Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


Another hike delivered, with more to come

RBNZ Observer Update: Another hike delivered, with more to come

The RBNZ increased its cash rate by +25bp to 3.00% today, as expected. The economy is picking up strongly and the RBNZ has continued on a path to return rates to more normal levels, to keep inflation contained. The central bank kept the prospect of further rate hikes at coming meetings open, however, the statement expressed increased concern over the high NZD. Overall, with demand continuing to rise strongly, we expect the central bank to hike rates further in 2014, with a 25bp increase at the June meeting likely. However, a strengthening exchange rate may mean slightly fewer hikes than the market is currently pricing.

Facts
- The RBNZ increased its cash rate by 25bp to 3.00%, as expected by all 15 surveyed analysts (including HSBC).

- On the outlook for policy, the RBNZ noted ‘the speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure’.

- On the economy, the RBNZ stated ‘New Zealand’s economic expansion has considerable momentum’.

- On the NZD, the RBNZ noted that ‘the Bank does not believe the current level of the exchange rate is sustainable’.

Implications
The RBNZ continued on a path of returning interest rates to more normal levels, by raising its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%. The New Zealand economy continues to pick up strongly, supported by post-earthquake reconstruction, rising house prices, increased consumer spending and strong migrant inflows. With demand rising and the economy already at capacity, the RBNZ needs to move gradually away from current loose monetary settings to keep inflation in check.

Today’s statement from the central bank suggested that this process is likely to continue at upcoming meetings. The central bank noted ‘the speed and extent to which the OCR will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure’. With the economy on track to post one of the strongest growth rates in the OECD this year, we expect the central bank to follow up with a further 25bp hike at the June meeting.

However, a couple of factors may hold back the extent of further rate hikes in 2014 (the market is currently pricing another 60bps before year-end). First, the RBNZ remain concerned about the high NZD, explicitly noting its strength in today's policy statement. The NZD TWI is now +2.5% above their March projections. Second, the pace of decline in dairy prices is also likely to have surprised the central bank. In March, RBNZ projections implied a 3.75% cash rate by year-end. We expect the stronger NZD and drop in export prices to limit the increase to 3.50%.

Bottom line
The RBNZ increased its cash rate to 3.00%, as expected.

With demand continuing to pick-up strongly in New Zealand, we expect further hikes in 2014 with a 25bp increase at the June meeting likely.

However, the elevated exchange rate and the recent fall in export prices may mean slightly fewer hikes this year than the market is currently pricing.

http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1404/HSBC_Research_RBNZ_Observer_Update__Another_hike_delivered_with_more_to_come_2014.04.24.pdf.zip
Ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Parliament Kicks Off: Carter Re-Elected Speaker

The 51st Parliament held its commission opening today with MPs sworn in and David Carter elected Speaker.

The day began at 11am with the three Royal Commissioners – the Chief Justice, the Court of Appeal President, and the Chief High Court Judge – declaring the new Parliament open.

After the Commissioners left the Chamber the swearing in of MPs took place in alphabetical order. Unlike some previous openings all MPs managed to swear on the bible or affirm their oath without any hiccups... More>>

 

Labour: Review Team Named, Leadership Campaign Starts

Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban.

ALSO:


Roy Morgan Poll: National Slips, Labour Hits Lows

The first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll since the NZ Election shows National 43.5% (down 3.54% since the September 20 Election). This isn’t unusual, National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories... However, support for the main opposition Labour Party has crashed to 22.5% (down 2.63% and the lowest support for Labour since the 1914 NZ Election as United Labour). More>>

ALSO:

In On First Round: New Zealand Wins Security Council Seat

Prime Minister John Key has welcomed New Zealand securing a place on the United Nations Security Council for the 2015-16 term. More>>

ALSO:

TPP Leak: Intellectual Property Text Confirms Risk - Jane Kelsey

The US is continuing its assault on generic medicines through numerous proposed changes to patent laws. ‘These are bound to impact on Pharmac if they are accepted’, according to Professor Kelsey... Copyright is another area of ongoing sensitivity... More>>

ALSO:

RMA: Smith Plans Reform To Ease Urban Development

Newly appointed Environment Minister Nick Smith has announced Resource Management Act reform to foster urban development, where high land prices and expensive resource consents are blocking efforts to provide affordable housing. More>>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On New Zealand getting involved (again) in other people's wars

Apparently, the Key government is still pondering how New Zealand will contribute to the fight against Islamic State. Long may it ponder, given the lack of consensus among our allies as to how to fight IS, where to fight it (Syria, Iraq, or both?) and with whose ground troops, pray tell? More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On child poverty, and David Shearer’s latest outburst

The politicisation of (a) the public service and (b) the operations of the Official Information Act have been highlighted by the policy advice package on child poverty that RNZ’s resolute political editor Brent Edwards has finally prised out of the Ministry of Social Development. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On the government’s review of security laws

So the Key government is about to launch a four week review of the ability of our existing legislation to deal with “suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters, and other violent extremists.”

According to its terms of reference, the review will consider whether the SIS, GCSB and Police are sufficiently able right now to (a) investigate and monitor suspected and returning foreign terrorist fighters… More>>

ALSO:

Labour Davids: Lisa Owen Interviews David Shearer

David Shearer still mulling whether to stand for Labour leadership but says his family doesn’t think it’s a good idea. Declares that it will be “incredibly divisive” for the Labour caucus if David Cunliffe returns to the role of leader. More>>

ALSO:

Taser Use & False Evidence: Timaru Officers "Failed To Follow Good Policing Practice"

The Authority found that even if Mr Reuben’s contact with the officer was deliberate it amounted to only a minor assault. While it found the use of the OC spray was justified, the use of the Taser was not a proportionate response... More>>

ALSO:

Little Surprise: Andrew Little To Contest Labour Leadership

I have decided to contest the Labour Party leadership. There are three immediate issues to deal with: creating greater cohesion across the caucus, rebuilding the relationship between caucus and the Party and, most importantly getting the process under way to listen to the voters who have abandoned us... More>>

ALSO:

Two Fewer Votes In Recount: "Positive Result" - Harawira

When I applied for a recount of the votes from the Tai Tokerau election, I made it clear that this application was not aimed at overturning the election result, but ensuring that all votes cast by Maori were treated with due respect, regardless of whether those votes are for Labour, Maori Party or MANA. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news