Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Majority think National will win election, prefer Labour

7 April 2014
Media release
Horizon Research

Majority think National will lead after election but would prefer Labour

66.5% of New Zealand voters think National will lead a coalition government if one is needed after the September 20 general election.

However, 51.5% would prefer Labour to lead a coalition if there is one.

An independent nationwide survey by Horizon Research of 2,665 people aged 18+ between March 20 and April 4, 2014, finds those who voted National at the 2011 general election are highly confident: 92.1% of them think it will lead a coalition.

66.5% of Labour voters and 56.9% of NZ First voters think Labour will lead. However, 56.2% of Mana voters think National will lead.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead a coalition if there is one, the outcome is finely balanced with Labour favoured by 51.5% and National 48.5%.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

The survey starkly illustrates the difference between perceptions over which party might win and what electors would prefer, Horizon’s Manager, Grant McInman says.

The results also reflect other polling which shows the election result on a knife edge, with New Zealand First capturing more than 5% support and likely to decide which main party may form a government.


If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party do you think will lead it?

A.Labour

33.5%
B.National

66.5%

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?

A.Labour

51.5%
B.National

48.5%

Horizon says 72.2% of respondents say they are 100% likely to vote, at this stage indicating turnout similar to that at the 2011 general election. Some 73% of the 18+ population voted at the 2011 general election. 93.5% of survey respondents said they were registered to vote.

Respondents are members of the national HorizonPoll panel, recruited to represent the population 18+ at the last census. The survey is weighted by age, ethnicity, education, personal income, gender and the party respondents voted for at the 2011 election to ensure a representative sample. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

PARLIAMENT TODAY:

Transport Report: LGNZ Calls For Proactive Approach To Mobilise Regions

LGNZ has today released Mobilising the Regions, its major transport study, which highlights the economic and social impact of strategic transport decisions nationally and in the regions, and the direct link between regional development, national prosperity, social well-being and cohesiveness. More>>

ALSO:

Transport: New Rules Bring Double-Deckers To Our Cities

New rules that allow buses, including double-deckers, to carry more people will ramp up the public transport offering in our cities, Transport Minister Simon Bridges and Associate Transport Minister Craig Foss say. More>>

ALSO:

Cycling:


Images & Video: Four Alternative Flags For Referendum

Flag Consideration Panel chair, Professor John Burrows, said the Panel’s decision had been guided first and foremost by the results of its engagement programme across a range of communities where thousands of Kiwis shared what was special about New Zealand, as well as the Panel’s own selection criteria. More>>

ALSO:

Labour: New Figures Show Speculators Rampant

New figures released by the Reserve Bank show there’s been an explosion in mortgage lending with most of the growth going to property investors, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. More>>

ALSO:

False Official Information Response: English's Apology Accepted

Finance Minister Bill English is being thanked for his apology to New Zealand First Leader and Member of Parliament for Northland Rt Hon Winston Peters... Mr English says his staff and the Treasury have searched again, and they found the document that they denied having. More>>

ALSO:

Midwives On Pay Equity: Historic Bill Of Rights Case For High Court

“We have been left with no choice.” That from Karen Guilliland, the Chief Executive of the New Zealand College of Midwives, as the organisation prepares to file a pay parity discrimination case on the basis of gender under the NZ Bill of Rights Act in the High Court. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news