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iPredict Daily Election Update 1: Nats to lead govt with NZ1




Monday 8 September 2014




This is the first daily update of forecasts from the iPredict market for the 2014 New Zealand General Election.

John Key’s National Party is forecast to lead the next government with the support of the New Zealand First Party.

Detailed Information:

• Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-open at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September

• Expected turnout 77.4%

• National expected to lead next government with 79.1% probability

• Forecast party vote shares:

o National: 44.5%

o Labour: 27.9%

o Green: 12.8%

o NZ First: 5.1%

o Conservatives: 3.9%

o Internet-Mana: 2.9%

o ACT: 1.3%

o Maori Party: 0.7%

o UnitedFuture: 0.5%

o ALCP: 0.2%

o Civilian Party: 0.2%

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: UnitedFuture (83.2% probability), ACT (82.2%), Maori Party (75.2%) and Mana (73.1%)

• Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (51% probability of being won by National’s Jono Naylor)

o Port Hills (55% for National’s Nuk Korako)

o Waimakariri (65% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey)

o Christchurch Central (71% for Labour’s Tony Milne)

o Hutt South (71% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard)

o Napier (71% for Labour’s Stuart Nash)

o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira)

o Waiariki (71% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell)

o Te Tai Hauauru (74% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe)

o Te Atatu (75% for Labour’s Phil Twyford)

o Tamaki Makaurau (75% for Labour’s Peeni Henare)

o Maungakiekie (77% for National’s Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga)

o Hamilton East (79% for National’s David Bennett)

o Epsom (80% for Act’s David Seymour)

o Ohariu (80% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 55 seats

o Labour: 35 seats

o Green: 16 seats

o NZ First: 6 seats

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats

o ACT: 2 seats

o Maori Party: 1 seat

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat

• NZ First to hold balance of power and back National (61% probability) or sit on cross benches (6.1%)

• Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (56% probability) and be replaced by Robertson (58.3%)

• Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (60% probability) and be replaced by Joyce (40.1%)

• No rise in Official Cash Rate expected on 11 September (97.3% probability)

• Balance of payments deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.8% when announced on 18 September

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter

• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.17% of GDP

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4%

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. This week’s was taken at 2.56 pm today.


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