing, Iraq: PM Press Conference – 20 October 2014

Prime Minister John Key met with press today to discuss:
• Housing prices and redevelopment in Auckland
• Discussions with Tony Abbott on the governmental response to ISIS, and New Zealand’s election to the UN Security Council More>>

ALSO:

Labour: Review Team Named, Leadership Campaign Starts

Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban.

ALSO:


Roy Morgan Poll: National Slips, Labour Hits Lows

The first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll since the NZ Election shows National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the September 20 Election). This isn’t unusual, National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories... However, support for the main opposition Labour Party has crashed to 22.5% (down 2.63% and the lowest support for Labour since the 1914 NZ Election as United Labour). More>>

ALSO:

In On First Round: New Zealand Wins Security Council Seat

Prime Minister John Key has welcomed New Zealand securing a place on the United Nations Security Council for the 2015-16 term. More>>

ALSO:

TPP Leak: Intellectual Property Text Confirms Risk - Jane Kelsey

The US is continuing its assault on generic medicines through numerous proposed changes to patent laws. ‘These are bound to impact on Pharmac if they are accepted’, according to Professor Kelsey... Copyright is another area of ongoing sensitivity... More>>

ALSO:

RMA: Smith Plans Reform To Ease Urban Development

Newly appointed Environment Minister Nick Smith has announced Resource Management Act reform to foster urban development, where high land prices and expensive resource consents are blocking efforts to provide affordable housing. More>>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On New Zealand getting involved (again) in other people's wars

Apparently, the Key government is still pondering how New Zealand will contribute to the fight against Islamic State. Long may it ponder, given the lack of consensus among our allies as to how to fight IS, where to fight it (Syria, Iraq, or both?) and with whose ground troops, pray tell? More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On child poverty, and David Shearer’s latest outburst

The politicisation of (a) the public service and (b) the operations of the Official Information Act have been highlighted by the policy advice package on child poverty that RNZ’s resolute political editor Brent Edwards has finally prised out of the Ministry of Social Development. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On the government’s review of security laws

So the Key government is about to launch a four week review of the ability of our existing legislation to deal with “suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters, and other violent extremists.”

According to its terms of reference, the review will consider whether the SIS, GCSB and Police are sufficiently able right now to (a) investigate and monitor suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters… More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news