Q+A: Prime Minister Bill English
Q+A: Prime Minister Bill English interviewed by Corin Dann
Prime Minister Bill English told
Q+A’s Corin Dann that New Zealanders shouldn’t be too
concerned about what’s happening politically in the United
States.
‘But hour by hour following it would distract, I think, the government from our critical focus, which is on growing the economy, investing in the infrastructure to support it, getting these trade agreements done. So while the US politics is creating some uncertainty. We want to get on with the job of working with like-minded countries to achieve our trade objectives..’
Mr English told Corin Dann as well as a trade agreement, the TPP is also a strategic agreement.
‘I think it’s taken on a bit more relevance as a strategic agreement at a time when the US has pulled back, where China and Japan are taking leadership and where they’re all feeling a bit threatened and destabilised by what’s going on with North Korea. And we’re finding other countries reacting to all that instability by tightening up their focus and probably being a bit more interested and determined about TPP.’
When asked about China and Japan and navigating the issue of the South China Sea Mr English said, ’Japan does look for support over its territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Those are disputes among neighbours in that part of the region. We don’t want to be—We don’t get involved in taking sides on those disputes. Each side contends there isn’t actually a dispute, because each side believes they’ve got the rights of ownership. So our focus is a traditional New Zealand one in that respect, and that is that these are best resolved by international law – in this case, Law of the Sea and various conventions – and we encourage them to stick to that. And I think it’s important that countries like ourselves keep making that point.’
Mr English said the economic gain from a TPP 11 is ‘still quite considerable, but we’ve yet to formalise all the numbers‘
CORIN So is the
argument for the TPP still the one that we just can’t
afford not to be in it?
BILL Yes, essentially.
It’s in our interests positively for jobs and incomes at
home, and I think it’s now got a growing strategic
relevance given these uncertainties around the US
administration, North Korea and various tensions around
South East Asia.
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Q + A
Episode
11
BILL
ENGLISH
Interviewed by CORIN
DANN
BILL Well,
we just, I think, need to understand there’s a lot of
domestic politics in the US that’s pretty robust –
certainly at the moment – a different way of the president
operating. But hour by hour following it would distract, I
think, the government from our critical focus, which is on
growing the economy, investing in the infrastructure to
support it, getting these trade agreements done. So while
the US politics is creating some uncertainty. We want to get
on with the job of working with like-minded countries to
achieve our trade objectives and making sure we don’t get
distracted from the
real--
CORIN But
isn’t the Trump presidency--? Hasn’t that now become the
number-one urgent foreign policy focus for you and your
government because it is creating
uncertainty?
BILL Well,
it does have some effects. I mean, an example is around the
TPP, where the US has pulled out. That has created a
situation where China has now become a standard-bearer for
open trade. Japan has taken a leadership role which just
five or six years ago, you couldn’t have imagined with
respect to open trade and investment flows. So we’re
taking our opportunity that goes with that rather than
following hour by hour the sometimes exciting commentary in
Washington.
CORIN Yeah,
but that exciting commentary in Washington, surely we should
be following it hour by hour, because it’s very difficult
to interpret what America is doing hour by hour, yet it
could have an enormous impact on the Asian region and
is.
BILL Look, it
could—If it has an impact on confidence in the US economy,
that’s something that we can’t influence but would
certainly be concerned about, because the US has been
growing; it’s been pulling along the global economy. That
has helped us. It does appear that despite the domestic
politics, the US is staying focused on the most urgent
security issue in the Asia-Pacific, and that’s the threat
from North Korea, where they are continuing to work with
China, with Japan on bringing pressure to bear on resolving
the North Korean situation without conflict. So if they can
stay focused on that, then we certainly support
them.
CORIN When
did the TPP become a strategic
agreement?
BILL Look,
I—
CORIN In terms
of the Asian region, in terms of defence, because that was
talked up very strongly in your meetings in
Japan.
BILL It
always had a strategic element to it, particularly with the
US showing leadership on trade in the Asia-Pacific – if
you remember President Obama’s pivot to the Asia-Pacific
– but I think it’s taken on a bit more relevance as a
strategic agreement at a time when the US has pulled back,
where China and Japan are taking leadership and where
they’re all feeling a bit threatened and destabilised by
what’s going on with North Korea. And we’re finding
other countries reacting to all that instability by
tightening up their focus and probably being a bit more
interested and determined about
TPP.
CORIN Because
that was probably one of the most surprising elements to
come out of your meeting with Shinzo Abe was the talk about
defence, strategic relationships, closer defence ties –
these types of things with Japan. Doesn’t that create
problems for New Zealand’s foreign policy? Japan is a
rival to China and seems to now be coming into that vacuum
to take more of a leadership role, and we seem to be
supporting them, yet that would be in conflict perhaps not
on North Korea but on other issues, like the South China
Sea, with
China.
BILL You’ve
seen this term around for a few years – ‘the multipolar
world’. As a small open economy, we have to adjust to a
world where different countries are demonstrating direction,
leadership on different issues that are relevant to us. So
in this case, with the US pulling back from trade, it’s
China, Japan taking an interest. They have their own
tensions between them. There’s no doubt about that. We
have the opportunity as a small country to keep those in
balance, as we do between China and the
US.
CORIN But I
come back to the issue about Trump and say we shouldn’t
get too caught up in domestic politics with Trump, but the
removal of the US from the TP, the withdrawal from the
Pacific pivot has created an imbalance, and that imbalance
is that there is now no counterbalance to China’s rising
power. So for you, as prime minister and potentially prime
minister again for another three years, how are you going to
ensure that we can navigate this multipolar world? I mean,
it’s fraught. We have to follow Trump, don’t we? We have
to try and work out what’s going
on.
BILL Well,
look, we have a very strong interest in the stability of the
US domestic politics and predictability about their
direction, particularly on foreign and security
policy.
CORIN We’re
not getting any
predictability.
BILL Well,
they’re going through a process of working out how this
new presidency is going to work. We can’t influence that.
They’ve got their own checks and balances, and I think
you’re seeing all those working. In the meantime, we can
get on with the tasks where we do have direct relevance,
like the
TPP.
CORIN Do you
think that Donald Trump is being unfairly targeted by the
media there?
BILL I
wouldn’t want to speculate about all that. That’s US
domestic politics, and, as we can see, it’s all pretty
energised at the moment and some pretty significant issues
for them. Our hope is that they will be able to stay
focused, particularly on the North Korean issues, because
that’s an immediate security problem, particularly from
the point of view of friends of ours like
Japan.
CORIN Do you
accept, though, that having Donald Trump in the White House
has created the potential for an increased likelihood of a
misstep, a miscalculation? Because that’s the real risk,
isn’t it, with North Korea? I mean, both sides—The
prospect, as you’ve mentioned, of conflict is so terrible
that it’s unlikely, but there is the possibility of a
misstep, and with Trump there, surely there is a greater
risk
now.
BILL Well, all
the participants face risks of those missteps,
including--
CORIN But
has it risen now that Donald Trump is
there?
BILL Well,
on the North Korean issue, the US administration has been
quite direct and reasonably predictable, and they’ve been
getting around the region, explaining their position. That
part of the administration seems to be working reasonably
well. Others face risks of missteps. I mean, China has
influence over North Korea. They’re concerned about how
they might judge that. The real problem here, of course, is
whether North Korea makes some
missteps.
CORIN Did
Japan ask for any support in terms of their ability to be
able to conduct pre-emptive strikes against North Korea –
a change that’s necessary to their constitution? Was that
discussed?
BILL Not
specifically in those terms. We’re aware of Prime Minister
Abe’s intention to try—Well, he’s floated the idea of
changing the
constitution--
CORIN Did
they ask for New Zealand support in terms of Japan taking
more of a defence role in the region? Obviously it’s got
the alliance with the US, but the US is pulling back, so do
they want our
support?
BILL Well,
I think we have some interaction with their self-defence
forces. We will continue that on terms that are suitable to
Japan, but it’s an issue for them as to how far they go
changing their self-defence
constitution.
CORIN And…
Because, obviously – coming back to China – South China
Sea and that issue with Japan is a major bone of contention.
I’m just curious, because if you’re going to be the
prime minister for the next three years, you’re going to
have to lead New Zealand through this tightrope, and by
cosying up closer with Japan, surely that creates some
tensions.
BILL Well,
they have… Look, Japan does look for support over its
territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the East
China Sea. Those are disputes among neighbours in that part
of the region. We don’t want to be—We don’t get
involved in taking sides on those disputes. Each side
contends there isn’t actually a dispute, because each side
believes they’ve got the rights of ownership. So our focus
is a traditional New Zealand one in that respect, and that
is that these are best resolved by international law – in
this case, Law of the Sea and various conventions – and we
encourage them to stick to that. And I think it’s
important that countries like ourselves keep making that
point.
CORIN Is it
frustrating that we’re essentially going to potentially
sign up to the TPP and yet offer America up those same deals
that caused so much controversy around Pharmac copyright –
that they’ll get access to that even though they haven’t
signed
up?
BILL Well, we
have a choice of unravelling the whole thing because
there’s bits that each country doesn’t like, including
New Zealand. If we go down that track, it’ll never
actually happen. This needs to move at speed, and that means
being a bit pragmatic about arrangements that were
negotiated in there with the US. If those arrangements stay
in place, it increases the likelihood that the US would be
incentivised to join it
later.
CORIN And
have you had advice on what the economic gain would be from
a deal if you can get the TPP
11?
BILL Well,
it’s still quite considerable, but we’ve yet to
formalise all the numbers. And in Japan we were presented
with examples which show, for instance, that the Australian
beef imports have a much lower tariff than New Zealand beef
imports. That’s now starting to erode our market in Japan.
So in the absence of the TPP, we could end up losing what is
a pretty high-value
market.
CORIN So is
the argument for the TPP still the one that we just can’t
afford not to be in
it?
BILL Yes,
essentially. It’s in our interests positively for jobs and
incomes at home, and I think it’s now got a growing
strategic relevance given these uncertainties around the US
administration, North Korea and various tensions around
South East
Asia.
CORIN Just
finally, on the issue of the Belt and Road, 18 months now, I
understand, the government— for 18 months, New Zealand and
China will now work on ways in which there could be
infrastructure investments. Is it likely that there will be
from Belt and Road infrastructure investment in New Zealand
from Chinese firms – joint ventures or whatever it might
be – under this
deal?
BILL Look, I
don’t see it connecting too specifically to the Chinese
Belt and Road strategy. It’s got, I think, a lot more
relevance in their own region. We have our own rules about
investment coming into New Zealand. That doesn‘t
change.
CORIN One
other thing – the Asian Investment Bank – the
Infrastructure Investment Bank – which you actually went
up and signed New Zealand up to, would New Zealand ever
consider taking investments from that bank in terms of our
infrastructure
deficit?
BILL If we
fitted the criteria, we would. I mean, we are keen to invest
in the infrastructure for a growing economy. We’re not
going down the line of the opposition parties of saying,
‘Well, let’s stop the economy growing because it’s too
hard to keep up.’ We want to keep up, and different
sources of finance, different models of financing are all
going to be part of how we make those investments over the
next five
years.
CORIN So we
would be open to the Chinese-based infrastructure bank
investing in New Zealand in the right
projects?
BILL In
the right projects. We’ve got a range of—You know,
there’s Chinese banks in New Zealand now. There’s
Japanese construction companies. They’ve had a long
history of doing some projects in New Zealand, and if it’s
going to help us deal with the issues that are relevant to
our households, to our businesses, to our jobs and incomes,
then we’ll use
them.
Transcript
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