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The Letter: Key Gives Nod for Seymour in Epsom

The Letter: Key Gives Nod for Seymour in Epsom

This afternoon the PM acknowledged the importance of Epsom to National’s re-election prospects when said he wanted National’s supporters in Epsom to vote for ACT’S David Seymour. We always thought David could win Epsom, for which he has been campaigning door to door (9,000 doors so far) since February, but with this support from the PM he is certain to be the next MP for Epsom.


Panic in Labour List

Because of the way MMP works Labour is facing losing all its list MPs while still wining back some constituency seats.

MMP rules of thumb

As much of the electorate does not understand MMP the Labour and National poll vote is overstated by about 5%. But in the marginal seats where the electorate realises there is a real contest the Labour and National vote increases.

Labour could win 3 to 4 extra constituency seats

Labour should win: Christchurch Central; the seat was Labour’s safest. Waimakariri: Kate Wilkinson is retiring and Clayton Gosgrove contesting. Napier; where popular Chris Tremain is retiring and Stuart Nash is Labour’s candidate. We would add Mangakiekie where the boundary changes favour Labour except the Labour candidate Carol Beaumont is a proven vote loser. So as not to help Labour, ACT will not stand candidates in these marginal seats.

No Labour list MPs

On present polling number seven on the Labour list Kelvin Davies misses out. For every constituency Labour wins a list member is ejected. If Labour wins 3 seats, out goes Moana Macky, Maryan Street and Andrew Little. If Beaumont wins, Sue Moroney is out. (Spot the difference). If Labour’s vote falls just another 2% during the campaign, highly likely then that Jacinda Arden and David Parker are out.

Policy Wonks

There has been a bit of a reaction to our statement we think it was a mistake for ACT to have gone into government in the past. Whale Oil points out that by being in government ACT has achieved Partnership Schools which have been a brilliant success. But Partnership Schools came from the Confidence Agreement – not by not by taking ministerial offices. ACT will again enter in a Confidence Agreement to deliver stable centre/right government. National does not lack MPs who will make competent Ministers. What National lacks are fresh new ideas. That is what ACT will deliver.

Best new idea

What if there is a policy that will increase New Zealand’s GDP growth sustainably by a third, significantly reduce unemployment and lift real wages? What if we can pay for it by getting rid of the useless greenhouse emissions trading scheme and corporate welfare? This policy is backed by many of the world’s leading economists; Larry Summers, former US Secretary of the Treasury and Vernon Smith, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and even President Obama. Jamie Whyte will be announcing the new policy this week – keep an eye out for it.

Green Labour

Buried in Labour’s “pro wood” policies is a proposal that companies needing to buy offsetting carbon credits must purchase 50% of their carbon credits from New Zealand forestry owners. It is called global warming for a reason. A New Zealand carbon credit is no better for the environment. Labour admits New Zealand forestry owners will increase the price of ETAs but then say “COST: This measure will be revenue-creating rather than a net expenditure”. That is like saying a tax increase has no cost because it raises government money!

Some Goss

Where does this nonsense come from? The transfer of the Central North Island forests to iwi has made Maori the nation’s biggest forest owners. A new generation of Maori leaders’ whole work experience has been that wealth comes from the government. How to increase the value of their forests? Get the government to change the rules to force the country to use wood. Iwi have lobbied Shane Jones who has been the driver of this potentially multi-million dollar gravy train.

Forced Consumption

Jamie Whyte put the issue rather well in his daily blog.
“Yesterday my 10-year-old told me she had a brilliant idea to boost economic growth. She had learnt at school that much of the money earned in New Zealand comes from the food industry. So, she figured, if the government just forced people to buy more food, then even more money would be made from food and we would all be richer. Only joking. My daughter isn’t that stupid. But apparently David Cunliffe is.
In a recent speech to ForestWood 2014, a gathering of the forestry industry, he began by observing that forestry is a big part of the New Zealand economy. He then claimed that he could make it an even greater source of wealth to New Zealanders by forcing us to buy more wood. He would do this by using taxpayers’ money to build government offices and 100,000 “affordable homes” out of wood.
Many of the assembled wood growers must have been thrilled. How delightful to hear a politician’s plan to force people to buy your products! But I hope that at least a few of them were disgusted. Mr Cunliffe’s policies are not merely a path to national economic decline. They appeal to immoral and anti-social urges: vote for me and I will prey on others for your benefit.
Benjamin Franklin said that democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Mr Cunliffe should be ashamed of confirming this cynical view of his job.”

Fairfax media thinks ACT will do well

The Dominion last week ran a beat up that John Thompson, the president of ACT, has a conflict of interest because he is a Kiwi fruit exporter who supports the opening of the export market. The story only makes sense if you believe ACT will hold the balance of power. Actually it still does not make sense. The President of the Labour Party is often a trade unionist. Labour was founded by trade unions to promote their interests. The Fairfax papers have never claimed Labour having a trade unionist as their president is a conflict of interest. Someone needs to tell the Dominion that ACT is a free market party.

Govern Alone?

Maybe the Fairfax media is right that ACT will do exceptionally well. In the Herald poll ACT has gone from zero to .8%. As a percentage increase that is an infinite increase. Projected forward at that rate of increase ACT could govern alone. That statement is no sillier than the commentary the Herald has run on its poll. We are not trumpeting ACT’s spectacular rise because the margin for error in the poll is 3.5%. so ACT might already be on 3%.


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