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Roy Morgan Poll - Labour/ Greens Have Edge - 22 Jan 2014

Labour/ Greens (46%) start election year with edge over National (43.5%) as Kim Dotcom set to launch new ‘Internet Party’ to contest elections

• January 22 2014

• Finding No. 5389

• Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,509 electors from January 6 – 19, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (46%, up 1%) leading John Key’s National Party (43.5%, down 1.5%) in the first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll for 2014. Support for Key’s Coalition partners has slightly improved: Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party has improved to 33.5% (up 3%), while the Greens have fallen to 12.5% (down 2%), New Zealand First 4% (down 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call and depend on minor party support.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 139.5pts (up 9.5pts) with 63% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (down 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (46%, up 1%) beginning this election year with a clear lead over the governing National (43.5%, down 1.5%). The closeness of this result means minor parties will play a large role in determining who forms Government after the election.

 “If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that minor parties including New Zealand First (4%, down 1%), the Conservative Party of NZ (2.5%, up 0.5%), the Maori Party (2%, up 0.5%) and the Mana Party (0.5%, down 0.5%) will determine the shape of New Zealand’s next Government.

“In addition, Internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcom has announced his intention to start a new political party, the Internet Party to contest this year’s election. Dotcom is still facing extradition to the United States in relation to his now defunct file sharing site, Megaupload. The extradition hearing is now due to take place in July 2014 – only four months before the election.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,509 electors from January 6 – 19, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


Click for big version.


Click for big version.

• New Zealand Voting Intention Summary
• Two-Party Preferred: National Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties
• New Zealand Government Confidence: Heading in "Right" or "Wrong" direction?

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample SizePercentage Estimate
 40%-60%
1,000±3.2
1,500±2.5

ENDS

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