International analysis: NZ climate target “inadequate,"
International analysis: NZ climate target “inadequate," far from doing its "fair share”
New Zealand is far from doing its “fair
share” of climate action, with its climate plans,
submitted this week to the UN, and rated as “inadequate” by an
independent international analysis: the Climate Action
Tracker.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an analysis undertaken by four independent European research organisations: Climate Analytics, Ecofys, NewClimate Institute and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. It has developed a groundbreaking method to measure the fairness of governmental climate action efforts.
New Zealand last week submitted its provisional INDC – (intended nationally determined contribution) to the UN, with a target to reduce emissions by 30% below 2005 by 2030 which is equivalent to 11% below 1990 levels by 2030.
New Zealand’s “inadequate” rating indicates that its commitment is not in line with any interpretations of a “fair” approach to reach a 2°C pathway: if most other countries were to follow New Zealand’s approach, global warming would exceed 3–4°C, a world that would see oceans acidifying, coral reefs dissolving, sea levels rising rapidly, and more than 40% species extinction.
“New Zealand’s climate target shows it’s far from doing its ‘fair share,’ and is anything but ambitious,” said Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist at Climate Analytics. “While most other governments intend cutting emissions, New Zealand appears to be increasing emissions, and hiding this through creative accounting. It may not have to take any action at all to meet either its 2020 or 2030 targets. ”
“New Zealand’s climate policy is projected to head in the opposite direction from the world’s biggest emitters such as China, the United States and the European Union. It has taken little or no action on climate change since 2008 – except for watering down its ETS, and we can find no evidence of any policies that would change this,” said Prof. Kornelis Blok of Ecofys.
The Climate Action Tracker’s assessment shows:
• Based on current policies
NZ emissions per capita, while likely to remain stable at
around 17 tonnes of CO2e per person (or decrease slightly),
are set to surpass those of the US by around 2025. US per
capita emissions in 2012 were 20.6 tonnes of CO2e per person
and decreasing steadily. This reflects the underlying
reality that while the United States is taking action on
climate change with a wide range of policies, New Zealand
has few policies in place to cut emissions, and has no
emissions cap in its domestic Emission Trading System
(ETS).
•
• If New Zealand applies the rules it is
proposing to use after 2020 to account for its Kyoto surplus
and forestry credits, its overall agriculture, energy, waste
and industrial greenhouse gas emissions could increase to
11% above 1990 levels by 2030;
•
• New Zealand's
proposed 2030 INDC target is not on a direct path to its 50%
reduction by 2050 goal, unlike other major economies such as
the EU and the USA. But New Zealand’s 2050 goal is also
insufficient, and would require a 45% reduction by 2030
below 2005 levels (30% below 1990).
•
• There are
virtually no policies in place to address the
fastest-growing sources of emissions in New Zealand from
transport and industrial sources, which comprise over 50% of
the growth in emissions (excluding forestry) in New Zealand
since 1990.
•
• While New
Zealand has not agreed to accept a legally binding
commitment for the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment
period, yet it appears to be planning to apply accounting
rules that carry over surplus units from the first
commitment period. This is something that is available to
countries with commitments under the second commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol, but not those without a
commitment, like New Zealand. The legal basis upon which New
Zealand is seeking to rely upon these accounting rules is
therefore unclear.
•
“Accounting credits
claimed by New Zealand to meet its 2020 target could see
emissions (excluding forestry) increase without constraint
to 32% above 1990 levels by 2020, rather than decreasing to
5% below 1990 as stated in the government’s original
unconditional pledge,” said Dr Louise Jeffery from Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact
Research.
“Unusually, New Zealand’s INDC is stated as being provisional pending confirmation in or after Paris of the accounting rules for the land sector and access to carbon markets. However, New Zealand may struggle to secure the rules that it needs to allow its emissions to continue increasing, which raises another question: what would New Zealand’s target be if its preferred rule-set fails to materialise?” said Dr Marcia Rocha from Climate Analytics.
ends