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Majority think National will win election, prefer Labour

7 April 2014
Media release
Horizon Research

Majority think National will lead after election but would prefer Labour

66.5% of New Zealand voters think National will lead a coalition government if one is needed after the September 20 general election.

However, 51.5% would prefer Labour to lead a coalition if there is one.

An independent nationwide survey by Horizon Research of 2,665 people aged 18+ between March 20 and April 4, 2014, finds those who voted National at the 2011 general election are highly confident: 92.1% of them think it will lead a coalition.

66.5% of Labour voters and 56.9% of NZ First voters think Labour will lead. However, 56.2% of Mana voters think National will lead.

When asked which main party they would prefer to lead a coalition if there is one, the outcome is finely balanced with Labour favoured by 51.5% and National 48.5%.

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

The survey starkly illustrates the difference between perceptions over which party might win and what electors would prefer, Horizon’s Manager, Grant McInman says.

The results also reflect other polling which shows the election result on a knife edge, with New Zealand First capturing more than 5% support and likely to decide which main party may form a government.


If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party do you think will lead it?

A.Labour

33.5%
B.National

66.5%

If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?

A.Labour

51.5%
B.National

48.5%

Horizon says 72.2% of respondents say they are 100% likely to vote, at this stage indicating turnout similar to that at the 2011 general election. Some 73% of the 18+ population voted at the 2011 general election. 93.5% of survey respondents said they were registered to vote.

Respondents are members of the national HorizonPoll panel, recruited to represent the population 18+ at the last census. The survey is weighted by age, ethnicity, education, personal income, gender and the party respondents voted for at the 2011 election to ensure a representative sample. At a 95% confidence level the maximum margin of error is +/- 1.9%.

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