Scoop has an Ethical Paywall
Work smarter with a Pro licence Learn More

Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 

New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

iPredict Ltd

New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Monday 3 November 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

www.ipredict.co.nz

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL

Inflation and interest-rate expectations continue to fall, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Former prime minister Helen Clark’s prospects of becoming the next Secretary-General of the United Nations have reached 40%. Andrew Little remains favoured to be the next leader of the Labour Party and there is at least a 55% probability his deputy will be a woman. Jonathan Coleman has emerged as a contender to eventually replace John Key as National Party leader, with 9% probability, behind the favourites Steven Joyce and Paula Bennett.

Politics:

Next Labour Leader expected to be:

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading

Are you getting our free newsletter?

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.

o Andrew Little 69% probability (up from 68% probability last week)

o Grant Robertson 26% probability (steady compared with last week)

o David Parker 5% probability (down from 6% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 0% probability (steady compared with last week)

Next Labour Deputy Leader expected to be:

o Jacinda Ardern 31% probability (down from 38% last week)

o Annette King 13% probability (up from 12% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 11% probability (up from 7% last week)

o Grant Robertson 10% probability (down from 12% last week)

o Andrew Little 8% probability (down from 9% last week)

o David Parker 7% probability (steady compared with last week)

o David Shearer 5% probability (down from 6% last week)

o Stuart Nash 4% probability (steady compared with last week)

o Other 13% probability (up from 4% last week)

John Key expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (72% probability, down from 74% last week) and has a 47% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (down from 49% last week)

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, (32% probability, down from 33% last week), followed by Paula Bennett (29%, down from 30% last week), Jonathan Coleman (9%, up from 3% last week) and Simon Bridges (7%, steady compared with last week)

• Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week)

• National expected to win 2017 General Election (52% probability, down from 53% last week)

Economics:

• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.8% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.8% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.0% in the March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.4% in September quarter (steady compared with last week) and 5.4% in the December quarter (steady)

• Current account deficit expected to be 2.6% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week) and 3.9% of GDP in the December quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 1.1% to end of December quarter (down from 1.2% last week)

o 1.4% to end of March 2015 quarter (down from 1.5% last week)

o 1.8% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 2.1% to end of September 2015 quarter (new this week)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.500% on 11 December (down from 3.509% last week)

o 3.505% on 29 January (down from 3.518% last week)

o 3.517% on 12 March (down from 3.552% last week)

o 3.552% on 30 April (down from 3.608% last week)

o 3.605% on 11 June (down from 3.693% last week)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched this week

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.04% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.07% last week)

o 0.95% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.37% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• There is a 36% probability New Zealand and South Korea will sign a Free Trade Agreement by 1 December 2014 (down from 43% last week)

• The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 20% probability it will be, steady)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General have improved to 40% probability, up from 35% last week

• There is a 19% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (down from 21% last week)

Notes:

• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.51 pm today.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels


 
 
 
 

Join Our Free Newsletter

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.