Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


The Letter: 26 May 2014

The Letter

26 May 2014

What a difference a budget makes

ACT has the best polling. The party did a 2000 nationwide online survey of 2000 likely voters 5-12 May before the Budget 15 May. Comparing ACT’s poll with the TVNZ One poll yesterday it shows National got a big bounce out of the Budget. The spectacular failure of the opposition to deliver any dirt on Judith Collins has also resulted in a blow back on NZ1st, Labour and the Greens.

Right/Center voters unhappy

National producing Labour-lite policies may be electorally successful but ACT’s poll shows Right/center voters are not happy. They know the government is wasting their money in health, education and welfare.

Most popular Right/Center politician

It is Jamie Whyte. Public polls ask the wrong questions. “Who do you want to be PM?” biases the result to the existing PM. Political parties ask a much better question “Do you have a favourable/unfavourable opinion of…” John Key is the most popular in the public polls but right/center voters (18% of the electorate) have an unfavourable view of Key, favourable 39% /unfavourable 52%. Key is competing with David Cunliffe and just 13% of right/center voters have a favourable view of Cunliffe. Jamie Whyte is the most popular leader with the right/center voters with 45% favourable to 22% unfavourable.

We were incredulous too

We said to our pollster “John Key is the most popular PM in the history of polling. Are you sure Jamie Whyte is more popular?” Gene Ulm checked the results. “It is correct. If we had realized Jamie Whyte after only 70 days as leader was so well known we would have asked more questions about him”. As an aside the poll shows why John Key is so electable. If you lead a major party what matters is your cross party appeal. When many of your opponent’s supporters prefer you to their own leader you are hard to beat. When you lead a third party then it is vital your supporters like you. It is why NZ1ST gets votes. ACT was not polling in depth Green supporters but the results show the Greens have a problem. Green voters are gaining an unfavourable view of Russell “Aussie” Norman. Not all Aussie reds are drinkable.

Good guys finish last

But they start first. ACT has picked the right leader. If voters have an unfavourable impression, as they do of David Cunliffe, then he is the wrong person to be carrying the message. (The right message carrier for Labour was Shane Jones. Watch the hidden microphone pick up Hone telling Shane to join NZ1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff_T6IGfjiA). If voters have a favourable impression of the message carrier as they do of Jamie Whyte then they will listen to the message.

ACT is on one percent

Actually that is good news. It shows ACT’s poll is accurate. In this massive survey of voters’ attitudes the voters are told what ACT’s policies are. At the end of the survey voters are asked again how they are voting. It is duplicates what happens in an election campaign. In the post survey question 11% say they are considering voting ACT. That is 12 MPs.

Epsom is crucial

Many of the 11 percent are waiting to see if ACT will win Epsom. ACT is conducting a telephone survey of the whole Epsom electorate. David Seymour is now narrowly in first place. But when National voters are asked if they will vote tactically to ensure John Key is PM a further 40% say they will vote ACT. Even if Labour voters vote tactically they cannot stop David Seymour from winning. This is a better position at this stage than Rodney Hide was polling when he won. David has momentum. ACT will win Epsom.

Oravida is a non-issue

ACT’s big poll was taken at the height of the “cash for access” scandal. It shows the issue has not changed anyone’s vote. The Opposition has wasted a month of parliamentary time. Promising a king hit and delivering hot air has hurt the Opposition’s credibility. Calling your opponent a paedophile has shocked voters. Even the Opposition’s cheer leaders in talk back radio do not want to go down that route.

Wrong issue

We always thought that the Opposition was mistaken in picking election funding. It reminds voters that the Auditor–General said Labour misappropriated hundreds of thousands of dollars to fund their elections. It reminds voters of the Owen Glenn affair. Why was Russell Norman visiting the Dotcom mansion? It also reminds voters that over the years National has handled election donations far better than any other party.

Here are the three top issues – reform, reform, reform.

A good opposition would be pointing out that in six years National has not reformed any major area government spending. The Right/Center has noticed. As ACT puts out its new ideas to reform education, health and social welfare this poll says ACT will rise in the polls.

License to burgle

The police budget has been frozen for the fifth consecutive year and Government had no immediate plan to increase it again before 2018. National is really out of touch on crime. According to the Treasury there are approximately 120,000 burglaries a year. What the government is saying is that 480,000 burglaries over the next four years are OK. Statistically that is the equivalent of every house in Auckland being burgled. Only ACT says this epidemic of burglary by professional burglars is unacceptable. Cutting the Police budget is not the way to stop it. Jamie Whyte has done an excellent U-tube clip that not only puts ACT’s 3 strikes for burglary but also shows why he is the most popular Right/Center politician. See for yourself www.act.org.nz

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 

PARLIAMENT TODAY:

  • Week in Parliament 22-05-15
  • Saturday Sitting
  • House Rises At Midnight
  • Telco Levy Bill Passes
  • Telco Levy Bill Completes First Reading
  • Social Housing Bill Passes Under Urgency

  • TPPA: University Of Auckland Warns Of Negative TPP Impact

    The University of Auckland May 20, 2015 University of Auckland Warns of Negative TPP Impact With the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiation drawing to a close, the University of Auckland has expressed serious concerns about its potential implications. ... More>>

    NZ Flag: Flag Referendum Gets Hit Hard In New Poll

    The latest Campbell Live text poll confirms it is time for the Prime Minister to listen to the public and shelve his flag referendum, says the New Zealand First Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters. More>>

    Gordon Campbell: The Government’s Belated Moves On Property Speculation

    Is it a property tax on capital gains or a capital gains tax on property? The Jesuitical distinctions in the government’s spin about its latest moves on property speculators are all about whether the government can claim that it jumped, or confess that it ... More>>

    Grant Robertson:
    Key Can’t Just Be Prime Minister For Parnell

    John Key must show New Zealanders in next week’s Budget that he is more than the Prime Minister for Parnell, and is also the Prime Minister for Pine Hill, Putararu and Palmerston North, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. In a ... More>>

    Labour Party: More Regional Jobs Go In Corrections Reshape

    News that 194 Corrections staff are to lose their jobs will have ramifications not only for them and their families but for the wider community, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. Prison units at Waikeria, Tongariro and Rimutaka ... More>>

    ALSO:

  • NZ First - Prison Job Losses to Send Money Offshore
  • TPPA: ‘Team Obama’ Regroups On Fast Track, Still Not Deliverable

    ‘After yesterday’s stinging and unexpected defeat for the Obama administration’s attempt to advance Fast Track legislation in the US Senate, Senate leaders have worked up a compromise they think will get them past this blockage’, according to Auckland ... More>>

    NZ Government: 5,500 More Doctors And Nurses In Our Hospitals

    Health Minister Jonathan Coleman says a record number of doctors and nurses are working in District Health Boards across the country. More>>

    Controller and Auditor General: Katherine Rich Conflict of Interest Decision

    We are writing to you about a matter that has been raised with us by members of the public. More>>

    ALSO:


    Budget 2015: Andrew Little On The 2015 Budget

    Speaking to the Chamber of Commerce, the Labour opposition leader attacked the government’s approach to economic issues facing New Zealand. He said they have been “more than reckless in their complacency” and “the next week’s budget will do nothing ... More>>

    Defence Force: NZDF Building Partner Capacity Mission Personnel In Iraq

    NZDF Building Partner Capacity Mission Personnel in Iraq The New Zealand Defence Force Building Partner Capacity training mission contingent is in place at Taji Military Complex in Iraq. The Chief of Defence Force Lieutenant General Tim Keating says the ... More>>

    PM Press Conference: ACC Levy Cuts Announced

    In a press conference this afternoon in Wellington, ACC Minister Nikki Kaye proposed $500 million worth of ACC levy cuts. More>>

    Quakes: New Process For Red Zone Crown Offers

    Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has announced a process to give everyone a say on the Crown offers to owners of vacant, commercial/industrial and uninsured properties in the Residential Red Zone. More>>

    ALSO:

    Gordon Campbell: On The Battle Obama Is Waging Over The TPP

    For the past two and a half years, this column has been arguing that the fate of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal will hinge on whether US President Barack Obama can win Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from Congress... Last week, the White House finally, finally unveiled a draft TPA Bill. More>>

    ALSO:


    Gordon Campbell: On lessons for Labour from the UK election
    If the polls were right – and the pollsters kept telling us how accurate they’d been in 2010, and even Nate Silver was getting the same results – there seemed no way that the British Labour Party could lose last Thursday’s British election. With Labour predicted to win around 270 seats and the Scottish National Party batting around 55-60 seats, Labour seemed to be home free. But…as we now know, things didn’t turn out that way. Labour ended up with 232 seats and the Conservatives swept back to power with an outright majority, after winning only a little more than a third ( 36.9%) of the votes cast.MORE >>
    Also.

  • NZ PM John Key - PM congratulates David Cameron after UK election
  • The Nation IV Transcript - Hack Attack author Nick Davies
  • Get More From Scoop

     

    LATEST HEADLINES

     
     
     
     
     
    More RSS  RSS
     
     
     
     
    Politics
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news