Split voting could deliver surprises | Election Data
Media release – for immediate use
Election Data Consortium
12 September 2014
Split voting could deliver surprises
Voters in National-held electorates are less likely to split their vote, while those living in Ōhariu are the most likely to vote for a different candidate than their party vote says the Election Data Consortium.
The Consortium is made up of polling company Roy Morgan and data analytics company Qrious. Its analysis of polling data shows that Ōhariu is the electorate with the highest likelihood of split-voting with 25 percent of voters stating they intend to split their vote. This was followed by Wellington Central, Rongotai and Mt Albert, with Invercargill being the least likely electorate to see split-voting.
“Ōhariu is held by United Future Leader Peter Dunne where National voters are being urged by some to give Dunne their electorate vote. Wellington Central and Rongotai are safe Labour electorate seats, but at the last election gained a large number of Green party votes. It appears all three seats are likely again to have a high level of split votes,” says Qrious spokesman Cyrus Facciano.
“Epsom is another electorate where the outcome will rely on split-voting. However, perhaps surprisingly, the electorate only comes in tenth place in terms of the percentage of those indicating they will be split-voting.
“Voters understand that under MMP they have two votes. The party vote that determines the make-up of parliament, and the electorate vote that elects their local representative.
“Many people choose to split those votes. And that could affect the election result.”
Roy Morgan asks if their party vote will match their electorate vote. Qrious analysed this data covering the period of December 2011 to April 2014 to get some insights into the thinking of enrolled voters.
“Vote splitting can done both for tactical reasons in helping small parties over the line and also as a way to more closely express their feelings about individual candidates and parties. The analysis shows many people are still considering splitting their votes,” says Mr Facciano.
The data also indicates those in National held seats are most likely to give both their votes to the same party, though Nelson stands out as an exception to this pattern.
The first piece of analysis released by the Election Data Consortium related to the party preferences of younger non-voters and can be found here:http://www.electionresults.co.nz/busting-myths-about-non-voters
About Roy Morgan Research - roymorgan.com
Roy Morgan Research is Australia’s best known and longest established market research company, with an unparalleled reputation for reliable, accurate, meaningful, revealing market research. Proudly independent, the Company now operates globally with offices in New Zealand, USA, UK, Indonesia and throughout Australia. See more here: roymorgan.com/about/about-roy-morgan-research
About Qrious - qrious.co.nz
Information. Insight. Action. We are entering a new, more connected digital age, where innovation can flourish. Qrious is here to provide the platform and the capability to support this phenomenon, through better use of information to provide insights that are actionable.