Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Majority think National will win election, prefer Labour

7 April 2014
Media release
Horizon Research

Majority think National will lead after election but would prefer Labour

66.5% of New Zealand voters think National will lead a coalition government if one is needed after the September 20 general election.

However, 51.5% would prefer Labour to lead a coalition if there is one.

An independent nationwide survey by Horizon Research of 2,665 people aged 18+ between March 20 and April 4, 2014, finds those who voted National at the 2011 general election are highly confident: 92.1% of them think it will lead a coalition.

66.5% of Labour voters and 56.9% of NZ First voters think Labour will lead. However, 56.2% of Mana voters think National will lead.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead a coalition if there is one, the outcome is finely balanced with Labour favoured by 51.5% and National 48.5%.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

The survey starkly illustrates the difference between perceptions over which party might win and what electors would prefer, Horizon’s Manager, Grant McInman says.

The results also reflect other polling which shows the election result on a knife edge, with New Zealand First capturing more than 5% support and likely to decide which main party may form a government.


If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party do you think will lead it?

A.Labour

33.5%
B.National

66.5%

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?

A.Labour

51.5%
B.National

48.5%

Horizon says 72.2% of respondents say they are 100% likely to vote, at this stage indicating turnout similar to that at the 2011 general election. Some 73% of the 18+ population voted at the 2011 general election. 93.5% of survey respondents said they were registered to vote.

Respondents are members of the national HorizonPoll panel, recruited to represent the population 18+ at the last census. The survey is weighted by age, ethnicity, education, personal income, gender and the party respondents voted for at the 2011 election to ensure a representative sample. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

Departure Speech: Governor-General’s State Farewell Luncheon

"...Unfortunately I was unable to get to the Antarctic, the Chatham Islands and the Kermadecs. A dicky heart thwarted our travel to the Antarctic; and even though I volunteered to parachute into the Kermadecs to join the Young Blake expedition, time, commitments and officials frustrated my plans to visit the Kermadecs and Chathams." More>>

ALSO:

New Research: Most Homeless People Working Or Studying

“The cost of housing has been rising without corresponding increases in income, whilst the number of state houses per capita has been in decline. Many low-income people are missing out on housing, whether we recognise them as ‘homeless’ or not. More>>

ALSO:

Post-Traynor: New Offender Info Sharing Plan

“This Bill delivers on that step-change by moving away from name-based records held by individual agencies to a shared, anchor identity based on unalterable information, such as fingerprints and facial recognition. It also gives agencies access to the drivers’ licence photo database and birth, death and marriages information." More>>

  • NZ Law Foundation - New $2M fund for research on information challenges
  • Littoral: New Ship To Deliver Enhanced Naval Capability

    Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee says the Government has approved a Ministry of Defence and New Zealand Defence Force recommendation to request tenders for a new naval ship to support littoral operations. More>>

    July:

    After King's Labour Snub: Māori Party And Kiingitanga To Work Together

    Māori Party Co-leaders Te Ururoa Flavell and Marama Fox met with Kiingitanga representatives in Wellington yesterday to discuss working together on key issues for the betterment of Māori. More>>

    ALSO:

    Waitangi Claim On Rehabilitation: The 'Justus' System For Māori Not Good Enough

    Closing statements at the Waitangi Tribunal case against Corrections called for immediate steps and a comprehensive review to address the high rate of Māori reoffending. More>>

    ALSO:

    Advice: PM Sets Rules For Ministers' Treatment Of Public Servants

    Prime Minister John Key has laid down the law about the way ministers and public servants should interact, saying ministers may not always like the advice they receive, but they must listen to it carefully, respectfully and professionally. More>>

    Gordon Campbell: On The Funding Changes In Special Needs Education, And Uber

    The plan to strip out the educational support for older “special needs” children in order to meet the existing shortfall in funding for special needs in early childhood education is so miserly and relentlessly stupid as to defy belief… More>>

    SPECIAL EDUCATION (& More):

    Online Learning Plans:

    Get More From Scoop

     

    LATEST HEADLINES

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Politics
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news