Seismic policy lives saved estimate a fabrication

“The claim by Nick Smith,Minister of Building and Housing, in a recently released Cabinet paper, that 335 lives will be saved by the new seismic strengthening policies over the next 100 years, grossly overstates the true position,” Ian Harrison Chair of EBSS says.

MBIE’s analysis of the life safety benefits, which is based on sound scientific evidence, shows that just 24 lives can be expected to be saved.

The Minister’s Office has said that “officials have thoroughly checked the cost-benefit analysis that has been released to date and can find no reference to the figure of 24 as an alternative to the figure of 335 contained in the Cabinet paper. The estimate of 335 was derived from modelling by an independent consultant based on population adjusted historical earthquake fatalities across New Zealand, over the next 100 years."

“On page 37 of the MBIE cost benefit paper ‘Indicative CBA analysis for earthquake prone building review’ it clearly states that the average lives lost per year with no strengthening was estimated to be 0.96, and 0.72 with strengthening to 34% NBS. Over 100 years the difference comes to 24 lives saved,” Mr. Harrison responded.

EBSS has attempted to replicate the Minister’s lives saved estimate but could only do so by making bizzare assumptions, such as assuming that all of New Zealand is as seismically risky as Wellington, or that all present buildings were built before 1930.

“Cabinet has made critical decisions on the basis of the lives saved estimate, but it appears that it was misled” said Mr. Harrison.

In May EBSS asked MBIE, under the OIA, for the documents that would explain how the Minister’s number was calculated. The request was initially refused because it would be a “contempt of the House of Representatives”, and after three months no relevant documentation was provided.

“MBIE and the Minister need to come clean and provide the independent consultant’s analysis.” Mr. Harrison said.

ENDS

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