ACT Proposes to increase GDP growth by One Third
ACT Proposes to increase GDP growth by One Third
Media Release
Sunday 3 August
ACT
Leader Dr Jamie Whyte
This morning I am releasing
ACT's proposal and policy to increase GDP growth by a
third.
The main points are:
* 12.5% Company tax
rate
* Increased investment, jobs and growth
* Higher
wages
The policy is fully costed and supported by
some of the world's leading economists
We can achieve
this by cutting the Company tax rate to 12.5% which will
increase investment, jobs and GDP growth by a third.
Overseas research shows reducing the company tax rate
results in higher real wages.
ACT proposes to fund the
company tax reduction by getting rid of "corporate welfare"
which is just crony capitalism and politicians picking
winners.
No single policy proposed by any party other
than ACT will increase jobs, growth and wealth.
I am
releasing ACT's detailed costings showing how a 12.5%
Company tax rate is affordable and the international
research that supports reducing company taxes to increase
growth, jobs and real wages.
The full speech follows:
Speech to the ACT Candidate’s Meeting,
Auckland, ACT Party Office, 27 Gillies Ave,
Newmarket
A Policy for Economic Growth and
Prosperity: Cutting the Company Tax
Dr Jamie Whyte, ACT
Party Leader
2 August 2014
Few practical problems
will not dissolve in a sufficiently strong solution of
wealth. In rich countries the environment is cleaner, people
are healthier, children are happier.
Policies aimed at
“improving society” while making us poorer are a folly
for self-indulgent political poseurs.
The beef of any
party’s agenda must be its economic policy. The policy
must be aimed at increasing wealth; and it must be based on
sound economic reasoning.
Today I am announcing
another important element in ACT’s economic policy. This
policy will increase investment, grow the economy, create
jobs and lift wages.
* * * * *
Six years
ago, the two major parties shared the goal of catching up
with Australia’s standard of living, measured by GDP per
person. Clark’s Labour government had promised to achieve
parity with Australia, and John Key was also promising that
his incoming National government would achieve
parity.
Fast-forward to this election and the two old
parties have dropped all reference to the goal of economic
parity with Australia.
It is not hard to see why. Under
Labour and then National governments, the gulf between New
Zealand and Australian standards of living has grown. In
1999, GDP per person was 25% higher in Australia than in New
Zealand. Today it is 65% higher.[1]
This increased gap is not
surprising. Despite their stated goals, neither party in
office has made any real attempt to implement policies that
would close the gap. Both the big parties and commentators
seem to have concluded the task is now impossible.
It is
worth reflecting on why closing the gap was seen as vital.
Robert Muldoon said that migration from New Zealand to
Australia raised the average IQs of both countries. It’s a
good joke but it’s only half right. Migration to Australia
raises the average IQ of Australians but lowers ours.
Because it is not, as Muldoon was suggesting, our dolts who
move to Australia. It is often our most talented and
ambitious who go. The Australian economy benefits and ours
suffers.
The recent reduction in New Zealanders leaving,
and rise in the numbers returning, has made some conclude
this is no longer an issue. They are wrong. This current
reversal is due to the calamitous policies pursued by the
Rudd-Gillard Labor government and the downturn it has caused
in Australia. Tony Abbott’s new Liberal government is
trying to sort out the mess and it cannot be long before
Australia is moving ahead again.
At the same time, New
Zealand’s economic growth is being goosed by the
Christchurch rebuild and the billions of re-insurance
dollars flowing into the country. These are not sustainable
sources of growth. It is all too likely that, within five
years, we will return to the familiar pattern of the
Australian economy growing faster than ours and skilled New
Zealanders moving there in search of a higher standard of
living.
What can be done? How can policy be changed to
increase New Zealand’s long-run economic growth
rate?
Labour and its left wing allies are suggesting that
we can simply legislate higher earnings. Labour seeks a
minimum wage $16.50 an hour. Mana-Internet want it to be
$18.80.
Alas, wages depend on worker productivity, not on
the declarations of politicians. Set the minimum wage above
the value of workers to employers and you condemn them to
unemployment. That is why minimum wages cause especially
high rates of unemployment among those with little skill or
experience – most obviously, among the young.
The other
economic policy being advocated by all the other parties is
a return to Muldoonism: that is, to economic planning and
picking winners. National has a target to double
agricultural sector exports by 2025; Labour thinks more
forestry will make us richer; the Greens fancy non-fossil
energy; New Zealand First think exports are the answer; and
the Internet-Mana party thinks it’s the internet.
They
can’t all be right. But they can all be wrong.
These
policies will help enrich some crony capitalists on the
receiving end of politicians’ subsidies and regulatory
favours. But the overall effect will be to reduce growth and
further increase the gap between New Zealand and
Australia.
ACT rejects Muldoonism. Wealth is not created
by the edicts of politicians and bureaucrats. It is created
by the enterprise of workers and entrepreneurs seeking to
advance their own interests through voluntary
trade.
Today I am announcing an important part of our
economic policy. No single policy proposal from any party in
this election can do more to increase economic growth,
create jobs and lift wages.
* * * * *
Taxation has a huge effect on the economy. It does not
just shift money from taxpayers to the government, and then
to those who the government spends it on. Taxation changes
economic incentives and economic output.
The economic
effects of taxation are a matter of considerable research.
Unsurprisingly, economists have found that lighter taxation
promotes economic growth. But they have also found that,
when it comes to stifling growth, not all taxes are the
same. Some do more damage than others.
Company tax is the
most damaging of all taxes to investment, innovation and
wages growth. High company tax rates deter investment in
favour of spending on current consumption. Reduced
investment leads to less capital per worker, lower
productivity and lower real wages.
Because the capital
markets are increasingly global, high corporate tax rates
also drive investment offshore. To compete with lower
offshore company tax-rates, companies in New Zealand must
deliver higher pre-tax incomes. This is achieved by reducing
wages.
Evidence has been growing in recent years that
cutting company tax rates can increase economic growth rates
and wages significantly.[2] The evidence is particularly strong
for small open economies, such as New Zealand. We do not
have the luxury of being a global financial hub such as the
U.S. or the U.K., where the taxman is less likely to drive
investors offshore.
However, cutting the company tax rate
can attract foreign capital to New Zealand. Cutting its
corporate tax rate to 12.5% was an important part
Ireland’s economic transformation in the 1990s.
Ireland
is not exceptional. A wide ranging study suggests that 10
percentage-point reduction in a country’s company tax rate
increases its stock of foreign direct investment, on average
and in the long run, by over 30%.[3]
…this evidence implies that
the volume of foreign direct investment, and accompanying
economic activity and corporate tax bases, is highly
responsive to local tax policies. It follows that countries
contemplating lowering their corporate income tax rates can
reasonably expect to receive significantly greater foreign
investment as a consequence.
Larry Summers,
Chief Economist of the World Bank, 1991–1993, United
States Secretary of the Treasury, 1999–2001, and Director
of the National Economic Council, The White House,
2009–2010
How great, then, are the benefits of
cutting the company tax rate?
Studies from the U.S. and
Europe suggest that the cutting company tax rate by 10
percentage-points will make economies grow by between 1% and
2% extra a year.[4]The likely effects on a small open
economy such as New Zealand are even greater.
If New
Zealand’s economy grew at 3% a year instead of 2% – a
modest assumption in light of the academic findings – that
would make a big difference over a relatively short period.
In just 15 years, it would mean the difference between our
economy growing 35% and growing 55%. Instead of (real) GDP
per person rising from $50,000 to $68,000, it will rise to
$73,000: a gain of $5,000 per person in just 15
years.
Evidence also shows that cutting company tax would
increase wages. Studies from the U.S. and from Germany
conclude that each 1% reduction in the company tax rate
increases wages by between 0.3% and 0.5%. In other words, a
large portion of the gains from cutting the company tax rate
will go to workers in the form of higher wages.[5]
* * * * *
No
single measure could do more to promote the economic welfare
of New Zealanders than cutting the company tax rate. And it
is relatively easy, because company tax raises far less
revenue for the government than income tax and GST. Each
percentage point reduction in company tax loses the Treasury
just $220 million in revenue. In fact, when you take into
account the fact that a lower company tax rate will expand
the economic base to which it is applied and increase the
dividends and wages subject to incomes tax, the loss to the
treasury ends up being only $150 million per percentage
point (see Table 1).
This means that by eliminating
“corporate welfare” – that is, taxpayers’ money
doled out to business interests – and the needless
spending increases of the last budget, we could cut the
company tax from 28% today to 20% next year and to 12.5% by
2020.[6]
Table 1: Revenue forgone
from a lower company tax, $million
Tax
rate Lost revenue Funded
by
2015 20.0% $1,530 Abolishing
corporate welfare ($1.5 billion) and carbon trading ($164
million)
2016 18.5% $154 Part of the
$1.5 billion of new spending in the
Budget
2017 17.0% $153 As
above
2018 15.5% $150 As
above
2019 14.0% $150 As
above
2020 12.5% $150 As above
* * * * *
Company tax imposes a terrible
drag on economic growth and wages, while raising relatively
little revenue for the Treasury. Cutting it dramatically is
a policy “no brainer”.
The Labour Party and their
left-wing allies will no doubt complain that this is yet
another ACT policy aimed at benefitting “the rich”. They
are wrong because, as explained, the primary beneficiaries
of a lower company tax rate are workers whose pay increases.
But if the left are uninterested in economic argument –
which history strongly suggests – they may be interested
to know that cutting company taxes is a policy favoured by
President Obama.
You’ve got too many companies
ending up making decisions based on what their tax director
says instead of what their engineer designs or what their
factories produce. And that puts our entire economy
at a disadvantage.
We need something smarter,
something simpler, something fairer. That’s why I
want to lower the corporate rate...
President
Barack Obama, 7th February 2011
If a tax cut is good
enough for President Obama, it should be good enough for New
Zealand’s left-wing politicians. And even if it were not
good enough for President Obama, slashing the company tax
rate would still be good enough for ACT. No single policy
will do more to promote economic growth and prosperity in
New Zealand.
I recommend the policy to you.
Party vote
ACT.
________________________________________
[1] Source: World Bank.
[2] Gordon, Roger H. & Hines, J.
“International taxation”, in Handbook of Public
Economics vol.4A, A Auerbach and M Feldstein (ed.)
(2002): 1935-1995. Auerbach, A. "Who Bears the Corporate
Tax? A Review of What We Know”, in Tax Policy and the
Economy vol. 20. National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (2006): 1-40. Gentry, W. “A Review of the Evidence on
the Incidence of the Corporate Income Tax,” U.S.
Department of the Treasury Office of Tax Analysis Paper no.
101 (December 2007).
[3] De Mooij, R., and Ederveen, S.
“Corporate Tax Elasticities: A Reader’s Guide to
Empirical
Findings,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Vol. 24 no. 4 (2008): 680–97.
[4] Lee, Y. and Gordon, R. “Tax
Structure and Economic Growth”, 89 Journal of Public
Economics (2005): 1027-43. Djankov, S., Ganser, T.,
McLiesh, C., Ramalho, r., and Shleifer, S. “The Effect of
Corporate Taxes on Investment and
Entrepreneurship”,American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics 2. No. 3(2010): 31-64. Ferede, E. and
Dahlby, B. “The Impact of Tax Cuts on Economic Growth:
Evidence from the Canadian Provinces”, 65 National Tax
Journal (2012) 563-594.
[5] Felix. R.A. and Hines, Jr., J.
“Corporate Taxes and Union Wages in the United States”,
NBER Working Papers 15263 (2009). Arulampalam, W., Devereux,
M. and Maffini, G. “The direct incidence of corporate
income tax on wages”, European Economic Review 56.
no. 6 (2012): 1038-1054. Fuest, C., Peichl, A. and Siegloch,
S.Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence
from Germany, IZA Discussion Papers 7390, Institute for
the Study of Labor (IZA) (2013).
[6] The corporate welfare spending we
would cut is listed in our Alternative Budget (May
2014), available on the ACT website: act.org.nz