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Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer Labour deal

2 September 2014
Horizon Research
Media release

Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer coalition deal with Labour

67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after September 20’s general election.

The majority preference for a change of Government among the party’s voters underscores the “difficult” decision making party leader Winston Peters says he will face.

A new HorizonPoll, surveying 1,676 eligible voters between Friday August 29 and Tuesday September 2, also finds 71.1% of those currently intending to cast a party vote for New Zealand First would prefer a Labour-led government. 28.9% would prefer National.

Among New Zealand First’s 2011 voters 67.0% would prefer Labour, 33.0% National.

The result for all respondents reflects the potentially tight electoral race:

48.7% would prefer a National-led government, 51.3% a Labour led one. Given the survey’s margin of error the result is too close to call.

The survey is of members of Horizon Research’s national online panel, representing the adult population at the last census. Results are weighted by age, gender, personal income, educational qualifications and party voted for at the 2011 general election to ensure a representative population sample. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 2.4%.

The maximum margin of error on the New Zealand First voter sub sample is +/- 7.1%. A preference for a Labour-led government would still be found if the maximum margin of error were applied.

Coalition leadership preferences by intended 2014 party vote and 2011 general election party vote

If a New Zealand general election were held tomorrow, for which party would you cast your party vote?
If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?ALLACT New ZealandConserv-ativeGreen PartyLabour PartyManaPartyMaori PartyNational PartyNew Zealand First PartyUnited FutureOther partyWould choose not to voteNot eligible to voteDon't know
Labour51.3%13.8%20.9%88.0%86.2%99.3%58.2%1.4%71.1%3.3%88.0%66.9%N/A71.9%
National48.7%86.2%79.1%11.9%13.8%0.7%41.8%98.6%28.9%96.7%12.1%33.1%N/A28.1%
N1,531259831253419115831939920268
PARTY VOTE 2011
If there is a coalition government after the next general election, which main party would you prefer to lead it?ALLACT New ZealandConservativeGreen PartyLabour PartyManaPartyMaori PartyNational PartyNew Zealand First PartyUnited FutureOther partyChose not to voteWas not eligible to voteDon't know or can't remember
Labour47.6%0.0%32.7%93.9%93.2%100.0%55.7%8.7%67.0%28.5%80.0%71.3%51.0%52.4%
National45.4%100.0%67.3%6.1%6.8%0.0%44.3%91.3%33.0%71.5%20.0%28.7%49.0%47.6%
N1,53217422503621114520114104431032

Horizon’s July-August nationwide survey results on coalition leadership preferences are here
https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/378/59-of-intend

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