National Party rebounds 6%
to 46.5%; Labour down 4% to 31.5%
As New Zealand passes laws to legalise same-sex marriage
Finding No. 4890 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.: May 02, 2013
Today’s [2/5/13] New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial gain in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 6% since April 1-14, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners remains low with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 4%); Greens are 11% (down 2.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).
Despite the strong rise in support for National, if a National Election were held now this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that it would be too close to call.
However, in further good news for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 4.5pts to 120.5 with 54.5% (up 3%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 6%) increasing its lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (31.5%, down 4%) after New Zealand became the thirteenth country in the world, and the first in the Asia-Pacific, to legalise same-sex marriage. Today’s result returns National to a lead similar to the lead it held two months ago in late February — National (47.5%) cf. Labour (30.5%).
“Although National has substantially increased their vote, the low support for governing Coalition partners the Maori Party, ACT NZ and United Future mean a combined Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First coalition remains a good chance of forming Government after the next New Zealand Election — due late next year.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 877 electors from April 15-28, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:
|General Election, July 27, 2002||20.9||41.3||7||10.4||n/a||n/a||7.1||6.7||n/a||6.6|
|General Election, September 17, 2005||39.1||41.1||5.3||5.72||2.12||n/a||1.51||2.67||n/a||2.48|
|General Election, November 8, 2008||44.93||33.99||6.72||4.07||2.39||n/a||3.65||0.87||n/a||3.38|
|General Election, November 26, 2011||47.31||27.48||11.06||6.59||1.43||1.08||1.07||0.60||2.65||0.73|
|[…] January 2-13, 2013||46||31.5||12||5||2||0.5||0.5||0.5||1.5||0.5|
|January 14-27, 2013||46||31.5||13.5||5.5||1.5||0.5||0.5||^||0.5||0.5|
|January 28 - February 10, 2013||44||34.5||13.5||4||0.5||0.5||0.5||^||2||0.5|
|February 11-24, 2013||47.5||30.5||12.5||3||2.5||0.5||0.5||0.5||2||0.5|
|February 25 - March 10, 2013||43.5||32.5||13.5||5||2||^||0.5||0.5||2||0.5|
|March 11-24, 2013||44||34.5||13||3||2.5||0.5||0.5||1||1||^|
|April 1-14, 2013||40.5||35.5||13.5||5||2||0.5||0.5||0.5||1.5||0.5|
|April 15-28, 2013||46.5||31.5||11||4.5||1.5||1||0.5||0.5||2||1|
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.