Thursday is D-Day
Thursday is
D-Day
The judge has
reserved his decision in the case against John Banks to
Thursday. Whatever is the decision, the verdict will impact
the election. For John Banks a guilty verdict would be a
tragic end to a distinguished career. His seat would be
declared vacant. Without John Banks’ vote National will
find parliament difficult. The Opposition will be exultant.
Trevor Mallard laid the Police complaint. Dotcom will have
had his revenge. TV3 gave an indication of how they will
cover a guilty verdict. While ACT’s polling does not
record the case as being a factor it must be. After John
resigned as Leader, ACT fell to zero in public polls.
What if John Banks is found not
guilty?
The Letter who
has known John Banks for 30 years has never believed he
would knowingly fill in a false return. Besides, there was
no need to do so, a motive was missing. A not guilty verdict
will vindicate John. The impact on the seat of Epsom will
be immediate. The government will be secure. The
Opposition will be seen to have wasted a huge amount of time
and money. Dotcom’s credibility will take a big blow. A
number of commentators who were so sure John Banks was
guilty will realise they have defamed him. A not guilty
finding has to be good for ACT.
John Banks
is not guilty
The media
case against John Banks was built around a lunch at the
Dotcom mansion, where Dotcom claimed, giving great detail,
that donations were discussed. John Banks said he could not
remember the lunch, let alone the conversation. “How
could you forget a lunch at the Dotcom mansion?” said
talk back radio, “he must be guilty”. The
evidence given in the trial shows no lunch on the date
Dotcom claimed occurred. It is a fabrication. John Banks
on that day was meeting with a South Auckland Community
Police Officer. Detail after detail has turned out under
cross examination to be false. Dotcom’s accountant, who
claimed he had flown to Queenstown to deposit the cheques,
suddenly could not remember anything when the bank record
showed the cheques were actually banked at the local Albany
branch, some 1,550 kilometres away. John Banks’ QC has
told the court that John is the victim of a conspiracy. The
person who needs to worry about the verdict is the
German.
Internet-Mana
Party
How could Laila
Harre, perhaps the most extreme left wing MP ever to be a
minister, lead a party founded by a German millionaire, who,
according to the FBI, is the biggest criminal in New
Zealand’s history? Laila was a member of the Harry
Holland brigade that travelled to Nicaragua to assist the
Sandinistas. Prominent in the Brigade were leading members
of the Socialist Action, a Trotskyist communist party.
Laila Harre is literally a fellow traveller. The left hate
the Trotskyists because Leon Trotsky urged his followers to
disguise their beliefs and join other parties and take them
over. Now does it make sense?
How will
Internet-Mana
poll?
Possibly quite well.
Money by itself does not win elections but it helps. In
Europe there are a number of parliaments, Italy and Iceland,
where there are MPs representing the Pirate Parties, a
plague on everything parties. In New Zealand the “plague
on everyone” party is founded by a real pirate. Having a
seat means all votes will count. On the record of
McGillicuddy Serious, the party could easily elect three
MPs. Enough to hold the balance. The Letter has run into
some young Maori who think when Dotcom talks about Internet
freedom he means free Internet which they think is cool. We
doubt the party will be any more successful than Mana at
attracting non-voters. The danger is that the wasted vote on
the left will count and give the left an extra seat,
something that in 2008 and 2011 would have ensured Labour
remained in power. NZ voters tend to forget their history
very quickly, unfortunately.
Who will
lose?
It is The Letter’s
experience that attempts to rort the electoral system
invariably rebound. Right leaning voters may well decide to
give more to counteract Mr Dotcom’s $3 million. Dotcom
may find himself otherwise detained, in which case we
predict Hone and Laila will need to cash the cheque
promptly. Pressure is now on David Cunliffe to declare
whether he will do an electoral deal with a party funded by
Dotcom. Is a government relying on the Internet-Mana party
credible? If the Judge rules that the evidence given
against John Banks was false, then Hone might find the deal
he has done hurts in his seat. Thursday’s court decision
is going to be important, and not just for John.
Lastest poll in
Epsom
Analysis, reported in
The Letter, shows that most of the increase in the 2011
non-vote was from the right. Many ACT supporters who
thought ACT was going to lose Epsom stayed at home. So Epsom
is vital. ACT has now done a commercial professional poll
of 300 voters in Epsom. It confirms the telephone and door
canvass results: when the National vote splitters are added
to the ACT vote, David Seymour is winning Epsom. The fight
goes on.
Big tax on
everything
The Greens
proposed carbon tax is a big tax on everything. They have
admitted what ACT has always said, the Emissions Trading
Scheme does not work. Jamie Whyte has pointed out the Greens
proposal will not just wreck the New Zealand economy, it
will add to global warming. NZ dairying even after
transport costs causes less global warming than European
dairy. Milk production will move from carbon-taxed New
Zealand to no carbon-taxed Europe. While we expect economic
nonsense from the Greens, it is a worry that David Cunliffe
has not ruled this out. See www.act.org.nz
ends