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Free Press - 27/10/15: RWC, Three Strikes

Free Press
ACT’s regular bulletin

Kerre McIvor Weighs in on RWC Bill
Remember when letting pubs open for the Rugby World Cup was going to destroy society, especially in poor rural areas like Opononi? Kerre reports: “The husband and I joined a group of about 60 at the Opononi pub. All ages were there and women outnumbered men. The only suggestion of riotous behaviour was when a group of nanas sitting at a table showed vocal appreciation as Sonny Bill ran on to the field.”

Freedom 1 Naysayers 0
Kerre’s whole column is a good read. The most enduring outcome of opening pubs for the RWC will be a gentle reminder to the naysayers in future debates: Kiwis are overwhelmingly responsible people who can handle a drink whilst watching the rugby. We should not have to justify our freedoms – the government should have to justify restricting them.

Celebrate the Upcoming AB Victory (and the freedom to do so)
Lacking a convenient excuse to study charter schools in London this weekend, David Seymour is hosting a Champagne Breakfast to cheer on the All Blacks from Mt Eden. If you’d like to watch the game in good company, bubbles in hand, register fast as places are restricted to exactly two rugby teams of people (not counting reserves). Register here.

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Time to Index Tax Thresholds to Inflation
Rob Hosking has a great piece in the NBR suggesting the budget surplus is a good time to index tax thresholds to inflation. He points out that indexation would prevent the Muldoons and Cullens of the world stealthily taking more and more of taxpayers’ money. It happens because inflation increases nominal wages but not what can be bought with them, so people stealthily move into higher tax brackets.

There’s No Limit to What you Can Achieve….
…if you don’t care who takes the credit. Hosking’s right. ACT has identified that the average family has lost $1036 in the past five years due to this phenomenon. The current era of low inflation is the perfect time to start indexation because it would have little immediate impact, but restrain future governments when inflation resumes. Here is David Seymour raising the question with Bill English back in February.

A Curious Valedictory
Russel Norman gave a curious valedictory where he said: equality before the law is important; civil society groups are important for protecting the environment, and; while there are finite physical resources, there’s no limit to what humans can do with them. We wondered why he’s spent all these years advocating bigger government bureaucracies to regulate and run everything. As is so often with the left, they know government is inefficient, they just think it’d be better if they were running it.

Three Strikes a Success
Five years after the introduction of ACT’s Three Strikes law for violent offenders, statistics are emerging to show the policy has been a double success. It has deterred offending, without the kind of excessive incarceration that naysayers prophesised.

Deterring Offenders
Most offending is declining but one type of offence is declining faster than others: offences by those who have had a first strike warning. From 2005-2010, 3.8 per cent of violent offenders (those who would have received a first strike warning) reoffended. Over the past five years since Three Strikes (2010-2015), offenders have received a strike warning after their first offence and only 1.5 per cent have reoffended. In real numbers, that means 123 fewer victims of serious violent crimes over the last five years.

Most of Population not in Jail
At the time, hysterical opponents thought that Three Strikes would lead to a Californian situation where everybody who stole a pizza would be in jail for life. In reality ACT’s Three Strikes law is narrowly targeted at violent and sexual offenders, meaning that nobody is on track to get life for pizza theft or any other light crime because the law does not allow it. Here is David raising the question with the Minister of Justice last week.

The Crusty Cake Tin
With the entry of David Seymour’s End of Life Choice Bill into the ballot, Free Press has been pondering the ballot process. We understand that important laws such as Marriage Equality begin life as private members’ Bills when a token is pulled from a crusty old cake tin. With all the concerns about youth political apathy, Free Press has a modest proposal to enrich our democracy.

The Schoolchildren’s Ballot Ceremony
Parliamentary processes evolve over time. Free Press observes that school children visit the capital and question time every sitting day. It would be a simple innovation for a pupil to pick the token from the ballot on the floor of the House. It would draw attention to this part of Parliamentary process and add to the children’s experience, for a mere minute of Parliamentary time every second sitting week. A far better use of time than many MPs’ speeches.

Is Annette King a Good Wine?
It’s difficult to dislike Annette King. She is hard working and comes to the House with a sense of fun. She was also a member of the Fourth Labour Government and is only three years younger than Winston Peters. By keeping her on as deputy leader, Labour are effectively saying that after an incubation of 33 years, her time will come in 2017.

An Alternative Hypothesis
An MP who steadily improves over 33 years to become deputy Prime Minister (Bill English took 18, Helen Clark eight) is a great story, but is there a better explanation? Andrew Little claims Jacinda Ardern didn’t want the Deputy Leader’s job, and we should probably believe him. King is actually staying on because Ardern has given Little a massive vote of no confidence.

Underestimate Ardern at Your Peril
Many figures on the right believe Ardern is a flake. She has never landed hits on Ministers in the House, the story goes, so she fundamentally doesn’t have it. Free Press has watched Ardern closely and believes it is foolish to underestimate her. She connects in a way few politicians can, and that cannot be taught. Justin Trudeau wasn’t even the official opposition leader until he became Prime Minister last week.

Davis Still the Real Deal
Free Press has not forgotten Kelvin Davis. We still believe he is the most effective Labour Leader. He has the gravitas to confront John Key, and he is prepared to take initiative and think outside the box, as demonstrated by his trips to Australian detention facilities. With Grant Robertson’s ongoing misfires, we hope for the sake of Parliamentary democracy that Labour will install Davis/Ardern, quickly.

Good Public Policy
The opposition got het up wanting to ban so called facilitation payments to government officials abroad. Everybody wants to end corruption but good public policy is about results not intentions. The New Zealand Government cannot enforce whether a fee demanded by an official in an unfamiliar country was strictly legal in that country but they can shower Kiwi business with extra layers of bureaucracy. Here is David Seymour shooting the Bill down in the House.

Sick of Hearing about David Seymour?
Paul Henry wondered aloud last week why David Seymour and ACT get massively disproportionate attention for a single MP party. Free Press sources say even David gets a little fatigued with it from time to time. Thankfully there is a way you can help. Join or donate to help rebuild ACT. We want to come back with five MPs in 2017.


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