Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


New Zealand should prepare urgently for coming oil shortages

New Zealand should prepare urgently for coming oil shortages

It may be a very serious mistake to assume that oil will continue to be readily available, Bruce Robinson a Peak Oil expert said today.

Trouble in the Middle East, such as Iran being bombed, might cause a sudden world oil shortage, as 20% of the world’s oil is shipped from the Persian Gulf, through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

As well, global oil shortages are likely, perhaps within 5 years. Existing giant oilfields are now declining faster than new fields are being discovered. Peak Oil will cause substantial disruptions to automobile dependent countries. The on-going hype in the US and now in Australia about shale oil is unlikely to change the overall picture.

Mr. Robinson is Convenor of ASPO-Australia, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and vice-president of ASPO-International.

He said a major opportunity for NZ was the proposed national transport SmartCard, which should also include provision for petrol rationing and public transport rationing, to prepare for the risk of fuel shortages. Petrol rationing should allocate scarce fuel efficiently and equitably. Rationing by price would cripple farming communities, for example. An electronic card-based system is the only transparent way of allowing people with different needs, such health problems or a crucial job, to have access to fuel ahead of people who could easily ride a bike, or catch public transport. If say 25% of motorists wanted to change to public transport, existing bus and train capacity would be overwhelmed, so if fuel rationing is needed, public transport rationing is also required.

Expanding public transport and bicycle facilities and securing and expanding train lines are vital steps. More important is informing people to prepare in case future fuel shortages arrive much sooner than generally expected.

An Australian CSIRO economic modeling Future Fuel Forum in 2008 had a worst case scenario of $8/litre fuel by 2018. Since then the GFC has curbed oil consumption worldwide, but the underlying risk still remains. A suppressed 2009 report by Australia’s Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics estimated, like many other studies, global oil shortages starting in 2017. A valuable research paper “The next oil shock?” was released in October 2010 by the NZ Parliamentary Library, but it has been overlooked by transport planners. The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security reported “We will face an Oil Crunch in the next five years. We have time to prepare, but the challenge is to use the time well”.

NZ, like Australia, has no separate strategic fuel reserve, and we are assuming the oil tankers will continue to come regularly. International shortages will see tankers diverted elsewhere and we cannot rely on “business-as-usual” planning. Advance preparation will be essential, but “Optimism Bias” is clouding judgements, Mr Robinson said.

New Zealand people prepare for floods and earthquakes, but there is no serious preparation in case fuel shortages happen. There is a great deal that can be done to reduce the impact of future fuel shortages, but preparations need to be started now. Leaving things till a crisis hits will be too late.
ends
=

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

#SaveCampbellLive : Mediaworks Delivered 104,000 Petition Signatures At TV3's Newton HQ
#PonyTailGate #TailGate Full Coverage

Pukeahu Park : ANZAC 100th Anniversary Dawn Service In Pictures

Roughly 18,000 people gathered this morning at Pukeahu Memorial Park for the Anzac day centenary. Anticipating the large turnout, patrons arrived as early as 4.30. It was virtually impossible to get near the Memorial after 5am. By 6, the crowds on Taranaki Street had stretched as far back as the Z Petrol station.

The screens erected around the park displayed the live events to those who had turned up. The heat generated by the huge number of people caused many to take a turn. Medics and ambulances were on hand for the fainting crowd members. Only twenty minutes into the ceremony, one medic said they had already dealt with 15 to 20 spells. More>>

 

PARLIAMENT TODAY:

War: What’s To Commemorate?

Gordon Campbell in Werewolf: Is there anything that can be validly commemorated on this 100th anniversary of Gallipoli? Beyond, that is, a fleeting sense of empathy with the thousands of soldiers killed or wounded on April 25 1915 and in the months thereafter, until the whole thing was finally called off in December 1915. More>>

MORE IN WEREWOLF:

ALSO:

Peter Ellis Case: Minister Declines Request For Commission Of Inquiry

Justice Minister Amy Adams has declined a request from supporters of Peter Ellis for a Commission of Inquiry on the basis that an inquiry cannot be used to determine the liability of any person. More>>

Quakes: New Process For Red Zone Crown Offers

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has announced a process to give everyone a say on the Crown offers to owners of vacant, commercial/industrial and uninsured properties in the Residential Red Zone. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Battle Obama Is Waging Over The TPP

For the past two and a half years, this column has been arguing that the fate of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal will hinge on whether US President Barack Obama can win Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from Congress... Last week, the White House finally, finally unveiled a draft TPA Bill. More>>

ALSO:

Greens: Govt Breaks Free Doctors Visit Promise To Kids

Documents obtained by the Green Party show that the Government decided to fund only 90 percent of doctors’ visits for children suffering from an injury in an attempt trim the cost of the so-called “free” visits. More>>

ALSO:

Other Wars: Extension Of NZDF Commitment In Afghanistan

The New Zealand Defence Force’s commitment of mentors and support staff to the Afghan National Army Officer Academy in Afghanistan has been extended out to December 2016, Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee says. More>>

PM's Press Conference: Auckland Property Prices Increasing "Too Rapidly"

John Key accepted that Auckland property prices 'are going up too rapidly” in a press conference held today in Wellington, however he said that this is not anything new. More>>

ALSO:

Press Conference: ANZAC PMs Concerned About ISIL Bringing The War Home

Prime Minister Key and Prime Minister Abbott spoke of the bond formed between Australia and New Zealand in the “baptism of fire” of Gallipoli. Abbott stated that New Zealand and Australia’s values and interests are linked, and this is reflected in the joint operation in Iraq which will begin shortly. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news