Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


WoF calculations at odds

7 December 2012

WoF calculations at odds

The Motor Trade Association (MTA) is concerned that some of the key data being considered as part of the Government’s review of warrant of fitness (WoF) frequency lacks consistency, with the potential risks to motorists much higher than originally thought.

With a decision by Associate Minister of Transport Minister Simon Bridges expected shortly MTA says motorists need to know just what the real facts are.

Recently announced findings from a report into the road safety benefits of vehicle roadworthiness inspections by Australia’s Monash University, appear to be at odds with those provided in the Government’s own cost benefit analysis.

The Monash report, sponsored by a vehicle safety research group that includes the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) ACC and AA, concluded that “the 6-monthly inspections compared to annual inspections were not considered to be cost effective.”

The Monash report however indicates that there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of changes in WoF inspection frequency, on road safety; and that social costs and the safety impact could potentially be significantly larger than the estimate in the Ministry of Transport (MoT) cost-benefit analysis.

MoT’s cost benefit analysis indicates that the implementation of Option 2 (annual inspections after vehicle age three) - the option most similar to the scenario modelled in the Monash report - could result in approximately 2.3 additional deaths and 30 additional accidents involving injury per year at an annual social cost of $17.4m[1].

At considerable variance from the Government’s own analysis, the Monash report initially estimated the mid-point increase in the overall crash rate at 8 percent. At this level the result could be approximately 25.6 additional deaths and 325 crashes involving injury each year, at an annual social cost of around $192m.

The Monash report however concludes that an 8 percent estimate is unreasonably high as a mid-point and that a more realistic increase in the crash rate would be one in the lower end of the confidence interval (ie, between 0.4 and 8 percent). The actual impact of the change in inspection frequency could therefore be an increase of approximately 1.3 to 25.6 extra deaths and 16 to 325 extra accidents involving injury, each year. The annual increase in the social cost of reduced road safety, based on the Monash report, is most likely to be between $13.5 and $270m [2].

MTA spokesman Ian Stronach says “These projections are a far cry from what Government initially showed, and it will be difficult for motorists to know what the real figures might be. The Monash study was commissioned in 2010 and it can hardly have been said to have been rushed, so why are there such large differences in the outcomes being suggested?”

The Ministry of Transport also estimates that moving the WoF frequency out to 12 months for vehicles up to 12 years of age, could mean the loss of between 1,500 and 2,000 jobs per year. With deaths on roads increasing at the moment and unemployment increasing MTA considers it would be irresponsible of the Government to make substantial changes to the vehicle inspection regimes at the moment.

Stronach adds “This report was partly funded by NZTA and MTA cannot understand at all why the Ministry of Transport did not use these figures in their own cost benefit analysis.”

[1] Table 1: MoT annual safety impacts

DeathsSeriousMinorSocial cost ($m)
Option 10.71.67.7$5.4
Option 22.3524.7$17.4
Option 48.417.988.5$62.9

[2] Table 2: Monash annual safety impacts

Increase in crash rateDeathsSeriousMinorSocial cost ($m)
15%48.1102.4506.5$360.0
8%25.654.6270.1$192.0
0.40%1.32.713.5$9.6

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: On The Ombudsman’s Verdict On Paula Rebstock And Ian Rennie

Unfortunately, the brave and damning report by Ombudsman Ron Paterson on the “flawed” and “unfair” inquiry conducted by Dame Paula Rebstock into events at MFAT pulls back the veil on a far wider issue. More>>

ALSO:

Charities' Report: Stressed Families - Overstretched Services

“Like so many of the whānau and families they serve social service organisations are under huge financial stress. The support demanded from desperate people in communities is far outreaching the resources available.” More>>

ALSO:

Detention: Wellingtonians Protest Treatment Of Refugees

Peace Action Wellington (PAW) and around 50 Wellingtonians blockaded the Australian High Commission, creating a symbolic detention centre to protest the Australian Government's policy of mandatory offshore detention for refugees and asylum seekers. More>>

ALSO:

Diver's Alarums: Breach Means Training Provider Must Repay $1.47 Million

The New Zealand School of Outdoor Studies is to repay $1.47 million (GST-exclusive) to the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) following an investigation which showed that some student enrolments between 2009 -2014 could not be validated and that courses were under-delivered against their agreement with the TEC. More>>

ALSO:

Education: Government Plans Suggest Bulk Funding Return

Plans by the Government to return to bulk funding are likely to see increased class sizes and schools most in need missing out on much-needed resources, Labour’s Acting Education spokesperson Grant Robertson says. More>>

ALSO:

Interim Report: Auckland Looks Long Term To Pay-Per-Km Road Pricing

Aucklanders can expect to be paying variable rates per kilometre to travel on the city's most congested roads under an emerging transport strategy being formulated by the government and the Auckland Council. More>>

ALSO:

Despite Promises: Government Extends Iraq Deployment

Cabinet has agreed to extend New Zealand’s contribution to the joint New Zealand-Australia mission to train Iraqi Security Forces until November 2018. More>>

ALSO:

On The 'Terrorism' Card:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news