Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


WoF calculations at odds

7 December 2012

WoF calculations at odds

The Motor Trade Association (MTA) is concerned that some of the key data being considered as part of the Government’s review of warrant of fitness (WoF) frequency lacks consistency, with the potential risks to motorists much higher than originally thought.

With a decision by Associate Minister of Transport Minister Simon Bridges expected shortly MTA says motorists need to know just what the real facts are.

Recently announced findings from a report into the road safety benefits of vehicle roadworthiness inspections by Australia’s Monash University, appear to be at odds with those provided in the Government’s own cost benefit analysis.

The Monash report, sponsored by a vehicle safety research group that includes the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) ACC and AA, concluded that “the 6-monthly inspections compared to annual inspections were not considered to be cost effective.”

The Monash report however indicates that there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of changes in WoF inspection frequency, on road safety; and that social costs and the safety impact could potentially be significantly larger than the estimate in the Ministry of Transport (MoT) cost-benefit analysis.

MoT’s cost benefit analysis indicates that the implementation of Option 2 (annual inspections after vehicle age three) - the option most similar to the scenario modelled in the Monash report - could result in approximately 2.3 additional deaths and 30 additional accidents involving injury per year at an annual social cost of $17.4m[1].

At considerable variance from the Government’s own analysis, the Monash report initially estimated the mid-point increase in the overall crash rate at 8 percent. At this level the result could be approximately 25.6 additional deaths and 325 crashes involving injury each year, at an annual social cost of around $192m.

The Monash report however concludes that an 8 percent estimate is unreasonably high as a mid-point and that a more realistic increase in the crash rate would be one in the lower end of the confidence interval (ie, between 0.4 and 8 percent). The actual impact of the change in inspection frequency could therefore be an increase of approximately 1.3 to 25.6 extra deaths and 16 to 325 extra accidents involving injury, each year. The annual increase in the social cost of reduced road safety, based on the Monash report, is most likely to be between $13.5 and $270m [2].

MTA spokesman Ian Stronach says “These projections are a far cry from what Government initially showed, and it will be difficult for motorists to know what the real figures might be. The Monash study was commissioned in 2010 and it can hardly have been said to have been rushed, so why are there such large differences in the outcomes being suggested?”

The Ministry of Transport also estimates that moving the WoF frequency out to 12 months for vehicles up to 12 years of age, could mean the loss of between 1,500 and 2,000 jobs per year. With deaths on roads increasing at the moment and unemployment increasing MTA considers it would be irresponsible of the Government to make substantial changes to the vehicle inspection regimes at the moment.

Stronach adds “This report was partly funded by NZTA and MTA cannot understand at all why the Ministry of Transport did not use these figures in their own cost benefit analysis.”

[1] Table 1: MoT annual safety impacts

DeathsSeriousMinorSocial cost ($m)
Option 10.71.67.7$5.4
Option 22.3524.7$17.4
Option 48.417.988.5$62.9

[2] Table 2: Monash annual safety impacts

Increase in crash rateDeathsSeriousMinorSocial cost ($m)
15%48.1102.4506.5$360.0
8%25.654.6270.1$192.0
0.40%1.32.713.5$9.6

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Two Dead, One Injured – Suspect Arrested:

Police apprehended Russell John Tully just after 5pm this evening following the armed incident in Ashburton this morning.

Canterbury dog section and AOS apprehended Tully not far from Lake Hood. No shots were fired although Tully will be treated for minor dog-bite injuries.

Tully is now in custody at Ashburton Police Station. More>>


  • 3 News Out-Link - Livestream: Ashburton shooting press conference from 5pm

  •  

    Parliament Today:

    John Key Press Conference: Ashburton Shootings, Judith Collins Inquiry

    Prime Minister John Key has delayed the release of Nationals’ fiscal policy in light of this morning’s shooting at a Work and Income office in Ashburton... Key also answered questions about Judith Collins, and confirmed that independent inquiry will be held with regard to allegations made against Collins. More>>

    Gordon Campbell:
    On John Key’s ‘Blame It On Judith’ Strategy

    Right now, Prime Minister John Key seems intent on limiting the scope of any inquiry into his government’s dealings with Cameron Slater. The declared aim is to make that inquiry solely about Judith Collins’ behavior with respect to the Serious Fraud Office. More>>

    ALSO:

    Gordon Campbell: On The Debate, And The Collins Accusation

    Debating is a peculiar discipline in that what you say is less important than how you’re saying it. Looking poised, being articulate and staying on topic generally wins the day – and on that score, Labour leader David Cunliffe won what turned out to be a bruising encounter with Prime Minister John Key last night on TVNZ. More>>

    ALSO:

    Gordon Campbell: On Winston Peters' Latest Bout Of Immigrant Bashing

    It is only one poll, but rather than cannibalising each other's vote, Colin Craig and Winston Peters do seem to be managing to find the room to co-exist... Few are questioning how Peters got to this happy place, and what it says about the mood of the electorate. More>>

    ALSO:

    More Immigration News: First People Trafficking Charges

    The first people trafficking charges in New Zealand have been brought by Immigration New Zealand (INZ)... The defendants have been charged under the Crimes Act 1961 for arranging by deception the entry of 18 Indian nationals into New Zealand. More>>

    Collins 'Misinterprets Media Reports': "Too Compromised To Remain Justice Minister"

    Bizarre claims by Judith Collins this morning that she had been cleared of inappropriate behaviour by the Privacy Commissioner demonstrates she is too compromised to remain Justice Minister, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. More>>

    ALSO:

    Labour On Climate Change: Focus On The Now For The Future

    A Labour Government will put in place a comprehensive climate change strategy focusing on both mitigation and adaptation, establish an independent Climate Commission and implement carbon budgeting, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson Moana Mackey. More>>

    ALSO:

    Gordon Campbell: On National’s Housing Assistance Plan

    So, as many as 90,000 people could derive some benefit from National’s housing assistance plans for low and middle-income earners... Yet in reality, the benefits seem likely to be insignificant, and they will be skewed towards those at the top end of the income group that’s supposedly the target. More>>

    ALSO:

    Election Data Consortium: National’s Worst Case Scenario At Stage One?

    A month out from the general election and ipredict traders are still forecasting National’s vote to slip below current polling levels and there is potential for it to fall further. More>>

    ALSO:

    Get More From Scoop

     

    LATEST HEADLINES

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Politics
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news