Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search

 


RANZ says Kiwi political pollsters world class


Research Association says Kiwi political pollsters world class


Research Association of New Zealand (RANZ) chief executive Robert Bree said political polling in New Zealand is among the most accurate in the world with 97% to 98% accuracy in the last three general elections.

Mr Bree was commenting on American pollsters not correctly predicting the outcome of the United States presidential election, with only one pollster out of about 200 calling a Donald Trump victory.

He said New Zealand’s MMP system ensures votes largely translate into seats. Pollsters in New Zealand subscribe to the RANZ Polling Code https://researchassociation.wildapricot.org/Resources/Documents/Political%20Polling%20Code%202014.pdf.

Nevertheless, Mr Bree said New Zealand pollsters will be keen to learn the lessons that emerge from American polling which did not detect the level of desire for significant change from the status quo in approximately half the voters.

“The more radical Trump’s opinions and messages, the more they resonated with a disenfranchised mainstream in middle America. The media strongly amplified the anti-Trump sentiment of polls and largely ignored the depth of pro-Trump sentiment.”

Mr Bree said polling shortcomings included:
a. Secret Trump voters (lower participation of the conservative white majority in the opinion polls and over-representation of liberals)
b. Shy Trump voters (people who when polled were too embarrassed to admit they were voting Trump)
c. Voter turnout numbers. Media and Democrats over-estimated the turnout of minorities on voting day when in actual fact the heartland voter came out in record numbers

“The difference between Democrat and Republican vote was actually only around 200,000 votes with Democrats on the upside, but due to the FPP (first past the post) electoral college system and the concentration of those votes in coastal areas, the Democrat vote didn’t translate into electoral wins.”


ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell:
On The Kim Regime

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US had a very clear objective and eventually offered a quid pro quo of the removal of some of its own missiles from Turkey. This time, there’s no clarity about what the US is seeking, or offering.

It hasn’t helped that the US and the global media consistently agree on calling North Korea and its leadership “crazy” and “irrational” and urging it to “come to its senses”. When you treat your opponent as being beyond reason, it gets hard to comprehend what their strategy is, let alone work out the terms of a viable compromise. More>>

 

Recovery: Economic Impact Of Kaikōura Quake Revealed

The report details the impact on small businesses and tourism caused by disruptions to transport infrastructure and the economic impacts... The impact on New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the first 18 months following the earthquake has been estimated at $450-$500 million. More>>

ALSO:

Human Rights Commission: Urgent Need For Action On Seclusion And Restraint

Chief Human Rights Commissioner David Rutherford says that while the report makes for sobering reading, the focus should now be on how the recommendations can be used to reduce the occurrence of seclusion and restraint in New Zealand and, in circumstances where it is necessary, to improve practices. More>>

ALSO:

CORRECTIONS (March 2017):

SCHOOL SECLUSION ROOMS (2016):

$11bn Capital Spend, New Debt Target: Steven Joyce On Budget Priorities

First, delivering better public services for a growing country – providing all New Zealanders with the opportunity to lead successful independent lives... And finally, we remain committed to reducing the tax burden and in particular the impact of marginal tax rates on lower and middle income earners, when we have the room to do so. More>>

ALSO:

JustSpeak Report: Bail Changes To Blame For New Billion Dollar Prison

In 2013 criminal justice spending was falling and the Government was mulling over what to spend the money on. 3 years later there are 10,000 people in prison and a new billion dollar prison is announced. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 

LATEST HEADLINES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Politics
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news