Ethnic diversity projected to rise – Media release

18 May 2017

New Zealand’s population is projected to increase by about 1 million in the next 20 years, with all major ethnic groups growing, Stats NZ said today.

The ‘European or Other’ group is projected to drop from 75 percent of the New Zealand's total population in 2013 to about 66 percent in 2038.

“Slower growth in the broad 'European or Other' ethnic population is due to its older age structure compared to other ethnic groups,” population statistics senior manager Peter Dolan said.

In contrast, ethnic groups with higher birth rates or higher migration gains will increase their share of the population. The Māori ethnic population is projected to increase from 16 percent of the population in 2013 to 18 percent in 2038. The broad Pacific ethnic group is projected to increase from 8 to 10 percent, and the broad Asian ethnic group from 12 to 22 percent, over the 25-year period.

“For the first time we’ve projected some of our smaller ethnic groups to give a better picture of our changing ethnic diversity,” Mr Dolan said.

The projections indicate that the Chinese, Indian, Samoan, and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African ethnic shares of New Zealand's population will increase, with the Chinese and Indian ethnic shares almost doubling.

The ethnic populations overlap because people can and do identify with multiple ethnicities. As a result, the ethnic shares sum to more than 100 percent.

Ends

For more information about these statistics:
• Visit National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038 (update)
• See CSV files for download
• Open the attached files

NationalEthnicPopulationProjections20132038.pdf

nepp201338updatetables.xls

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