Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


PM’s Claim Of $3b Benefits From TPPA Without Evidence

CTU Media Release

5 December 2012

PM’s Claim Of $3b Benefits From TPPA Completely Without Evidence

A claim by the Prime Minister yesterday that “a Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement could boost New Zealand's economy by more than $3 billion a year” is completely without any evidence says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg.

“It should be an embarrassment to the Minister of Trade, Tim Groser, who is on record as saying he was a “deep sceptic” as to such attempts to quantify the benefits of agreements. He noted that his Australian counterpart, Dr Craig Emerson, who has a PhD in economics from the ANU, was equally sceptical.”

“The only modelling of a possible Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement is one by the Hawaii based East-West Centre in October 2011. Its econometric model – of the type Mr Groser and Dr Emerson were deeply sceptical about – calculated that the trade benefits would be only US$300m (about NZ$375m) a year unless Japan and Korea joined. The largest calculated benefit would be if there was a full agreement covering the whole of the Pacific region including China and ASEAN, and even then the benefits were only US$1.7b (about NZ$2.1b). Negotiators are far from reaching even a limited agreement, let alone the whole Pacific region”, said Rosenberg. “The current proposals include ones that China for example would never join because it attacks their state owned companies and has intellectual property provisions it would never agree to.”

“But even those figures, which fall far short of the PM’s claim, are misleading on their own because they only look at goods and services trade.”

“For example, they do not include the costs of the extreme intellectual property claims the US is making. If Pharmac, which estimates it saved the country $937m in 2010 alone (and rising) was hamstrung by the big pharmaceutical companies as the US wants, and lost even half of these gains, the net benefits from the current grouping would be negative. Just one successful claim against the government by an overseas investor under the investment dispute procedure the government appears to be happy to accept could cost tens or hundreds of millions more.”

“If corporations are given the right in other proposals in the TPPA to influence our laws and regulations so that they are light-handed or “business-friendly”, we could find ourselves with further rounds of hugely expensive regulatory failure. Consider the leaky building disaster which is the result of “light-handed” regulation in the building industry and estimated to have cost the country between $11b and $33b – a similar magnitude to the Christchurch earthquake – and the crash of the weakly regulated finance company sector, which is estimated to cost the taxpayer a net $1b, and investors much more.”

Rosenberg says “in addition, even the goods and services calculations depend on assumptions that are open to debate – such as that the US will open its agricultural markets to New Zealand dairy and meat imports. Many observers, including supporters of the TPPA, doubt this will happen. Calculations on services are fraught with problems. It is interesting though, that the modelling shows a fall in New Zealand mining exports – one of the centre pieces of the Government’s economic policies – and further falls in textiles, clothing and footwear exports.”

An international group of trade unionists will be in Auckland from today until Sunday to observe the negotiations – to the extent they can be observed behind closed doors. They share deep concerns at the effects of proposals in the negotiations on decent jobs, labour rights, the impact of greatly extended investor powers, the effect on medicine prices, the loss of local preferences under government procurement, and many other aspects. They will be speaking to negotiators and taking part in activities being organised by allies in other organisations.

--

Notes:
The Prime Minister’s statement is reported at
TPP worth $3 billion a year: Key
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/15536524/tpp-worth-3-billion-a-year-key/
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=158143&cat=978&fm=newsmain%2Cnarts
The Trade Minister’s speech referred to is
The Trans-Pacific Partnership: State of Play, 15 June 2011
http://beehive.govt.nz/speech/trans-pacific-partnership-state-play

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

Parliament Today:

The Kids: OECD Report Shows Huge Impact Of Poverty On Education

A new report from the OECD has again highlighted the negative effects of poverty, showing that disadvantaged children in New Zealand are more than six times more likely to underachieve in maths than children from wealthier homes. More>>

ALSO:

Pacific: NZ Pledges $500,000 To Help Address Zika

“With the Zika virus now confirmed in a number of Pacific countries, New Zealand is committed to helping limit the impact and spread of the virus in the region,” says Mr McCully. “New Zealand will provide $250,000 as a contribution to the WHO to implement the Pacific Zika Action Plan, and a further $250,000 to enable countries in the region to respond rapidly if required." More>>

ALSO:

Labour: Police Commissioner 'Doesn’t Get Force Needs'

The Police Commissioner has let down the public and his own force by insisting the police have what they need despite it taking a year to solve a burglary and overwhelming number of officers saying they are under-resourced, says Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The US Pressure To Expand Our Role In Iraq

Foreign news services are being more forthcoming about what the “next 12 months” will entail – essentially, the defence ministers will be under US pressure to increase their “training” role preparatory to an assault on the city of Mosul in northern Iraq. More>>

ALSO:

Parliament Restarts: Prime Minister’s Statement

Our policy agenda and legislative programme will reflect the Government’s four priorities: • to responsibly manage the Government’s finances • to build a more competitive and productive economy • to deliver better public services to New Zealanders, an • to support the rebuilding of Christchurch. More>>

ALSO:

NZEI Survey Report: Special Needs Students Missing Out

The survey revealed that around 16 percent of students were on schools’ special needs registers, but nearly 90 percent of schools’ special needs coordinators did not believe there was adequate support for students and their learning... More>>

ALSO:

Interim Report: Waitangi Tribunal On Ture Whenua Legislation

Labour on Proposed changes to Maori land rules: “To have Treaty Negotiations Minister Chris Finlayson dismiss findings as ‘bizarre’ is totally disingenuous and disrespectful. What’s bizarre is Maori Development Minister Te Ururoa Flavell stubbornly pushing through this Bill before the Waitangi Tribunal has even completed its report..." More>>

ALSO:

Spy Update: Appointment Of GCSB Acting Director

GCSB Chief Legal Advisor Lisa Fong will become the Acting Director of the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) from 15 February 2016, Minister Responsible for the GCSB Christopher Finlayson announced today. More>>

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news