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Slower population growth in the long term

Slower population growth in the long term

28 November 2014

New Zealand's population will likely grow by 1.4–1.8 percent a year during 2014–16, but growth will be lower in the long term, Statistics New Zealand said today.

"The short-term trends reflect the current high level of arrivals into New Zealand, and the current low level of departures," population statistics manager Vina Cullum said.

"However, population growth will slow as our population continues to age, and as the gap between the number of births and deaths narrows. Beyond the 2020s, annual population growth of under 1 percent can be expected."

The projections assume migration will continue to fluctuate from year to year, but will average a net gain of 12,000 a year in the long term. Fertility levels are assumed to remain similar to current levels, while life expectancy is assumed to increase further.

Currently 4.5 million people live in New Zealand. According to the newly released population projections, our total population is projected to reach between 4.9 and 5.2 million in the mid-2020s, and between 5.3 and 7.2 million in the late 2060s.

The number of New Zealanders aged 65 years and over (65+) is projected to climb from 650,000 in 2014 to over 1 million in the late 2020s. Those aged 65+ will then account for 20–22 percent of our population, compared with 14 percent currently.

These figures are from the national population projections, which indicate the size and structure of New Zealand's future population.


For more information about these statistics:
• Visit National Population Projections: 2014(base)–2068

ends

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