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Election Daily Update #9

iPredict Ltd 2014 New Zealand Election Daily Update #9

Tuesday 16 September 2014




John Key’s National Party appears to have received a major boost from last night’s “Moment of Truth” event, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Despite no major changes in forecast party votes, and no change at all in the forecast numbers in Parliament, Mr Key’s chance of leading the next government has leapt nearly 5 points to 85% since yesterday. However, for the first time, the market expects Mr Key to step down as leader of the National Party by the end of 2016, even if he leads the next government, with Steven Joyce the favourite to replace him. David Cunliffe’s probability of departing as leader of the Labour Party by the end of this year has increased to 53% in the last day, with Grant Robertson continued to be picked to replace him. Epsom has become more marginal while Labour has made gains in Palmerston North, Te Atatu, Christchurch Central, Te Tai Hauauru, Tamaki Makaurau, and Te Tai Tokerau, although Mana’s Hone Harawira continues to be favoured to win the last of these. Maori Party leader Te Ururoa Flavell looks safer in Waiariki. Economic forecasts remain steady, expect for a small improvement in the forecast 2014/15 fiscal surplus.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 78.6% (steady compared with yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 85.0% probability (up from 80.2% yesterday)

• 20% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down from 31% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 45.2% (down from 45.3% yesterday)

o Labour: 24.8% (up from 24.5%)

o Green: 13.6% (down from 13.8%)

o NZ First: 5.9% (down from 6.0%)

o Conservatives: 4.2% (down from 4.3%)

o Internet-Mana: 3.0% (up from 2.9%)

o ACT: 1.8% (down from 1.9%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.4% (steady)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (steady)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (88.8%, up from 81.3% yesterday,) UnitedFuture (83.2%, steady), Maori Party (80.2%, down from 85.0%), and Mana (71.1%, down from 76.8%)

Marginal seats:

o Port Hills (53% probability for National’s Nuk Korako, steady compared with yesterday)

o Palmerston North (55% for Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up from 53%)

o Waimakariri (62% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, up from 60%)

o Hutt South (70% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, steady)

o Te Atatu (71% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, up from 69%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, down from 75%)

o Christchurch Central (75% for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 71%)

o Epsom (79% for Act’s David Seymour, down from 83%)

o Te Tai Hauauru (79% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, up from 69%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (80% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, up from 67%)

o Waiariki (82% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 77%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 57 seats (steady)

o Labour: 31 seats (steady)

o Green: 17 seats (steady)

o NZ First: 7 seats (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have 61 seats and could form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana/Maori Party would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (64% probability, down from 73% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (0.8%, down from 2.6%)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (53% probability, up from 51% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, steady)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by the end of 2016 (76% probability, up from 68% yesterday). If Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2016, the probability of him doing so is 61%, the first time the market has forecast he will not complete his full third term

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 34% probability (steady compared with yesterday)

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced tomorrow (steady compared with yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced on Thursday (steady)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady)

• Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.23% of GDP (up from 0.20% yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 1.32 pm. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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