The Letter 11 August 2014

Great week for ACT

Jamie Whyte won the minor party Leaders' debate, Colmar Brunton poll predicts David Seymour will win Epsom, David Seymour impresses in Q&A Epsom debate. Good response for ACT’s 12.5% Company Tax rate policy. “One law for all” speech dominates talk back radio. Chinese media predicts ACT will get 34% of the crucial “new” New Zealander vote . John Key gives ACT very strong endorsement.

Not a good week for coalition of the left

All tax and spend. Labour; Free doctors’ visits to half the population! David Cunliffe kept ruling out the Internet/Mana party while not refusing to accept their vote. (How does that work?). Winston Peters tells weak racist jokes and wants a baby bonus. Colin Craig said on the Minor Leaders debate he could support David Cunliffe. The Greens told us they get along fine with NZ First.
What is it with the Germans? The Internet/Mana party meetings look like a Nuremberg rally.

The minor leaders debate

All the leaders claim we “own” Lochinver Station. Only Jamie Whyte said the station is not “our” land, it is private property owned by the Stevenson family. It is communistic to restrict the right of private owners to sell to whoever they like. For Right/center voters that one stand won the debate. Jamie also got across ACT’s 3 strikes for burglary – the other leaders are more worried about the welfare of burglars than keeping our homes safe. The debate revealed only ACT is in favour of lower taxes and has realistic policies to grow the economy and jobs.

Q & A: the Epsom debate.

The Colmar Brunton poll showing that as Epsom voters realize John Key has endorsed David Seymour for Epsom ACT wins the seat. This made the debate an anti-climax. It did show, as the commentators said, that David Seymour having door knocked eleven thousand doors is right over the electorate’s issues. It is also clear that Labour and Green voters are voting strategically to try to block ACT from re-electing John Key PM. So it’s a battle of the strategic messages. Christine Rankin’s claim the number one issue in Epsom is brothels left viewers wondering if she knows where the Epsom electorate is.

That endorsement

ACT was taken by surprise by the strength of John Key’s endorsement. Here is what John Key said on TV3 Breakfast “thing you've got to say about David Seymour and ACT is they've been running a big campaign. I live in Epsom, you can barely walk down the street without being accosted by an ACT person there..."ACT is clearly to the right of National, but philosophically we're heading in a similar direction”. Read more:http://www.3news.co.nz/National-ACT-heading-in-a-similar-direction---Key/tabid/1607/articleID/355479/Default.aspx#ixzz39SeKeNFN
The TVNZ poll found 28% of voters do not know John Key has endorsed voting for David Seymour so you might like to send the clip to anyone you know in Epsom. http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/q-a-colmar-brunton-poll

Our billboard survey

Who is winning the billboard campaign? National has the most. The billboards all feature the party’s strongest asset, John Key, but they are dull. National does not want an exciting campaign. Labour’s billboards are a mess. We have seen four different styles. David Cunliffe is nowhere to be seen. The Greens, who have had great billboards in the past, have confusing signs this year. No theme. With $3.5 million we are surprised Internet/Mana hoardings are so poor. “Change the government’ shows they stand for nothing. We are impressed with the Maori Party hoardings – they look stylish. New Zealand First has few hoardings and they do not appear to show there is an election. Colin Craig’s photo makes him look even wackier. We like ACT’s billboards. The yellow is striking. You cannot move in Epsom without seeing David Seymour. Using Chinese script on Kenneth Wang’s signs was a first and a risk. It is paying off big time, see below. As a user pay party ACT sells its billboards. The first 1000 signs sold out. The second print is selling fast, already more than last election. The biggest seller? “One country, one law”. Want a sign? Click here.

A surprise for the commentators

There are 150,000 registered Chinese voters as many voters as registered on the Maori roll. We have seen miles of commentary on the Maori vote and not a word on the Chinese who will also elect around seven MPs. Coming from a communist country the Chinese are very reluctant to answer polls. We must look at other indications. ACT’s Kenneth Wang draws huge crowds. On a popular Chinese website they have a poll. National 38%, Labour just 14% and ACT 33%. The rest get virtually nothing. If that poll www.e2020.co.nz and the Colmar Brunton poll in Epsom are right then ACT is already electing three MPs. When Labour does its post-election analysis of what when wrong, attacking the sale of Lochinver Station may not look smart.

Rodney Hide

A Rodney Hide column is always worth reading. We are impressed with two. One an open letter to Susan Devoy defending Jamie Whyte http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/08/rodney-hide-writes-susan-devoy/ and a second in the Sunday Herald endorsing David Seymour for Epsom. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11306615 Rodney we have missed you.

ends

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