Free Press: ACT’s regular bulletin
Free Press
ACT’s regular bulletin
Bumper Conference
ACT
is on the march and looking forward to our election year
conference this Saturday at Orakei Bay. If you have been
putting it off, it is not too late to register here. Not only will you be showing your
support for ACT’s revival, but the program is filled with
excellent speakers, entertainment, and don’t forget
food.
The Program
See full
details here, but speakers include Leonie
Freeman of Goodman Properties on the housing market, Former
Labour Party President Mike Williams speaking for the Howard
League on how to get smart on crime, and the New Zealand
Initiative’s Eric Crampton on the truth about inequality.
We expect David Seymour’s keynote speech to be his best
yet.
Elsewhere Up and Down the
Country
We have said that this year’s election
will be the most strategic ever, and ACT’s strategic
importance keeps increasing. No party can govern alone and
it is impossible to avoid a left wing, regressive government
without ACT. This week Free Press tours the
machinations up and down the country.
Ohariu
Peter Dunne’s position in
has been made challenging by the entry of Greg O’Connor to
the race and the withdrawal of the Greens’ candidate.
Dunne’s majority is 710, and there are 2700 Green votes up
for grabs. At first blush Dunne is 2000 votes under water.
We wouldn’t write Dunne off but it’s a big hill to
climb.
The Mana-Maori Deal
Today
the Mana and Maori Parties announced that Mana will not
stand in the six Maori electorates other than Te Tai
Tokerau, where the Maori party will give Hone Harawira a
clear run in return. It looks likely that Harawira will win
Te Tai Tokerau back off Labour, and the Maori Party will win
Tamaki Makaurau and Ikaroa-Rawhiti off Labour in addition to
Wairiki, which they already hold.
Who Needs
Who the Most?
We have watched Mana’s Hone
Harawira and Labour’s Kelvin Davis speak in the north, and
now we understand how Davis lost to Harawira four times.
Harawira probably didn’t need the Maori Party to pull its
Te Tai Tokerau Candidate, but two further seats for the
Maori Party just got immeasurably easier. The Maori Party
seem to be the winner.
Disaster for the
Right
The deal only makes sense for Harawira if
he thinks he can bring in another MP on the list, as he
would have had he won TTT last time. Harawira will never
work with the right so it is a gain for the left (any Maori
seats Labour lose will be made up by list seats). Including
Ohariu, the right have probably lost a net two seats in the
past week.
New Zealand First
New
Zealand First should benefit from the level of migration,
and the worldwide tide against globalization. The only
problem is that even their supporters don’t want them in
government, where their track record is hopeless. Winston
Peters has been sacked from cabinet by three different Prime
Ministers and voted out of two electorates. Both times NZ
First has held the balance of power the Government has gone
on a spending spree and mortgage rates have hit 11 per
cent.
In the Lap of the Gods, the Twist of
Fate
Electoral maneuverings are making ACT more
crucial to the outcome of this year’s election. If ACT
fails, the result will be bad Government. If we do succeed
then we will see tax relief, expansion of the Partnership
School program, reform of housing market regulations,
substantial RMA reform, and confrontation of long term
issues such as superannuation, among other things. We will
ensure the next Government preserves the Douglas-Richardson
legacy of sensible economic policy while forcing the next
Government to confront the issues that John Key
neglected.
Help Wanted
If
you’ve been thinking about helping ACT by joining, donating, and or standing as a candidate, think no
longer. Election year has arrived and it’s time to
ACT.