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iPredict Daily Election Update 5: Minor Gain For National




Friday 12 September 2014




National has made another minor gain overnight in terms of its likelihood of leading the next government, but only because the probability NZ First will back it has risen. National’s forecast party vote has fallen to the benefit of Labour and the Greens, and NZ First has made gains at the expense of the Conservatives. Forecast turnout is up to 80%. Palmerston North is now 50:50 between Labour and National. There is now only a 50% chance of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 and it is expected to be only 0.09% of GDP. The chances of David Cunliffe departing as Labour leader by the end of the year have risen over the last day.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 80.0% (up from 76.6% yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 81.8% probability (up from 81.3% yesterday)

• Only 25% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down from 29% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 44.5% (down from 45.2% yesterday)

o Labour: 27.3% (up from 26.7%)

o Green: 12.8% (up from 12.7%)

o NZ First: 5.9% (up from 5.3%)

o Conservatives: 3.8% (down from 4.2%)

o Internet-Mana: 2.7% (down from 2.8%)

o ACT: 1.6% (steady)

o Maori Party: 0.7% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.5% (down from 0.6%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (steady)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (89.4%, up from 86.6% yesterday), UnitedFuture (83.2% probability, up from 82.2%), Maori Party (80.2%, down from 83.2%), and Mana (75.0%, up from 66.8%)

Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (50:50 between Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway and National’s Jono Naylor, compared with 55% probability for Lees-Galloway yesterday)

o Port Hills (55% for National’s Nuk Korako, steady)

o Te Tai Hauauru (65% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, steady)

o Te Atatu (65% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 73%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (67% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, up from 62%)

o Christchurch Central (69% for Labour’s Tony Milne, steady)

o Waimakariri (69% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, up from 60%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (73% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, up from 67%)

o Hutt South (79% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, up from 69%)

o Napier (79% for Labour’s Stuart Nash, up from 75%)

o Waiariki (80% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 79%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 56 seats (down from 57 yesterday)

o Labour: 34 seats (up from 33)

o Green: 16 seats (steady)

o NZ First: 7 seats (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 3 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana would have only 60 seats and could not form a government without the support of the Maori Party

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (68% probability, up from 66% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (3.0%, down from 3.1%)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (55% probability, up from 52% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (51.7%, steady)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2016 (65% probability, up from 62% yesterday) and be replaced by Steven Joyce (38.5%, steady). Note, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2016, the probability of him doing so is 47% (up from 43% yesterday)

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September (steady compared with yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.8% when announced on 18 September (steady)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.3% (down from 1.4% yesterday)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (94% probability, up from 93% yesterday)

• Fiscal surplus in 2014/15 expected to be 0.09% of GDP (down from 0.10% yesterday), and the probability of any surplus is now only 50%

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 8.33 am. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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