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Roy Morgan Poll August 20

Wednesday, 20 August 2014

National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key’s leadership.
NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support since September 2013.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows gain in support for National (48%, up 2%) now with a significant lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (39%, down 3%) exactly a month before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 27.5% (down 2.5%), the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First looks set to return to Parliament with 6.5% (up 1.5%) – the highest support for NZ First since September 2013, the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be the Key Government being returned to Parliament.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 139pts (up 4pts) with 63.5% (up 3.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating (139) is substantially higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week fell to 92.5pts (down 7pts).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%) with an election-winning lead over a Labour/ Greens alliance (39%) only a month before the NZ Election. Last week’s release of Nicky Hager’s new book ‘Dirty Politics’ has caused a stir in the media although the full impact of some of Hager’s explosive disclosures has yet to be seen.

“In light of Hager’s new book though it is worth remembering that ‘dirty tricks’ in politics is nothing new – Politics is ‘dirty’ and everyone knows that. What has changed in recent years is that clearly the advance of technology and the increasing role of the Internet in everyone’s lives provide a new dimension to these sorts of revelations. The Internet has opened up new levels of transparency and added an unprecedented level of scrutiny to the actions of all of us, and politicians in particular.

“Along with these technological advancements also comes increased spying from Government agencies like the Government Communications Securities Bureau (GCSB), and even more nefarious activities like hacking and collusion between Ministerial staff and bloggers to discredit opponents – as revealed in Hager’s new book.

“In terms of the New Zealand Election though, the most important thing to assess is how Prime Minister John Key handles the revelations and the fall-out. If Key demonstrates strong leadership and competence, electors will reward Key for these qualities rather than blame him for the shortcomings of those around him – the Roy Morgan Scoop NZ Election Reactor is the best tool available to monitor how New Zealand electors judge their leaders.

“The other point to keep in mind is that timing is crucial during elections. The release of Hager’s book a month before the election gives all the leaders time to respond, and electors will judge their response, whereas information that is revealed in the final days of an election campaign can have an immediate impact that doesn’t give time for leaders to react.

“Looking directly at today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the main parties are essentially unchanged on the results of the 2011 NZ Election. An exception to this is the new Internet Party (1.5% support) which is set to win representation in Parliament if Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira holds his seat of Te Tai Toekerau. However, a significant difference compared to three years ago is the high Government Confidence Rating (139pts, up 4pts). This is significantly higher than immediately prior to the last election when the final pre-election New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll showed Government Confidence at 118.5, and a strong sign for Key as he seeks re-election.

“Most notably however, the ‘fourth party’ of New Zealand politics, NZ First, has increased its share of the vote to 6.5% (up 1.5%) – a level of support that would see all eight NZ First MPs returned to Parliament, and likely give NZ First Leader Winston Peters the chance to once again choose who New Zealand’s Prime Minister will be. Peters last held a Ministerial post when he served as Foreign Minister during the last term of Helen Clark’s Prime Ministership (2005-08).

“Although the ongoing discussion about ‘Dirty Politics’ appears likely to damage support for National, today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First may be the biggest beneficiary of a discredited National Government rather than the main opposition Labour and Greens parties.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample SizePercentage Estimate
40%-60%25% or 75%10% or 90%5% or 95%
500±4.5±3.9±2.7±1.9
1,000±3.2±2.7±1.9±1.4
1,500±2.6±2.2±1.5±1.1
2,000±2.2±1.9±1.3±1.0



Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTENationalLabourGreen

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party*

Internet*ACT

NZ

United

Future

Conservatives*Other
ELECTIONS%%%%%%%%%%%
July 27, 200220.941.3710.4n/an/an/a7.16.7n/a6.6
September 17, 200539.141.15.35.722.12n/an/a1.512.67n/a2.48
November 8, 200844.9333.996.724.072.39n/an/a3.650.87n/a3.38
November 26, 201147.3127.4811.066.591.431.08n/a1.070.602.650.73
ROY MORGAN POLL
Jun 8-24, 201247.5321241.50.5n/a0.50.5n/a1.5
Jun 25-Jul 8, 201245.532.5134.510.5n/a0.50.5n/a2
Jul 9-22, 201247.530115.510.5n/a10.53^
Jul 23-Aug 5, 2012443214421n/a0.50.51.50.5
Aug 13-26, 201244.53214.552.5^n/a1^0.5^
Aug 27-Sep. 9, 201246.53112.54.52.51n/a0.5^10.5
Sep 10-23, 201243.53311.552.51.5n/a0.5^20.5
Sep 24-Oct 7, 201241.533.513.56.51.5^n/a0.50.520.5
Oct 8-21, 201243.529137.53.50.5n/a0.5^20.5
Oct 29-Nov 11, 201245.532.510.5521n/a0.50.51.51
Nov 12-25, 20124531.513.56.51^n/a0.50.51.5^
Nov 26-Dec 9, 201245.533.51151.51n/a1^10.5
Jan 2-13, 20134631.512520.5n/a0.50.51.50.5
Jan 14-17, 20134631.513.55.51.50.5n/a0.5^0.50.5
Jan 28-Feb 10, 20134434.513.540.50.5n/a0.5^20.5
Feb 11-24, 201347.530.512.532.50.5n/a0.50.520.5
Feb 25-Mar 10, 201343.532.513.552^n/a0.50.520.5
Mar 11- 24 , 20134434.51332.50.5n/a0.511^
Apr 1-14, 201340.535.513.5520.5n/a0.50.51.50.5
Apr 15-28, 201346.531.5114.51.51n/a0.50.521
Apr 29-May 12, 2013443212521n/a1.50.51.50.5
May 13-26, 20134135124.520.5n/a0.50.52.51.5
Jun 3-16, 2013443311.5621n/a0.5-2^
Jun 17-30, 201346.531.5133.51.50.5n/a-0.521
Jul 1-14, 2013473111.54.521.5n/a0.5^1.50.5
Jul 15-28, 201351291041.51n/a1^1.51
Jul 29-Aug 11, 2013443414320.5n/a0.5^11
Aug 12-25, 20134431.5145.520.5n/a0.50.510.5
Aug 26-Sep. 8, 20134132.5156.510.5n/a10.51.50.5
Sep 16-29, 2013423711.54.510.5n/a0.50.520.5
Sep 30-Oct 13, 201341.53712.551.50.5n/a0.5^0.51
Oct 14-27, 20134235.5114.51.50.5n/a10.52.51
Oct 28-Nov 10, 201345.53212.551.51n/a-0.51.50.5
Nov 11-24, 201344.534113.51.51n/a0.50.521.5
Nov 25-Dec 8, 20134530.514.551.51n/a^^20.5
Jan 6-19, 201443.533.512.5420.5n/a^0.52.51
Jan 20-Feb 2, 20144733114.51.510.5^^1.5^
Feb 3-16, 20144830125.50.510.510.51^
Feb 17-Mar 2, 201448.530.510.54.51.50.5^10.52.5^
Mar 3-16, 201445.531.5143.52^^0.50.51.51
Mar 17-30, 20144332135.51.50.50.50.50.52.50.5
Mar 31-Apr 13, 201448.528.511.55.51110.5 -20.5
Apr 21-May 4, 201442.53114.56111.50.50.50.51
May 5-18, 201445.530.513.56110.50.5-10.5
May 19-June 1, 201452.52994.51.50.50.51-10.5
June 2-15, 201449.52812411.510.5^1.51
June 16-29, 20144828125.51.511.51^10.5
June 30-July 13, 20145123.5156110.50.50.51^
July 14-27,2014 46301251.51.510.50.511

August 4-17, 2014 4827.511.56.5111.50.50.511

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; The Mana Party was launched in April 2011. The Conservative Party was launched prior to the 2011 New Zealand Election and first measured by the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll in July 2012. The Internet Party was launched in January 2014.. ^ Result less than 0.5%.


Two-Party Preferred: National Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

National Party-led Government*Parliamentary

Opposition Parties#

Election, November 8, 200851.8448.16
Election, November 26, 201150.4146.21
ROY MORGAN POLL
July 9-22, 20125047
July 23-August 5, 20124751
August 13-26, 20124851.5
August 27-Sep. 9, 201249.549
Sep. 10-23, 201246.551
Sep. 24 – Oct. 7, 20124453.5
Oct. 8-21, 201247.550
Oct. 29 – Nov. 11, 201248.549
Nov. 12-25, 20124751.5
Nov. 26 – Dec. 9, 20124850.5
Jan. 2-13, 20134949
Jan. 14-17, 20134851
Jan. 28 – Feb. 10, 20134552.5
Feb. 11-24, 20135146.5
Feb. 25 – March 10, 201346.551
March 11- 24 , 20134851
April 1-14, 201343.554.5
April 15-28, 20134948
April 29 – May 12, 20134850
May 13-26, 20134452
June 3-16, 201346.551.5
June 17-30, 201348.548.5
July 1-14, 201349.548.5
July 15-28, 201353.544
July 29 – August 11, 201346.551.5
August 12-25, 20134751.5
August 26 – Sep. 8, 201343.554.5
Sep. 16-29, 20134453.5
Sep. 30-Oct 13, 201343.555
Oct 14-27, 20134551.5
Oct 28-Nov 10, 201347.550.5
Nov 11-24, 20134749.5
Nov 25-Dec 8, 201346.551
Jan 6-19, 20144650.5
Jan 20-Feb 2, 201448.549.5
Feb 3-16, 20145048.5
Feb 17-Mar 2, 201451.546
Mar 3-16, 201448.549
Mar 17-30, 201445.551
Mar 31–Apr 13, 20145046.5
Apr 21-May 4, 201444.552.5
May 5-18, 20144751
May 19-June 1, 20145543
June 2-15, 20145145.5
June 16-29, 201450.548
June 30-July 13, 20145346
July 14-27, 201448.549.5
August 4-17, 20145048

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, NZ First, Internet-Mana Party alliance. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

Finding No. 5747 is taken from Computer Report No. 2407

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
Jan 14-27,

2013

Jan 28-Feb 10,

2013

Feb 11-24,

2013

Feb 25-Mar 10,

2013

Mar 11-24,

2013

Apr 1-14,
2013
Apr 15-28,

2013

Apr 29- May 12,

2013

%%%%%%%%
Right direction57555451.553.551.554.556.5
Wrong direction30.530.532.537.53435.53430.5
Roy Morgan GCR#126.5124.5121.5114119.5116120.5126
Can’t say12.514.513.51112.51311.513
TOTAL100100100100100100100100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
May 13-26,

2013

June 3-16,
2013
June 17-30,
2013
July 1-14,

2013

July 15-28,
2013
July 29-Aug 11,
2013
Aug 12-25,
2013
Aug 26-Sep 8,

2013

%%%%%%%%
Right direction55.554575858.5585852.5
Wrong direction32.533.53229.5303030.535.5
Roy Morgan GCR#123120.5125128.5128.5128127.5117
Can’t say1212.51112.511.51211.512
TOTAL100100100100100100100100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
Sep 16-29,
2013
Sep 30-Oct 13,
2013
Oct 14-27,

2013

Oct 28-Nov 10, 2013Nov 11-24,
2013
Nov 25-Dec 8,
2013
Jan 6-19,
2014
%%%%%%%
Right direction595557.5615958.563
Wrong direction29.53128.527.52928.523.5
Roy Morgan GCR#129.5124129133.5130130139.5
Can’t say11.5141411.5121313.5
TOTAL100100100100100100100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
Jan 20-Feb 2,
2014
Feb 3-16,
2014
Feb 17-Mar 2,
2014
Mar 3-16,

2014

Mar 17-30
2014
Mar 31-Apr 13,
2014
Apr 21-May 4,
2014
%%%%%%%
Right direction63.563.56561616562
Wrong direction24.523.523.525.5282226.5
Roy Morgan GCR#139140141.5135.5133143135.5
Can’t say121311.513.5111311.5
TOTAL100100100100100100100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
May 5-18,
2014
May 19-June 1

2014
June 2-15,
2014
June 16-29,
2014
June 30-July 13

2014
July 14-27

2014
Aug 4-17,

2014
%%%%%%%
Right direction6064.563.56565.56063.5
Wrong direction28242423.5232524.5
Roy Morgan GCR#132140.5139.5141.5142.5135139
Can’t say1211.512.511.511.51512
TOTAL100100100100100100100




New Zealand Primary Vote


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New Zealand Roy Morgan GCR


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