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Roy Morgan Poll - National With Huge Lead Over Labour

Finding No. 4867
Available on Website: www.roymorgan.com
On February 28, 2013
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NATIONAL (47.5%) HAS HUGE LEAD OVER LABOUR (30.5%)
BIGGEST SINCE JULY 2012 & WOULD WIN CLOSE ELECTION

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47.5% (up 3.5% since early February and the highest since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 30.5% (down 4%); Greens are 12.5% (down 1%), New Zealand First 3% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party with some minor Party support would win the Election.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 3pts to 121.5 with 54% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32.5% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a surge in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (47.5%, up 3.5%) now with its biggest lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (30.5%, down 4%) since July 2012. Support for third party the Greens has also dropped to 12.5% (down 1%).

“Today’s result was surveyed prior to Opposition Leader David Shearer’s cabinet reshuffle and suggests the changes were badly needed by an Opposition Party that is yet to make a serious dent in the strong lead held by Prime Minister Key’s National since the 2008 New Zealand Election, now over 4 years ago. Although the next NZ Election is still over 18 months ago, Labour must significantly improve its position if it is to have a real chance of regaining power in late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,052 electors from February 11 – 24, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample SizePercentage Estimate
40%-60%25% or 75%10% or 90%5% or 95%
500±4.5±3.9±2.7±1.9
1,000±3.2±2.7±1.9±1.4
1,500±2.5±2.2±1.5±1.1


Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTENationalLabourGreen

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party*

ACT

NZ

United

Future

ConservativesOther
%%%%%%%%%%
General Election, July 27, 200220.941.3710.4n/an/a7.16.7n/a6.6
General Election, September 17, 200539.141.15.35.722.12n/a1.512.67n/a2.48
General Election, November 8, 200844.9333.996.724.072.39n/a3.650.87n/a3.38
General Election, November 26, 201147.3127.4811.066.591.431.081.070.602.650.73
ROY MORGAN POLL
January 3-15, 20124727.514.551.510.50.5n/a2.5
January 16-29, 20124630.5135.520.50.50.5n/a1.5
January 30 – February 12, 201245.53111.561.5110.5n/a2
February 13-26, 201245.531.51351.510.50.5n/a1.5
February 27-March 11, 201248.53012.5510.50.50.5n/a1.5
March 12-April 1, 20124430.51751.50.50.50.5n/a0.5
April 2-15, 201249.526.512.56.51.51^1n/a1.5
April 16-29, 20124728.51551.50.50.50.5n/a1.5
April 30-May 13, 201244.530155.510.5^1n/a2.5
May 14-27, 20124430.513.552110.5n/a2.5
May 28-June 7, 2012463112.55.51.51^0.5n/a2
June 8-24, 201247.5321241.50.50.50.5n/a1.5
June 25 – July 8, 201245.532.5134.510.50.50.5n/a2
July 9-22, 201247.530115.510.510.53^
July 23-August 5, 20124432144210.50.51.50.5
August 13-26, 201244.53214.552.5^1^0.5^
August 27-September 9, 201246.53112.54.52.510.5^10.5
September 10-23, 201243.53311.552.51.50.5^20.5
September 24 – October 7, 201241.533.513.56.51.5^0.50.520.5
October 8-21, 201243.529137.53.50.50.5^20.5
October 29 – November 11, 201245.532.510.55210.50.51.51
November 12-25, 20124531.513.56.51^0.50.51.5^
November 26 – December 9, 201245.533.51151.511^10.5
January 2-13, 20134631.512520.50.50.51.50.5
January 14-17, 20134631.513.55.51.50.50.5^0.50.5
January 28 – February 10, 20134434.513.540.50.50.5^20.5
February 11-24, 201347.530.512.532.50.50.50.520.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%. The Mana Party was launched in July 2011.


Two-Party Preferred: National Party led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

National Party-led Government*Parliamentary

Opposition Parties#

General Election, November 8, 200851.8448.16
General Election, November 26, 201150.4146.21
ROY MORGAN POLL
January 3-15, 201249.548
January 16-29, 20124949.5
January 30 – February 12, 201248.549.5
February 13-26, 20124850.5
February 27-March 11, 201250.548
March 12-April 1, 201246.553
April 2-15, 20125246.5
April 16-29, 201249.549
April 30-May 13, 201246.551
May 14-27, 201247.550
May 28-June 7, 20124851.5
June 8-24, 20125048.5
June 25 – July 8, 201247.550.5
July 9-22, 20125047
July 23-August 5, 20124751
August 13-26, 20124851.5
August 27-September 9, 201249.549
September 10-23, 201246.551
September 24 – October 7, 20124453.5
October 8-21, 201247.550
October 29 – November 11, 201248.549
November 12-25, 20124751.5
November 26-December 9, 20124850.5
January 2-13, 20134949
January 14-27, 20134851
January 28 – February 10, 20134552.5
February 11-24, 20135146.5

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, NZ First, Mana Party. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

Finding No. 4867 is taken from Computer Report No. 2373


The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.


NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)
Oct 24-Nov 6,

2011

Nov 7-18,

2011

Nov 22-24,

2011

Jan 3-15,

2012

Jan 16-29,

2012

Jan 30-Feb 12,

2012

Feb 13-26,

2012

Feb 27-Mar 11,

2012

Mar 12-Apr 1,

2012

Apr 2-15,

2012

Apr 16-29,

2012

Apr 30-May 13,

2012

%%%%%%%%%%%%
Right direction58.560.549.560.5615753.552.553.555.55551
Wrong direction27.5243128283032.53429.53132.535.5
Roy Morgan GCR#131136.5118.5132.5133127121118.5124124.5122.5115.5
Can’t say1415.519.511.511131413.51713.512.513.5
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100100

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)
May 14-27,

2012

May 28-June 7,

2012

June 8-24,

2012

June 25-July 8,

2012

July 9-22,

2012

Jul 23-Aug 5,

2012

Aug 13-26,

2012

Aug 27-Sep 9,

2012

Sep 10-23,

2012

Sep 24-Oct 7,

2012

Oct 8-21,

2012

Oct 29 – Nov 11,

2012

%%%%%%%%%%%%
Right direction49485251.5504949.55147.5444951.5
Wrong direction3837.534.53436.534.534.534.537.5383934
Roy Morgan GCR#111110.5117.5117.5113.5114.5115116.5110106110117.5
Can’t say1314.513.514.513.516.51614.515181214.5
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100100100100

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Government)
Nov 12-25,

2012

Nov 26-Dec 9,

2012

Jan 2-13,

2013

Jan 14-17,

2013

Jan 28 – Feb 10,

2013

Feb 11-24

2013

%%%%%%
Right direction48.55353.5575554
Wrong direction37.53433.530.530.532.5
Roy Morgan GCR#111119120126.5124.5121.5
Can’t say14131312.514.513.5
TOTAL100100100100100100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).



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