Trans Tasman's Political Pulse - 08 June 2017

08 June, 2017

A Tale Of Two NZs:
Parties Paint Different Pictures

INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS - As coverage of the Budget subsides, those in political parties’ backrooms will be eagerly awaiting polling results to see if the sands have shifted at all. Finance Minister Steven Joyce did not exactly deliver an election-year lolly scramble.

But the Families Incomes Package gave some tax relief for many and aided others, mostly in the form of the Accommodation Supplement and Working for Families. All up, the total cost of the package is an eye-watering $6.5bn over four years, rising from $604m in 2017/18, through to $2bn a year.

Complaints it was spread too thinly underline how expensive shifts in tax are in terms of the Govt losing revenue.

Budget speeches also showed political parties painting very different pictures of NZ. Bill English described a confident country going forward, diversifying, growing and dealing with problems in a measured way. Opposition parties saw a country crippled by housing problems, stuck in poverty, swamped by immigrants and one whose polluted rivers are unfit for swimming in.

The Govt is hoping the Budget will consolidate its support, which the party’s own polling shows to be several points above the 43% of most recent public polls. Other sampling has shown housing and healthcare topping the list of priorities for NZers: while 49% of those polled agreed tax cuts are “very important,” 64% believe there are more important calls on Govt funding. This will give some hope to Labour.

The first poll (Colmar Brunton) since the Budget showed National up three points to 49%. Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance fell two points to 39% with support for Labour unchanged at 30% and the Greens down two points to 9%. Support for NZ First was up one point to 9%.

The tale of two NZs and which one voters perceive to be true will be crucial in responses to the Budget and the looming election.

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